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Who would rule Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?
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As anti-regime protests continue to spread across Iran and questions swirl about the durability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule, a central question looms: Who would actually take power if the Islamic Republic were to collapse?
The answer, according to regional experts and Iranian opposition figures, is far from clear. It may depend less on ideology than on how the regime falls and whether Iran’s security forces fracture or hold.
Collapse matters as much as succession
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the critical variable is not simply whether the regime collapses, but how it happens.
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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks after casting his vote for the presidential runoff election on July 5, 2024 in Tehran, Iran. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
«Despite being supreme leader, one has to wonder, especially post-war and with limited public appearances, how much Khamenei is directly governing the affairs of the country,» Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. He warned Western governments against backing a cosmetic transition that merely reshuffles elites.
«One thing I fear is the Western temptation for a Maduro-type or Egypt-type model,» he said, referring to scenarios in which entrenched security forces retain power under new leadership. «That will only be playing musical chairs at the top and will not provide the Iranian people a pathway for meaningful change.»
Ben Taleblu argued that Iran’s opposition faces a logistical challenge more than an ideological one: translating sustained street protests into organized political power before security forces reassert control.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Special forces walk on the U.S. flag during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, in Tehran, Iran, on March 28, 2025. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The decisive role of security forces
Multiple experts agreed that Iran’s future hinges on whether the regime’s coercive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia and the regular military, remains intact.
Ben Taleblu said the key factor is whether segments of the security forces defect, refuse orders or fragment. «What has to be chipped away is the regime’s coercive power,» he said, adding that a transition would require sustained protests, economic strikes and cracks within security units.
Without that, analysts warn, Iran could see a scenario in which clerical figureheads disappear but real power remains in the hands of armed institutions.
«That’s the fear,» Ben Taleblu said. «If the state plays musical chairs, the street will not settle for it. That means a bumpier road ahead.»
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Members of the Basij paramilitary force hold Iranian flag, Lebanese flag, flag of Hashd Shabi, flag of Quds force’s Fatemiyoun Brigade, and a flag of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as the Jerusalem day, in downtown Tehran, April 14, 2023. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Could the military take over?
Some analysts point to historical precedents, including Egypt, where the military stepped in amid unrest. Benny Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said a military-led transition cannot be ruled out, but would be fraught.
«IRGC generals could theoretically attempt a coup,» Sabti told Fox News Digital, stressing that Iran’s military institutions are not monolithic. He distinguished between the IRGC, which he described as an ideological and asymmetric force, and the regular army, which he said is more professional and nationally oriented.
Sabti highlighted former armed forces chief Habibollah Sayyari as an example of a figure who has voiced limited criticism from within the system. Still, he cautioned that criticism alone does not make a leader and said charisma matters deeply in Iranian politics.
Iranian protests intensify for the 12th day. (The National Council of Resistance of Iran)
«There is a problem of charisma,» Sabti said. «In Iran, it is very important.»
Political prisoners and internal leaders
Despite international attention on jailed activists, experts are skeptical that Iran’s next political leadership would emerge from within the country’s prison system.
Ben Taleblu said decades of repression have made it nearly impossible to cultivate political leadership inside Iran. «What will come from within are the forces of revolution,» he said. «Political leadership has to be built outside.»
Sabti echoed that view, saying freed prisoners would likely become part of a broader system rather than dominant leaders.
«There won’t be leaders coming out of prison,» he said. «They will be part of a new system, but not charismatic leaders.»
Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi holds a press conference in Paris on June 23, 2025. (Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images)
The exiled opposition and the Pahlavi question
Supporters of Reza Pahlavi say he is emerging as a focal point for opposition mobilization amid escalating unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi publicly called on Iranians to chant at 8 p.m. from their homes or in the streets and his aides said large crowds responded across multiple cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.
Those close to Pahlavi describe him as advocating a secular, democratic Iran committed to human rights, while rejecting claims that he is seeking to restore the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly said the form of Iran’s future system should be decided by the people through a free constitutional process.
