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Balotaje en Colombia: un país dividido elige presidente entre un libertario y un socialista

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Una Colombia dividida en dos elige este domingo qué rumbo tomará el país desde el 7 de agosto, cuando Gustavo Petro termine su mandato y deje en nuevas manos la difícil tarea de gobernar una nación marcada por la peor ola de inseguridad en décadas, un panorama económico complejo y un legado de mejoras en el área social que lograron reducir la pobreza y la desigualdad.

En un extremo del Parque de la 93, en el exclusivo barrio de Chapinero, en Bogotá, un puñado de militantes reparte folletos que llaman a votar por Iván Cepeda. Unas cuadras más allá, en la fachada de un edificio, un inmenso cartel sólo muestra la imagen de un tigre, en alusión al candidato de derecha populista Abelardo De la Espriella, quien ha usado a ese animal como símbolo de su campaña.

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Son las pocas señales que aquí marcan que este domingo habrá elecciones. Casi no se ve en las calles propaganda política. Pero todos saben que es mucho lo que se juega en las urnas.

De la Espriella, un recién llegado a la política que hizo fortuna como abogado y empresario, fue la sorpresa de la primera vuelta del 31 de mayo cuando cosechó 10,3 millones de votos (el 43,78%) y dejó en segundo lugar al senador oficialista Cepeda, que hasta entonces figuraba como favorito en los sondeos y obtuvo 9,7 millones de votos, (el 40,98%). En un lejano tercer lugar quedó Paloma Valencia, la candidata de la derecha más moderada, y mucho más atrás las figuras del centro, en una muestra clara de la crisis que atraviesan los partidos tradicionales, como se ha visto en varios países de la región.

En un país de algo más de 53 millones de habitantes, la polarización quedó bien clara: entre los dos candidatos ubicados en los extremos sumaron cerca del 85% del total de votos. Queda entonces una pequeña porción de votantes que ahora tendrán que volcarse hacia un lado o el otro.

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Los últimos sondeos -que por ley sólo podían difundirse hasta el domingo pasado- mostraban una ventaja para De la Espriella de entre 4 y 7 puntos porcentuales sobre Cepeda, quien hasta último momento intentó seducir a los votantes del centro, a los indecisos y a quienes no fueron a votar hace tres semanas. El voto aquí no es obligatorio y en la primera vuelta la participación fue cercana al 58% del padrón. Ahora ambos candidatos esperan ampliar ese porcentaje para sumar más apoyos.

Desconfianza en las encuestas

Pero los sondeos, se sabe, muestran una foto bastante parcial y han fallado no sólo aquí sino en procesos electorales en las Américas y en Europa. En Colombia, particularmente, las encuestas están muy cuestionadas y ahora debieron ceñirse a una nueva legislación que incorpora criterios mucho más estrictos, según explicó a Clarín Daniel Poveda, coordinador de análisis de la consultora Colombia Risk Analysis.

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“Somos un poco escépticos de la brecha a favor de De la Espriella. Es posible que gane, pero por un margen más estrecho”, señaló el experto en análisis político. En estos últimos días, la posibilidad de una diferencia de pocos votos entre los candidatos alimentó el temor a disputas y conflictos.

Petro todavía no reconoció oficialmente el resultado de la primera vuelta, que sorprendió a un oficialismo que se sentía ganador. Cepeda también presentó dudas al comienzo pero terminó por aceptar los datos unos días después, cuando era evidente que las denuncias de supuestas irregularidades presentadas por el presidente carecían de consistencia.

Ante rumores de posibles movilizaciones en la noche del domingo, la policía ya ha preparado un fuerte despliegue de seguridad para la jornada electoral.

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Un mural del candidato oficialista Iván Cepeda y su compañera de fórmula Aida Quilcué, en Bogotá. Foto: EFE

Un «referéndum» sobre Gustavo Petro

En este clima turbio, esta elección es para muchos una suerte de “referéndum” sobre el gobierno de Petro, el primero de izquierda –o mejor, socialdemócrata- en este país que durante décadas siguió una senda conservadora.

Con sus desaciertos y falencias, Petro deja el poder con una imagen positiva relativamente alta, cercana al 40%, sobre todo por el apoyo de los sectores populares a los que ha dado voz y espacio por primera vez.

