INTERNACIONAL
China threat looms large as Taiwan votes in pivotal election: ‘choice between war and peace’
The future of Taiwan hangs in the balance as voters head to the polls to pick their next president in what remains a closely watched contest with intense interest from China and the U.S.
«This election has been a real test for whether the Taiwan electorate is willing to push back against Chinese pressure and coercion and make an independent choice for who they want to be their next leader,» Matt McInnis, senior fellow for the Institute for the Study of War’s China program, told Fox News Digital.
«That choice is going to determine the nature of the security situation over the next four years — in particular in the western Pacific,» McInnis said, noting the most expected result will see the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win.
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People vote for the presidential election at a polling station in southern Taiwan’s Tainan city on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. Taiwanese are casting their votes Saturday for a new president in an election that could chart the trajectory of its relations with China over the next four years. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
The DPP faces stiff competition from the Koumintang (KMT), or Chinese Nationalist Party, which has tried to cast the ruling party as dangerous leadership that will steer the country towards conflict with China due to its insistence on pursuing formal independence.
William Lai of the DPP leads with an average of 36% of the vote, while KMT’s Hou Yu-ih has 31% and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je sits at 24% as of Jan. 1, according to The Economist.
Taiwan does not release any new polls within 10 days of the election, but voter sentiment shows that some polls have the leading candidates separated by just 1%.
Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) hold up banners during a campaign rally in Taipei City, Taiwan, on Thursday. (Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)
McInnis noted that Taiwan officials have already highlighted «pervasive» Chinese information operations «at unprecedented levels,» framing the election as a «choice between war and peace.»
China has not publicly named a preferred candidate or specified what the «right» choice is, but Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office labeled DPP’s candidate William Lai as an «obstinate Taiwan independence worker» who would further promote separatist activities.
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Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry condemned China for «once again blatantly intimidating the Taiwanese people and the international community» and trying to influence the election.
«China has tried to shape that narrative over the past 10 to 12 months, and I think they’ve been fairly effective with that,» McInnis explained, arguing that «China’s influence operations, psychological operations during the campaign… ultimately is not dramatically swinging the election in the way they would like it to.»
Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate William Lai votes in southern Taiwan’s Tainan city on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Beijing has employed other tactics to influence Taiwanese voters, including economic pressure and some broad military coercion: China launched a satellite on Tuesday that flew over Taiwan as it exited the atmosphere, and some surveillance balloons wandered into Taiwan’s airspace, China expert Gordon Chang told Fox News Digital.
«[Chinese President] Xi Jinping in his 2024 New Year message actually listed the annexation of Taiwan in the portion of his speech where he put all the things he hoped would occur [this year],» Chang explained. «Of course, there have been threats to cut off trade, they have worked very closely in China with some of the candidates in Taiwan, so the election interference has been substantial.»
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Chang also noted the negative impact China’s pressure has had on its ambitions, prompting the voters to instead focus on geopolitical issues and «issues of identity.»
«Those who identify as Chinese only [on Taiwan] is usually less than 5%, and that is the core support of KMT,» Chang said.
Hou Yu-ih, presidential candidate for the Kuomintang and mayor of New Taipei City, arrives for a news conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Thursday. (Chan Long Hei/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Chang called Taiwan’s election «fascinating,» arguing that even if China’s preferred candidate should win, he expects to see «friction» between the island and the mainland.
«If you have a pro-China president… there’s going to be friction regardless of who was elected, and we have just got to make sure we do not permit China to interfere anymore,» he said.
CHINA FLOATS PLAN TO FOSTER ECONOMIC TIES WITH DEMOCRAT-LED CITIES: REPORT
Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at The Great Hall of the People on November 22, 2023 in Beijing, China. (Florence Lo – Pool/Getty Images)
Lai has tried to reach out and start a dialogue with Beijing following eight years of near-total non-communication, but insisted that he would continue to «build up Taiwan’s defense deterrence, strengthen Taiwan’s capabilities in economic security, enhance partnerships with democracies around the world and maintain stable and principled leadership on cross-Strait relations.»
Lai has also, in turn, portrayed the KMT as a pro-Beijing group, which has various levels of allegiance to the mainland ranging from a similar stance to the DPP’s own to one that seeks distance with the U.S. to maintain strong, positive relations with the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), according to The Diplomat. A small number of die-hard party members still seek reunification with China — a stance at odds with the opinion of the public.
Supporters of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) attend an election campaign rally in Taipei, Taiwan, on Thursday. (Annice Lyn/Getty Images)
Heino Klinck, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and military attaché to China, puts a lot of weight on public sentiment to maintain autonomy.
