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Donald Trump y la guerra comercial con China: además del impacto global, también golpeará a los consumidores estadounidenses

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La guerra comercial desatada entre Estados Unidos y China fue lanzada por el presidente Donald Trump por diversos motivos pero, más allá de la tensión bilateral, tendrá un impacto en el comercio global y en los consumidores estadounidenses que resultarán perjudicados, coinciden expertos consultados por Clarín.

El jefe de la Casa Blanca subió un 10% los aranceles a todos los productos chinos, una medida que entró en vigencia el martes a la madrugada, con el argumento de que Beijing no frena el tráfico de fentanilo, una droga sintética que mata a miles de personas en Estados Unidos. China respondió rápidamente con una suba de tarifas a productos estadounidenses que incluyen 15% sobre el carbón y el gas natural licuado (GNL) y otras represalias como una investigación antimonopolio sobre Google.

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David Bachman, profesor de Relaciones Internacionales, experto en China de la University of Washington, dijo que “el gobierno chino está demostrando que no se dejará intimidar ni acorralar fácilmente. Intentará demostrar que una guerra comercial con China será costosa y no cederá a sus demandas. Al mismo tiempo, la respuesta china es relativamente moderada, lo que sugiere que está dispuesta a participar en negociaciones realistas”.

Los impactos

“La guerra comercial tendrá múltiples impactos a nivel mundial. Esto alentará a los países a tratar de evitar el mercado estadounidense lo mejor que puedan y a buscar sus propios acuerdos comerciales con otros países para eludir a Estados Unidos. La incertidumbre causada por las guerras arancelarias y comerciales dañará la confianza y la estabilidad de las empresas y, por lo tanto, será un freno para el crecimiento económico global”, añadió.

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Respecto a los motivos por los que Trump tomó esta medida, Arthur Dong, profesor de Negocios, experto en Asia de Georgetown University, dijo que responde a tres razones: “El primero es satisfacer a una audiencia de política interna. China es ampliamente rechazada entre el pueblo estadounidense. Tanto los demócratas como los republicanos ven a China como un rival económico, estratégico y de seguridad. Por lo tanto, hacer declaraciones fuertes sobre China le proporciona a Trump una moneda política, ya que tener una postura firme contra China es popular”, señaló.

“En segundo lugar, la postura política que toma prestada de una página del manual maquiavélico: es mejor ser temido que amado. Trump ahora parece un héroe para el pueblo estadounidense debido a su capacidad para enfrentarse a los gobiernos extranjeros”, añadió el experto.

El presidente de China, Xi Jinping, en Macao. Foto AP

Y en tercer lugar, añadió, “hay una serie de cuestiones que preocupan a Trump en lo que respecta a las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y China como el desequilibrio económico, ya que Estados Unidos compra muchos más bienes de China que los que China compra a Estados Unidos, y el conflicto con Ucrania porque Trump puede vincular la política comercial a que China cambie su postura hacia Rusia y retire su apoyo a Rusia”.

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Además, agrega Dong, “Trump entiende que China está en un momento de debilidad. La economía china está cayendo en picada y la única forma en que pueden revitalizarse es exportando para salir de su declive actual. Trump sabe que China necesita acceso al mercado estadounidense y esa es la única forma en que pueden mantener a sus millones de personas empleadas”.

Trump también instaló tarifas de 25% a México y Canadá, aunque luego las pospuso por un mes, cuando el gobierno mexicano y el canadiense anunciaron medias para frenar la migración y el narcotráfico. El presidente republicano parece estar dispuesto a aplicar tarifas como arma de presión para conseguir lo que busca. ¿Pero cómo impacta esta guerra de tarifas en el bolsillo de los estadounidenses?

Bachman asegura que “las guerras comerciales perjudicarán a los consumidores en Estados Unidos. Una guerra comercial con Canadá tendría efectos negativos muy graves en General Motors y Ford Motor Company, por ejemplo, dada la interconexión de la cadena de suministro automotriz entre Estados Unidos y Canadá. Particularmente en invierno, pero durante gran parte del año, muchas frutas y verduras frescas en Estados Unidos provienen de México”.

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Además, “los aranceles del 10%, además de muchas otras tarifas existentes sobre los productos chinos, aumentarán los costos para los consumidores, y el fin de la exclusión arancelaria de $800 creará enormes problemas en la administración aduanera, lo que ralentizará enormemente las ventas por correo de Shein y Temu (y en menor medida, Amazon)”, asegura el experto.

Para Dong, “si la guerra comercial no se detiene, EE. UU. se hundirá en una recesión. Esto perjudica mucho a los estadounidenses, se verán afectados en el bolsillo con el aumento de los precios de los alimentos y pagarán más por los automóviles y camiones, y también las autopartes. Se enfrentarán costos de seguro más altos y la industria de seguros tendrá que recalcular las primas para cubrir el aumento del costo de las piezas de automóvil y las piezas necesarias para las reparaciones”.