“Petro ha diversificado por primera vez las preocupaciones de los colombianos. Ya no es un país que gravita alrededor del tema de seguridad, del enfrentamiento con grupos armados, como ha sido durante décadas, sino que le preocupa la corrupción, la salud, la economía. Es un país que ya no está en modo primario de sobrevivencia”, interpreta Sergio Guzmán, director de Colombia Risk Analysis.

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Al actual presidente le ha ido bien en áreas como inclusión social, pues se ha ocupado de sectores que habían sido históricamente postergados. A costa de un gasto fiscal inédito, el gobierno ha aumentado el salario mínimo, implementado programas sociales y ha llevado coberturas de salud a zonas rurales o aisladas donde nunca antes había llegado el Estado.

Cepeda, un filósofo y político de 63 años, encarna la continuidad del proceso de cambio que se inició en 2022. Aunque trató de despegarse de las medidas más polémicas o cuestionadas de Petro, como su fallido de plan de paz o el proyecto de una asamblea constituyente, fuertemente resistida por la mayoría de la población.

El presidente de Colombia, Gustavo Petro, termina su mandato en agosto. Foto: AFP

Del otro lado aparece un fuerte “antipetrismo”, según coinciden varios analistas consultados por Clarín. Un panorama económico de inflación, magro crecimiento, desinversión, una crisis del sistema de salud, un aumento de la inseguridad y el fortalecimiento de los grupos armados tras el fracaso de la política de “paz total” de Petro, que prometía desmovilizar a las guerrillas y logró todo lo contrario, alimenta ese rechazo.

Una gran porción de los colombianos no tiene tampoco confianza en De la Espriella –que con su estilo agresivo, desfachatado, ha mostrado actitudes o posturas muy criticables- pero le dará su voto por ser “lo menos malo”, como señalan aquí los expertos y ciudadanos de a pie.

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“Hay muchas propuestas de De la Espriella que son difíciles de tragar para los votantes de centro”, señala Guzmán. Su idea de alinearse ciegamente con Estados Unidos, abandonar todos los esfuerzos de los acuerdo con los grupos armados, recortar drásticamente el gasto del Estado –con el modelo de la motosierra de Javier Milei- o construir megacárceles para narcotraficantes al estilo de Nayib Bukele en El Salvador no caen bien a una porción considerable de votantes.

Pero “El Tigre” encarna la “antipolítica”, el profesional y empresario exitoso que no pertenece “a la casta” y que viene a traer nuevos aires al país.Y aunque se le ha cuestionado su pasado como abogado defensor de acusados por narcotráfico, por ejemplo, logró un caudal considerable de apoyos.

El propio Cepeda ha denunciado penalmente a De la Espriella semanas atrás por supuestos vínculos con paramilitares. Y lo ha calificado de “fascista mafioso” y “traidor de la patria”.

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El populista libertario no se quedó atrás y acusó a Cepeda de «bandido, colaborador de delincuentes», «narcoterrorista» o «heredero de las FARC».

En este ambiente los colombianos eligen el camino para los próximos cuatro años.

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Indonesian passenger ship carrying 240 people loses contact in Java Sea, search underway

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A passenger ship carrying 240 people vanished from contact in the Java Sea on Sunday local time, triggering an urgent search as Indonesian crews raced to locate the vessel.

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The Virgo Transport 8 was traveling from Surabaya, East Java, to Banjarmasin on the island of Borneo when communications with the ship were lost, the Associated Press reported, citing Indonesia’s Banjarmasin Search and Rescue Office.

Authorities said the vessel was last tracked roughly 92 miles from a pier in Banjarmasin, the capital of South Kalimantan province.

MOM LOSES GRIP ON DAUGHTER AS PASSENGER FERRY CAPSIZES WITH 20 PEOPLE STILL MISSING

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Authorities are searching for the Virgo Transport 8 after the passenger ship lost contact while traveling from East Java to South Kalimantan. (EyesWideOpen/Getty Images)

Search-and-rescue teams launched an operation after receiving a report that the ship had suffered a communications failure during the voyage, according to the AP.