«The election in Taiwan is a manifestation of what a vibrant democracy looks like,» Klinck told Fox News Digital, calling Taiwan «a very striking juxtaposition to what the People’s Republic of China represents.»
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«It evolved relatively peacefully from an autocratic one-party nation to a very, very vibrant democracy in all its forms, and it shows you that democracy can work,» Klinck added, suggesting that, «From a U.S.-Taiwan bilateral perspective… whoever will be leading [Taiwan], it’s not going to change much.»
«I could see nuances in the approach that a new Taiwanese president, depending on who it is, will take with respect to the cross-Strait relationship and, more specifically, from a national security and defense perspective,» Klinck explained. He highlighted concerns that the KMT might «roll back some of the progress that has been made under the leadership of President Tsai [Ing-wen].»
Klinck visited Taiwan as part of a delegation from the Ronald Reagan Foundation to demonstrate the strong ties between the U.S. and Taiwan and meet with Tsai, who stressed the shared values of freedom and democracy between the two countries.
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Klinck stressed that as much as the election itself matters, he would suggest keeping an eye on the months between the election and the inauguration in May, during which time he expects Beijing to ramp up pressure on the president-elect — especially in the event DPP’s Lai does win.
«I envision that the Chinese will escalate their pressure on the president-elect because the inaugural speech will set a tone and the Chinese will try to influence that tone,» Klinck said.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
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El anuncio de Starmer
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Un centro del NHS en Londres. Foto: AFPUn plan laborista
El exgerente del Banco Central canadiense Mark Carney prestó juramento como el nuevo primer ministro de Canadá el viernes, y ahora intentará guiar a su país a través de una guerra comercial provocada por el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump, una amenaza de anexión y unas elecciones federales esperadas.
Carney, de 59 años, reemplaza al primer ministro Justin Trudeau, quien anunció su renuncia en enero, pero permaneció en el poder hasta que el Partido Liberal eligió a un nuevo líder. Se espera ampliamente que Carney convoque a elecciones generales en los próximos días o semanas.
El Partido Liberal en el poder parecía estar preparado para una histórica derrota electoral este año hasta que Trump declaró la guerra económica y amenazó con anexar todo el país como un 51er estado de Estados Unidos. Ahora el partido y su nuevo líder podrían salir victoriosos.
Carney ha afirmado que está listo para reunirse con Trump si éste muestra “respeto por la soberanía canadiense” y está dispuesto a adoptar “un enfoque común, un enfoque mucho más integral para el comercio”.
Trump impuso aranceles del 25% al acero y aluminio canadienses y está amenazando con aranceles generales sobre todos los productos canadienses a partir del 2 de abril. Ha amenazado con coerción económica en sus amenazas de anexión y sugirió que la frontera es una línea ficticia.
La guerra comercial de Estados Unidos y los comentarios de Trump sobre convertir a Canadá en el 51er estado de Estados Unidos han enfurecido a los canadienses, quienes abuchean el himno estadounidense en los partidos de la NHL y la NBA. Algunos están cancelando viajes al sur de la frontera, y muchos evitan comprar productos estadounidenses cuando pueden.
El aumento del nacionalismo canadiense ha fortalecido las posibilidades del Partido Liberal en unas elecciones parlamentarias que se esperan en días o semanas, y los resultados del Partido Liberal han mejorado en las encuestas de opinión.
Carney, quien navegó la crisis al frente del Banco de Canadá desde 2008, y luego en 2013 cuando se convirtió en el primer no ciudadano británico en dirigir el Banco de Inglaterra —ayudando a gestionar los peores impactos del Brexit en el Reino Unido— ahora intentará guiar a Canadá a través de la guerra comercial provocada por Trump.
Carney, un exejecutivo de Goldman Sachs sin experiencia en política, se convierte en el 24to primer ministro de Canadá.
“Le irá muy bien. Es respetado internacionalmente”, dijo el ex primer ministro Jean Chrétien a los periodistas el viernes. Pero, añadió: “No hay una solución mágica. Esta no es una situación normal. Nunca hemos visto a alguien que cambia de opinión cada cinco minutos como presidente de Estados Unidos. Crea problemas en todas partes, no solo en Canadá”.
INTERNACIONAL
Israel faces new Syria challenge as it adjusts to new strategy amid regional power struggle for influence
TEL AVIV — The Israeli Air Force on Thursday struck the headquarters of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization in Damascus, Syria, amid ongoing instability in the country following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by an al Qaeda-linked insurgency.
After the fall of Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024, Israel deployed troops to the demilitarized buffer zone with Syria while also launching a diplomatic offensive to shape the balance of power.