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North Korea fires missiles as US, South Korea begin their 1st joint military exercise of Trump’s 2nd term

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North Korea fired several ballistic missiles into the sea on Monday, just hours after South Korea and the United States kicked off their first major joint military exercise of President Donald Trump’s second term. 

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile firings were detected from the North’s southwestern Hwanghae Province. The weapons were described as close-range, and in response, South Korea’s military said it has bolstered its surveillance posture and is closely coordinating with the U.S. 

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«We are aware of the DPRK’s multiple ballistic missile launches and are consulting closely with the Republic of Korea and Japan, as well as other regional allies and partners. The United States condemns these actions and calls on the DPRK to refrain from further unlawful and destabilizing acts,» the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement. «While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, or territory, or to our allies, we continue to monitor the situation. The U.S. commitments to the defense of the ROK and Japan remain ironclad.»

The launches come after South Korean and U.S. forces began their annual Freedom Shield exercise Monday.  

NORTH KOREA UNVEILS ITS FIRST NUCLEAR-POWERED SUBMARINE 

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A missile flies during what North Korean state media said was a test of a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile at an undisclosed location on Jan. 6. (Reuters/KCNA)

«Freedom Shield is an 11-day exercise conducted by the Republic of Korea and the United States consisting of training to reflect the Korea Theater of Operations – a combined, joint, multi-domain, and interagency operating environment,» according to the U.S. Army.  

«Field training events throughout FS25 include urban combat operations, field hospital operations, mass casualty treatment and evacuation, field artillery exercises, air assault training, wet gap crossing, air defense artillery asset deployment and validation, and a joint assault exercise with the U.S. Marine Corps,» the Army added. 

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However, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry is calling the exercises an «aggressive and confrontational war rehearsal.» 

«Despite of the DPRK’s repeated warning, the US and the Republic of Korea are dead set on staging the large-scale joint military exercises. This is a dangerous provocative act of driving the acute situation on the Korean peninsula, where a single accidental gun report may spark off a physical conflict between the two sides, beyond the extreme limit,» read a statement published in North Korean state media. 

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US military in South Korea

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to cross the Hantan River at a training field in Yeoncheon, South Korea, near the border with North Korea on Monday, March 10. (AP/Ahn Young-joon)

This year’s training comes after South Korean KF-16 fighter jets accidentally dropped bombs on a civilian area during a live-fire training exercise with the U.S. on Thursday, injuring multiple people and damaging multiple buildings, including three houses and a Catholic church. 

South Korean media reported that the accident happened in Pocheon, a city near the heavily armed border with North Korea. About 30 people were wounded, two of them seriously. 

The initial assessment from the South Korean air force was that one of the KF-16 pilots entered the wrong coordinates and failed to visually verify the target before proceeding with the bombing. The second pilot had the correct coordinates but focused only on maintaining flight formation and dropped the bombs on the first pilot’s instructions without recognizing the target was wrong, according to the content of the latest briefing provided to The Associated Press. 

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North Korean missile test on TV

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of a North Korean missile test at a train station in Seoul on March 10, 2025. North Korea fired «multiple unidentified ballistic missiles» on March 10, South Korea’s military said, the same day Seoul and Washington began a major annual joint military drill known as Freedom Shield.  (Jung Yeon-Je/AFP via Getty Images)

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Gen. Lee Youngsu, chief of staff of the South Korean air force, bowed and apologized Monday over the injuries and property damage caused by the bombing, which he said «should have never happened and must never happen again.» 

Fox News’ Bradford Betz and The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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US-flagged tanker collides with container ship near UK

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A cargo ship hit a tanker carrying jet fuel off the coast of eastern England Monday, setting both vessels on fire and triggering a major rescue operation, emergency services said.

At least 32 people were brought ashore, but their condition was not immediately clear. The operator of the tanker said all of its crew members were safe.

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The U.S.-flagged chemical and oil products tanker MV Stena Immaculate was at anchor near the port of Grimsby Monday morning after sailing from Greece, according to ship-tracking site VesselFinder. The cargo vessel, Portugal-flagged container ship Solong, was sailing from Grangemouth in Scotland to Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

U.S.-based Crowley Ship Management, which operates the Stena Immaculate, said the tanker «sustained a ruptured cargo tank containing Jet-A1 fuel,» when the container ship struck it, triggering a fire and «multiple explosions onboard,» with fuel released into the sea.

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Screen recording of a map showing tankers and vessels. (Reuters)

It said all the mariners on the tanker were safe and accounted for.

Martyn Boyers, chief executive of the Port of Grimsby East, said 13 casualties were brought in on a Windcat 33 high-speed vessel, followed by another 19 on a harbor pilot boat.

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Britain’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency said several lifeboats and a coast guard rescue helicopter were dispatched to the scene in the North Sea, along with a coast guard plane.

The site of the collision is off the coast of Hull, about 155 miles north of London.

Coast guards said the alarm was raised at 9:48 a.m. (0948 GMT). Humber Coast Guard made a radio broadcast asking vessels with firefighting equipment and those who could help with search and rescue to head to the scene.