Officials had not reported any deaths or injuries as of Sunday, and it was not immediately clear what caused the vessel to lose contact or whether weather conditions were affecting the search.

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MULTIPLE RESCUED FROM PONTOON BOAT NEAR ALCATRAZ AS SEARCH CONTINUES FOR MISSING PERSONS

Virgo Transport 8 passenger ship loses contact while crossing Indonesia’s Java Sea

The Virgo Transport 8 lost contact while traveling from Surabaya to Banjarmasin, according to officials. (EyesWideOpen/Getty Images)

The Virgo Transport 8 departed Surabaya, Indonesia’s second-largest city, before losing contact while crossing the Java Sea toward South Kalimantan.

The search remains underway.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.



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‘Trump-level’ smackdown earns Vance roaring praise as 2028 buzz builds at GOP convention

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Republicans reached a consensus that Vice President JD Vance solidified his position as the presumptive 2028 presidential candidate with his «Trump-level» smackdown of a foreign flag-waving protester who disrupted his speech at the Republican National Convention.

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Vance did not hesitate after a protester interrupted his primetime speech in Dallas on Thursday by waving the flags of the Palestinian Authority and Mexico. He recalled to those watching his speech on TV: «What the people at home missed is that we just had a protester interrupting us and waving the Mexican flag.»

«Well, my friend, if you love Mexico so much, get your a– over there. I’ll buy you the plane ticket,» the VP said, to which the crowd erupted into applause.

«JD Vance just MIC DROPPED a leftist heckler who interrupted him waving a Mexican flag…this place is DEAFENING,» conservative commentator Eric Daugherty wrote on X, adding, «TOTAL PANDEMONIUM.»

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CROWD ERUPTS AS VANCE SMACKS DOWN PROTESTER WAVING MEXICAN FLAG: ‘GET YOUR A– OVER THERE’

A protestor throws a Mexican flag as Vice President JD Vance speaks during the second day of the Republican National Committee midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas on September 10, 2026. (Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)

Popular conservative pundit Benny Johnson called Vance’s quick wit an «epic response.» President Donald Trump supporter and activist Scott Pressler similarly praised Vance for reacting «without missing a beat,» and called it «an iconic moment.»

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«This was masterful. A Trump-level move from JD Vance,» wrote Overton, a conservative commentary and news account. «Vice President Vance perfectly handled a protestor waving a Mexican flag at the RNC in Dallas. Then he fired back with a savage one-liner that sent the American Airlines Center into absolute bedlam.»

The moment was capped off with a «USA!» chant from those in the crowd at the GOP Midterm Convention.

Students for Trump co-founder Ryan Fournier wrote, «JD Vance just absolute [sic] WIPED THE FLOOR with a leftist heckler who interrupted his rally waving a Mexican flag.»

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«The crowd went completely WILD. Unbelievable energy,» wrote Fournier.

VANCE DECLARES DEMOCRATS ‘PARTY OF HATRED,’ SAYS PARTY HAS MOVED BEYOND BIG GOVERNMENT, CENSORSHIP

JD Vance

Vice President JD Vance introduces U.S. President Donald Trump to speak on stage on the second day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 10, 2026, in Dallas, Texas. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

«JD Vance just notched the most iconic moment of the RNC when he told a protester waving a Mexican flag exactly what all red blooded Americans were thinking,» wrote Turning Point USA spokesman Andrew Kolvet.

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Commentator Brilyn Hollyhand put it simply, posting on X, «Yea JD for President after this.»

Vance recovered from the interruption quickly, telling the crowd, «Ladies and gentlemen, I had a whole speech written. But I think I’ve got to change it because we just discovered the symbol of the far left — an idiot waving … a Mexican flag at a protest when he should be waving the flag of the United States of America.»

«Now, we all know, of course, that as much as that person might wave around a foreign flag, he’d much rather live in Dallas, or in Cincinnati, or in any one of our great cities than Mexico,» President Donald Trump’s No. 2 continued. «But while we wave the American flag and fight for the American dream, we have to remind ourselves tonight that the good life that is the foundation of this country’s promise is not guaranteed.»