«My role is not to tip the scales in favor of either monarchy or republic,» Pahlavi said. «I will remain entirely impartial in the process to help ensure that Iranians finally have the right to choose freely.»
Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the «Iran So Far Away» Substack, told Fox News Digital that Pahlavi is the only viable unifying figure capable of guiding a transition, a view strongly contested by others in the diaspora.
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«The only person who can see this through is the crown prince,» Zand said, arguing that any prominent figure inside Iran would be swiftly eliminated by the regime. She dismissed alternative opposition figures as lacking legitimacy inside the country.
Zand said chants supporting Pahlavi during recent protests reflect genuine sentiment, not fabrication, though such claims are difficult to independently verify amid internet shutdowns and state censorship.
Some experts caution that while Pahlavi has visibility in the West and among parts of the Iranian public, he remains a polarizing figure, particularly among Iranians wary of monarchy or external influence.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets Maryam Rajav at Ashraf-3 – May 16, 2022, in Albania. (NCRI)
Rajavi and organized opposition groups
Another long-standing opposition movement, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, has received backing from some senior U.S. political figures from across the aisle over the years, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani.
In a statement to Fox News Digital, Rajavi said change «will not come from outside Iran, nor will it be delivered by the will of foreign capitals,» arguing that only an organized, nationwide resistance can overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Rajavi pointed to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and its «Resistance Units» as the core force behind recent uprisings, claiming they have played a decisive role in organizing protests and confronting security forces at the cost of heavy casualties. She said the National Council of Resistance of Iran does not seek power for itself, but instead proposes a six-month provisional period following the regime’s overthrow, culminating in free elections for a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for a democratic, secular republic.
NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi stands with former Vice President Mike Pence. (NCRI )
«Once established, all authority will be transferred to that Assembly, which will both select the provisional government and draft the constitution of the new republic,» Rajavi said. «Gender equality in all its facets, the separation of religion and state, autonomy for Iranian Kurdistan and many other urgent matters have been ratified in detail by the NCRI.»
Rajavi also cited what she described as broad international backing for the NCRI’s platform. Critics and analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital dispute the group’s level of support inside Iran. Sabti said the MEK’s history of violence in the 1980s and its rigid ideology have alienated younger Iranians.
Speaking to an NCRI conference in Washington D.C. last November, Pompeo pushed back against critics, stating «A thriving, democratic, popular government in Iran—not a theocracy, not a monarchy, not an oppressive regime. This will be a great thing for the entire world. We are waiting for that day, and it will be a blessing to us all.»
Ben Taleblu also warned against Western governments «playing favorites» among exiled factions, saying legitimacy must ultimately come from inside Iran.
Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on Jan. 9, 2026. (Social Media/via Reuters)
No clear successor and a long road ahead
Despite intense speculation, experts agreed on one point: there is no clear successor waiting in the wings.
«We are not there yet,» Sabti said, noting that Khamenei remains alive, and the security forces have not fractured.
Ben Taleblu described the moment as a marathon rather than a sprint, warning against simplistic narratives about regime collapse.
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«This is about getting the best bridgehead to a post-Islamic Republic Iran,» he said, «so that the forces of revolution inside can finally become voters and choose their own fate.»
iran,middle east,world protests
El Grupo Patio, considerado uno de los holdings inmobiliarios más destacados de Chile, atraviesa una grave crisis interna derivada de acusaciones de manipulación en la valoración de la compañía y la presentación de querellas por parte de accionistas y afectados.
La empresa, fundada a comienzos de los años 2000 por la familia Jalaff, cuenta con más de USD 4.000 millones en activos y opera en Chile, Perú, México y Estados Unidos. En los últimos años, el grupo se consolidó como un referente en el mercado inmobiliario latinoamericano.
La crisis actual se originó tras la aparición de actas de directorio que reflejan presuntas malas prácticas y decisiones cuestionables. Este conflicto, reportan medios locales, ha generado una crisis de confianza, que podría limitar el acceso a financiamiento y afectar la relación con acreedores y la percepción general del mercado.