«The deployment of Israeli forces is concentrated around the Syrian [side of Mount] Hermon, the high grounds in that area and below that on the northern part of the Syrian Golan Heights — more or less along, but not beyond, the Bravo Line [marking the end of the buffer zone],» Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan Conricus, a former IDF spokesman and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
EVANGELICAL LEADER SAYS US MUST PROTECT SYRIAN CHRISTIANS FROM ATTACKS BY JIHADI TERRORISTS
The Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, visited and conducted a situational assessment in the Area of Separation in Syria. (IDF)
He continued, «The primary threat is a ground invasion towards Israeli communities on the Golan Heights by various jihadi elements. Until the political and military situation stabilizes and Israel can have security guarantees that there is indeed a sovereign entity in control of Syria, which will limit the approach by various terror organizations, Israeli troops will be deployed.»
While many global players may be willing to turn a blind eye to the carnage in Syria in hopes of resolving the nearly 15-year crisis, analysts say Israel has no such illusions, prompting the IDF to conduct over 300 strikes in the country, including against Assad regime air force bases and suspected chemical weapons sites, in the immediate aftermath of the regime change.
On Sunday, Israel seemingly upped the ante when the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, held a situational assessment in the buffer zone with Syria. Zamir was the first chief of staff to have entered Syria.
«Immediately upon the fall of the regime, [Israel] devastated Syrian military capabilities to make sure some advanced capabilities and air defense [systems] would not fall into the hands of this regime and would be cleared in case Israel has any future desire to overfly [in] Syria,» said John Hannah, a Senior Fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).
Security forces loyal to the interim Syrian government ride in the back of a vehicle moving along a road in Syria’s western city of Latakia on March 9. (Omar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images)
«They’ve [also] set up checkpoints in certain Druze areas right on the border [and] declared their willingness to protect the Druze. Israel has a significant Druze minority of its own who are loyal and good citizens of Israel who fight in its army. So, Israel has a deep domestic concern and interest with making sure that Druze communities near its borders [in Syria] are not subject to the kinds of threats and slaughter that we saw over the weekend along the [Syrian] coast,» he added.
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Some 1,000 Alawites, a minority sect of Shiite Islam, as well as a number of Christians were murdered over the course of a few days last week in the coastal provinces of Tartus and Latakia. The killings have laid bare concerns over the new Sunni Islamist government led by al-Sharaa, commander of the al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that deposed Assad.
A banner depicting then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin and reading «Justice Prevails» is displayed along a highway in the Syrian capital of Damascus on March 8, 2022. (Louai Beshara/AFP via Getty Images)
Conricus said that the massacres have validated Israel’s strategy, emphasizing that the persecution of the Alawites, Christians, Kurds and Druze population constitutes a danger to regional stability.
«There is a lot of sectarian violence by various foreign jihadi groups, which is a threat. Until only the Syrian state controls the weapons, Israel cannot jeopardize the life of Israeli civilians,» he said.
«We know Hezbollah and Iranian factions continue to try to smuggle weapons into Syria, with Tehran still trying to operate proxies. This is compounded by Turkish imperialistic behavior, which can lead to confrontation,» he added. «I think trying to keep the borders defined by the French at the end of World War I will be a challenge for the Syrian state.»
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Ahmed al-Sharaa Hayat, former al Qaeda terrorist and current Interim President of Syria, in Idlib, Syria, on the border with Turkey on Feb. 7, 2023. (Omar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images)
Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum who has reported from Syria, told Fox News Digital that Jerusalem’s aim is for Syria to remain decentralized and weak, rather than united under the leadership of jihadi forces.
«Turkey is the main backer of HTS, and Israel regards Ankara as a hostile country where Hamas had an active operations office. Turkey has been supportive of Hamas in the war,» he said.
«While Russia is opposed to the global bloc led by the U.S., of which Israel is a part, there is no direct clash between the two nations. Russia did not seek to impede Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran in Syria.»
Israel is reportedly pressuring the Trump administration to ensure Syria remains fragmented, by giving the Russians a green light to maintain its bases in the country to counter Turkey.
People wave guns in the air as they gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime in Umayyad Square in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024. (Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images)
In 2015, Russia intervened in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime, setting up outposts in the Middle East for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Jerusalem and Moscow have created a deconfliction mechanism to avoid direct military encounters when the IDF strikes Iranian terror assets in Syria, along with those destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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«HTS is an organization that Israel knows well. It was there for several years prior to fall of Assad and its record shows it is a Sunni Jihadi Islamist organization supportive of [Hamas’] Oct. 7 [massacre] and opposed to Israel and Jews,» Spyer said.
«Israel’s experience prior to Oct. 7, on Oct. 7, and in the Gaza war taught Israelis not to have illusions regarding Sunni Islamists even when they say they are moderate,» he added.
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