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CHARLIE KIRK HONORED AT GOP CONVENTION WITH CALL TO REJECT ‘COMFORTABLE LOSING’

Republican National Convention attendees

People hold signs on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 9, 2026, in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

«Every generation of Americans has had to fight for these things when it’s our turn,» he went on.

«And this fall, the Democrats are running candidates who will tell your children what they’re allowed to say, how they’re allowed to live, and importantly, who they ought to hate, because that’s what the Democrat Party is about in 2026,» Vance continued. «It’s not about you, it’s about foreign fraudsters, and it’s about who they hate. And we got to send their a–es back in November.»

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Speculation has swirled over who will be the heir to Trump’s MAGA throne in 2028. The consensus so far among Republicans appears to be split between Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — but a lot could change before the next presidential election.

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Top House chairman warns Congress against ‘complacency’ 25 years after 9/11

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House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., remembers exactly where he was when the World Trade Center was attacked on Sept. 11, 2001.

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«I was a senior in high school. I was in Mr. Ponzi’s government class. And that’s when the first plane hit. And one of the other teachers came in and was telling Mr. Ponzi about it,» he told Fox News Digital. «We all thought it was a little plane. And then we went to the next class. And then the second plane hit, and everybody realized that stuff was wrong.»

Twenty-five years later, Garbarino leads a congressional committee that oversees a Cabinet department created explicitly after the terror attack. He’s warning that Congress needs to change how it deals with potential threats to avoid another tragedy of that scale.

«Being chairman of the committee, being a New Yorker, it’s one of those things you focus on, and you want to make sure another 9/11 doesn’t happen, and doesn’t ever happen again. And that’s my goal. That’s my priority,» he said.

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House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., is sounding the alarm against congressional «complacency,» 25 years after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. (Newspix via Getty Images)

9/11 IS BECOMING HISTORY. MY GENERATION MUST MAKE SURE AMERICA NEVER FORGETS

«Congress is very good at being reactive… We don’t want another 9/11. So if I could leave my fingerprints on something here, it’s the fact that the focus, Congress’ focus on national security, Congress’ focus on homeland security or safety, is that we address an issue before something happens.»

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HOW 9/11 TRANSFORMED SYNAGOGUE SECURITY INTO A NEW REALITY FOR THE JEWISH COMMUNITY

He said Congress needed to get into the habit of passing laws ahead of time, «instead of being like, ‘Oh my God I can’t believe this happened, how did this happen, let’s fix it now.’»

«That’s why 9/11 happened. 9/11 happened because our intelligence agencies, they were siloed, they were not sharing information. I don’t know if it was a complacency or whatever, but there were a lot of problems,» Garbarino said. «I don’t want to fall into that same complacency.»

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Garbarino represents New York’s 2nd Congressional District, part of Long Island’s south shore. As a suburb of New York City, its residents are deeply attuned to that tragedy 25 years ago.

A lawmaker sits during a formal congressional hearing inside a government building.

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rep. Andrew Garbarino presides over a hearing in the Cannon House Office Building in Washington on Dec. 11, 2025. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

«We have people that lost loved ones that day that are still dealing with it 25 years later,» Garbarino said. «So the scar is still there.»

His district and others are also still dealing with illnesses stemming from that day, including first responders who bravely rushed to the collapsing twin towers.

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«There are now more people that have died from 9/11-related illnesses than died on the actual day. So it’s a day that keeps taking people away from us,» Garbarino said.

«You have firemen who, 9/11 was their first call. They were 21, 22 years old. They’re now 47… And a lot of these, some of these cancers, they take a while to take hold, and they’re now just getting sick.»

SCIENTISTS DISCOVER POSSIBLE LINK BETWEEN 9/11 AND ACCELERATED AGING

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People rush away from the collapsing World Trade Center in New York City.

People rush away from the collapsing World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, after two hijacked airplanes hit the twin towers in New York City in a terrorist attack. (Getty Images)

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump signed legislation led by Garbarino and others to address a projected funding shortfall for the World Trade Center Health Program, which helps survivors pay for their medical treatment.

He said nearly all congressional districts across the country have at least one person participating in the program, a testament to how widespread the tragedy’s effects are.

«People moved out of New York, people who came from all over the country after 9/11 to help, they all went back home, they also got sick. So this does affect the entire country,» Garbarino said.

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