El foco del conflicto se sitúa en la determinación del precio de la participación de Antonio Jalaff, uno de los fundadores, basada en un informe elaborado por la consultora Econsult.
Un grupo de 23 aportantes y herederos de la familia Jalaff presentaron acciones judiciales, argumentando que el informe fue solicitado y financiado por quienes buscaban adquirir esas acciones, dando lugar, según su denuncia, a una valoración artificialmente baja.
Para la querella no hay dudas de que dicho informe fue solicitado y financiado por los compradores, lo que habría resultado en una apreciación artificialmente deprimida del real valor de Grupo Patio.
Según la querella, el informe de Econsult “construyó una imagen económica distorsionada y artificialmente depreciada del Grupo Patio, generando una apariencia falsa sobre el estado financiero del conglomerado”.
A esto se añade, según la denuncia, la falta de transparencia en la metodología, generando cuestionamientos sobre la objetividad del valor fijado y un fuerte impacto en el fondo administrado por el holding.
En declaraciones recogidas por Diario Financiero, Antonio Jalaff manifestó su inquietud sobre el daño sufrido por la empresa y su propia reputación. “Aquí hay gente que ha hecho malas prácticas para inflar su trayectoria empresarial y su ego, a costa del daño económico a acreedores que confiaron en mí y en una compañía que fundé junto a mi padre”, afirmó.
Ante el 4º Juzgado de Garantía de Santiago, Antonio Jalaff presentó una querella por estafa. En ella sostiene que la venta de su participación se realizó bajo una “maquinación fraudulenta”. El perjuicio económico estimado alcanza las 700.000 UF (unos USD 28,5 millones), al haberse concretado la operación a un precio que describe como artificialmente disminuido.
Jalaff denunció: “No nos quedó otra opción. Fueron los compradores y sus asesores quienes impusieron el valor final de la venta, y nos vimos obligados a aceptarlo… nunca aprobé la venta a ese precio, sino que fui arrastrado por las circunstancias y los quórums de las respectivas sociedades”, afirmó entonces.
Álvaro Jalaff sostuvo una posición similar y acusó en El Mostrador, que otros accionistas buscaron aislar a su familia, facilitando el control hostil del grupo.
La operación fue estructurada por Larraín Vial, la mayor corredora de bolsa y firma de finanzas corporativas de Chile. Su historial reciente, que incluye otros escándalo de corrucpción conocido como el caso Factop, agrega presión reputacional al proceso.
Las repercusiones de este caso se extienden más allá del ámbito judicial, impactan la confianza en la gobernanza corporativa y la transparencia financiera dentro de los grandes conglomerados regionales. Los efectos, advierten medios locales, podrían convertirse en un precedente para la gestión empresarial y la dinámica de poder en el sector inmobiliario de Chile y Latinoamérica.
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Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro’s regime was crucial to propping up America’s closest Communist neighbor, Cuba, for many years — but with the despot now in a New York prison, U.S. lawmakers and analysts are turning their attention to Mexico, a top U.S. ally and trading partner that has quietly taken Venezuela’s place.
As of January, Mexico reportedly accounted for 13,000 barrels per day, or 44%, of Cuba’s 2025 oil imports, the top factor keeping what some lawmakers describe as a teetering economy barely afloat. With renewed trade talks approaching in July, Republican lawmakers and conservative analysts are calling for increased pressure on Mexico to cut off Cuba’s oil lifeline.
The Trump administration is also weighing instituting a maritime blockade on oil imports to Cuba, according to Politico. The outlet noted that the move would be an escalation of its previously-stated plan to cut off imports from Venezuela, where Maduro’s former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is now acting president. Such a blockade could spur crisis in the country and lead to the economic collapse of the Castro/Diaz-Canel regime for which much of the U.S. diaspora has long hoped.
«The Cuban government was, even before this action with Maduro, probably at the weakest point that the regime has been in the last 65 years,» said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., the only Cuban-born member of Congress.