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HUGE UNEXPLODED WORLD WAR II-ERA BOMB FOUND IN CROWDED PARIS RESIDENTIAL AREA

Screenshot of a map.

Screenshot of a map showing the moment the container ship collided with the chemical tanker. (Reuters)

The RNLI lifeboat agency said «there were reports that a number of people had abandoned the vessels following a collision and there were fires on both ships.» It said three lifeboats were working on search and rescue at the scene alongside the coast guard.

Video footage aired by the BBC and apparently filmed from a nearby vessel showed thick black smoke pouring from both ships.

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Boyers, the port chief, said he had been told there was «a massive fireball.»

«It’s too far out for us to see – about 10 miles – but we have seen the vessels bringing them in,» he said. «They must have sent a mayday out. Luckily there was a crew transfer vessel out there already. Since then, there has been a flotilla of ambulances to pick up anyone they can find.»

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Ambulances leaving the port.

Ambulances leaving the port after a ship collided with a tanker. (Reuters)

U.K. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was being kept up to date on the developing situation.

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«I want to thank all emergency service workers involved for their continued efforts in responding to the incident,» she said.

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Ex-Philippine President Duterte shrugs off possible arrest by ICC for drug war during trip to Hong Kong

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Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made an unannounced visit to Hong Kong on Sunday, leading to questions about whether he is attempting to evade a possible arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court over his extrajudicial killings amid his war on drugs during his time in office.

Duterte, 79, and his daughter — incumbent Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte — were the main speakers at a campaign rally at the Southorn Stadium in the busy Wan Chai commercial district in Hong Kong for the senatorial candidates of his political party, Partido Demokratiko Pilipino, ahead of the May 12 midterm elections in the Philippines.

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In his speech, Duterte addressed reports about the ICC possibly issuing a warrant for his arrest, reiterating previous comments that he was prepared to be jailed if his arrest is ordered.

«If that’s my fate, that’s fine. I will accept it. We can’t do anything if I’m arrested or imprisoned,» he said in front of a crowd of Filipino supporters.

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Rodrigo Duterte

Former President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte speaks inside the Southorn Stadium during a gathering organized by Hong Kong-based Filipino workers for the former populist president in Hong Kong on Sunday, March 9, 2025. (AP)

The ICC has been investigating the large number of killings by police and gunmen under Duterte’s crackdown against illegal drugs during his tenure as president from 2016-2022. Thousands of people, most of whom were poor, were left dead as he sought to carry out his war on drugs.

Duterte, while in office, also prosecuted a journalist for coverage that scrutinized the government’s killings.

The former populist president has denied he authorized extrajudicial killings. However, he openly and repeatedly threatened to kill suspected drug dealers during his time in office.

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«What was my sin?» Duterte asked in his speech in Hong Kong. «I did everything in my time, so Filipinos can have a little peace and tranquility.»

He jokingly told the crowd to make small contributions for the construction of his monument, which he said should show him holding a gun.

CHINESE NAVY HELICOPTER FLIES WITHIN 10 FEET OF PHILIPPINE PATROL PLANE OVER DISPUTED SHOAL

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Former President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte

Former President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte speaks inside the Southorn Stadium during a gathering organized by Hong Kong-based Filipino workers for the former populist president in Hong Kong on Sunday, March 9, 2025. (AP)

A senior Philippine official said the former president was scheduled to fly back on Tuesday to Manila, the capital of the Philippines, but another senior official said he could extend his stay in Hong Kong.

Current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration is prepared to handle any situation stemming from an ICC arrest warrant, the president’s communications secretary, Jay Ruiz, said.

«We’ve heard that an arrest warrant has been issued by the International Criminal Court against former President Rodrigo Duterte for crimes against humanity,» Ruiz said in a statement. «The government is prepared for any eventuality.»

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In the southern city of Davao, Duterte’s home region, police bolstered security at the international airport and will monitor new checkpoints. Philippine police told reporters the move was part of an effort to ensure law enforcement would be able to handle any contingencies.

Duterte had held office in Davao, previously serving as mayor, vice mayor and member of the House of Representatives. He was also chair of the Davao City Liberal Party from 2009-2015.

Duterte

Former President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte speaks inside the Southorn Stadium during a gathering organized by Hong Kong-based Filipino workers for the former populist president in Hong Kong on Sunday, March 9, 2025. (AP)

Marcos Jr. has said that Philippine law enforcement agencies would be required to fully cooperate if the ICC seeks Duterte’s arrest.

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The ICC was created in 2002 to serve as a court of last resort for the most serious international crimes, including genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and aggression. The ICC becomes involved when countries are unable or unwilling to prosecute crimes within their borders.

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About 125 countries have signed the court’s foundational treaty, the Rome Statute. But China, which controls Hong Kong, has not signed on.

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Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC in 2019, which activists argued was an attempt to evade accountability and prevent an international investigation into the government-authorized killings. However, the ICC still maintains jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed when the country was a member, so Duterte could still be held accountable for possible crimes committed in the first half of his presidency.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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