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Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, left; Cuban dictator Miguel Diaz-Canel, right. (Sergio Morales/Getty Images; Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)
«This just makes them weaker. My one concern is that it appears that Mexico is now trying to prop them up. And so, the oil that they were receiving from Venezuela is now being supplanted by oil being received by Mexico.»
The Florida Republican said Mexico is in such a position in part because it is «governed by a Marxist,» casting criticism of socialist-party-aligned President Claudia Sheinbaum.
«The oil that they were receiving from Venezuela is now being supplanted by oil being received by Mexico,» he said.
«It doesn’t matter that [the Miguel Diaz-Canel] regime [in Cuba] has been suppressing and oppressing its people for 65 years, as long as they have the right ideology.»
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Gimenez said that Congress could use upcoming intracontinental trade talks over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to pressure Sheinbaum to stop supporting the dictatorship just 90 miles from Fort Zachary Taylor, at the southern tip of his district.
Cuba is already experiencing rolling blackouts, inability to feed its people, medical shortages and a nosedive in tourism due to those developments, he said.
«Would it be okay for us to kind of nudge them over the edge? I don’t know a problem with that,» he quipped.
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Andres Martinez-Fernandez, a Latin America and national security policy analyst who leads the Heritage Foundation’s research on the region, told Fox News Digital that U.S. tolerance for Mexico’s new position may not last.
«It’s a major issue,» he said, adding the Mexico-Cuba relationship got to «worrying levels» under Sheinbaum’s predecessor and now involves a Cuban medical program he called «forced slavery for revenue» involving Cuban doctors arriving in Mexico and sending remittances home – much of which can get funneled to the regime.
If Mexico City wants to continue aiding Havana, it had better prepare for «severe pushback,» he said, similarly citing the USMCA negotiations that Gimenez mentioned.
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Those aspects, along with President Donald Trump’s discontent with Sheinbaum’s resistance to U.S. action against cartels could come to a head, he suggested, calling Mexico’s attitude «mendacious and duplicitous.»
«It says nothing good if they decide, to maintain this overt support for the Cuban regime as we continue to see this inadequate action on the cartel front.»
Trump declared earlier this month that there will be «no more oil or money going to Cuba – Zero» and the Department of War has been seizing sanctioned «shadow-fleet» oil tankers.
A White House official said Cuba is failing of its own volition and that its rulers suffered a major setback in losing support from the ousted Maduro regime. Trump believes Cuba should make a deal «before it is too late.»
Meanwhile, the aforementioned USMCA talks are scheduled to take place in July, when the trilateral trade deal undergoes a scheduled review.
The U.S. is likely to seek additional concessions from Mexico and Canada amid trade disputes, the Center for Strategic and International Studies predicted last year, with the interceding Mexico-Cuba development likely to further invigorate such demands.
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A man waves a Cuban flag at a protest. (Yamil Lage/Getty Images)
The Sheinbaum administration, which did not respond to a request for comment, has reportedly painted its shipments as «humanitarian aid» for the Cuban people.
If Mexico continues oil shipments, it may lead to additionally tense relations between the U.S. and its southern neighbor, already frayed by Trump’s disdain for Sheinbaum’s steadfast refusal to allow American intercession against drug cartels.
If the shipments slacken, that may portend well for the aforementioned upcoming trade negotiations.
As for Cuba, many pro-democracy voices, particularly among the South Florida diaspora, hope the 66-year Castro/Diaz-Canel regime is not long for this world.
Martinez-Fernandez added the regime is likely facing one of the most difficult moments in its history; Mexico’s role aside.
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In the 1990s, Cuba lost its larger «patron,» the Soviet Union, he said, and hit a rough patch until Hugo Chavez took power in 1999.
He added that while there has been Western concern about a Chinese foothold there, Beijing appears to have largely «cut ties» and said «there’s nothing new here.»
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«I do think that there is a likely need for additional developments before we see… That kind of next step collapse of the regime itself,» he said.
Fox News Digital reached out to the White House, Commerce Department and the Palacio Nacional for comment.
venezuelan political crisis,cuba,mexico,location mexico,donald trump,energy
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