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Guerra comercial: Los bancos alertan que Estados Unidos se encamina a una recesión por los aranceles

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El JPMorgan Chase & Co., el mayor banco de Estados Unidos y de Occidente, a tono con otras entidades de la potencia norteamericana, alertó en un duro informe sobre un pronóstico ominoso para el crecimiento del país y la estabilidad laboral de resultas de la ofensiva proteccionista y arancelaria del gobierno de Donald Trump.

Sus previsiones apuntan a una contracción de la actividad a un ritmo trimestral anualizado del 1% en el tercer o y del 0,5% en el cuarto, una recesión de dos trimestres.

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Las preocupaciones por la enorme crisis que ha estallado también parecerían llegar a la Casa Blanca, aunque sin señales de cambio de rumbo. Al cabo de una semana con desplomes históricos de las Bolsas y una extraordinaria destrucción de riqueza, el mandatario salió este sábado a reconocer que el camino “no será fácil” y llamó a resistir, pero insistió en que sus medidas, resistidas por los mercados y las corporaciones, serán exitosas.

El jueves y viernes, en solo dos ruedas, se fulminaron casi 6 billones de dólares (millones de millones) de riqueza de las principales empresas que cotizan en Wall Street.

Donald Trump dice que la guerra comercial no será fácil, pero que hay que «resistir». Foto: REUTERS

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Frente a ese situación, el JP Morgan hizo su análisis de un ingreso del país en recesión este año por el impacto de los aranceles que provocarán una sensible caída del crecimiento.

“Esperamos que el PIB real se contraiga por el impacto de estas medidas y para todo el año vemos un crecimiento del PIB real del -0,3%, inferior al 1,3% previsto”, declaró Michael Feroli, economista jefe del banco para Estados Unidos, en una nota dirigida a los clientes.

“Se espera que la contracción prevista de la actividad económica reduzca la contratación y, con el tiempo, eleve la tasa de desempleo al 5,3%”, añadió. Trump recibió una economía en crecimiento, con una inflación por debajo de 3% anual y una desocupación en niveles históricos bajos.

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«El resultado será histórico», promete Trump

El presidente insistió este sábado que sus medidas, que según los analistas son un clásico paquete proteccionista, configuran “una revolución económica y vamos a ganar. Resistan, no será fácil, pero el resultado será histórico. Haremos que EE.UU. sea grande de nuevo”.

El líder republicano aseguró que su plan permitirá que la potencia “recupere empleos y negocios como nunca antes”. Esa visión es cuestionada por los economistas que temen un alza de precios y, debido a las réplicas, una guerra comercial que ralentice el crecimiento mundial.

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La Bolsa de Nueva York y los mercados de Asia y Europa se desplomaron tras el anuncio de los aranceles de Donald Trump. Foto. BLOOMBERG   La Bolsa de Nueva York y los mercados de Asia y Europa se desplomaron tras el anuncio de los aranceles de Donald Trump. Foto. BLOOMBERG

Trump afirmó que China, que respondió con aranceles del 34% para EE.UU, “ha sido golpeada mucho más fuerte”. El viernes había afirmado que Beijing “ha entrado en pánico. El mandatario hizo estos comentarios desde Florida, donde se quedó a jugar golf por tercer día desde que declaró el miércoles una guerra comercial al resto del mundo, provocando un derrumbe bursátil desde Asia a Norteamérica no visto desde el estallido de la pandemia en 2020.

Esta semana el índice S&P500, el panel preferido de acciones estadounidenses. alcanzó su nivel más bajo en 11 meses . El pronóstico de JPMorgan coincidió con expectativas similares por parte de otros bancos, que han estado recortando drásticamente sus proyecciones de crecimiento para EE. UU. este año desde el anuncio de los aranceles. El jueves, Barclays Plc anunció que prevé una contracción del PIB en 2025, “en consonancia con una recesión”.

El viernes, los economistas del Citi redujeron su pronóstico de crecimiento para 2025 a 0,1 %, y los de UBS lo redujeron al 0,4 %.

“Prevemos que las importaciones estadounidenses del resto del mundo caerán más de 20% durante nuestro horizonte de pronóstico, principalmente en los próximos trimestres, lo que devolverá el porcentaje de importaciones del PIB a los niveles anteriores a 1986”, declaró Jonathan Pingle, economista jefe de UBS.

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“La contundencia de la medida de política comercial implica un ajuste macroeconómico sustancial para una economía de 30 billones de dólares”, agregó.

Feroli afirmó que espera que la Reserva Federal comience a recortar su tasa de interés de referencia en junio y proceda con recortes de tasas en cada reunión posterior hasta enero, situándola en un rango de 2,75% a 3% desde el actual del 4,25% al 4,5% como herramienta para sostener la actividad y luchar contra la recesión. Estos recortes se producirían a pesar de un aumento en un indicador clave de la inflación subyacente al 4,4% para finales de año, desde el nivel actual del 2,8% que preocupa a la FED.

“El impacto del aumento de precios que prevemos para los próximos meses podría ser más fuerte que el del pico inflacionario pospandémico, ya que el crecimiento de los ingresos nominales se ha moderado recientemente, en lugar de acelerarse en el episodio anterior”, escribió Feroli en ese entido. “Además, en un entorno de mayor incertidumbre, los consumidores podrían mostrarse reacios a recurrir demasiado a sus ahorros para financiar el crecimiento del gasto”.

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“De concretarse, nuestro pronóstico estanflacionario plantearía un dilema a los responsables de la política monetaria de la Fed”, escribió Feroli. “Creemos que la debilidad sustancial del mercado laboral prevalecerá al final, sobre todo si resulta en un menor crecimiento salarial, lo que dará al comité mayor confianza en que no se está consolidando una espiral de precios-salarios”.

Estados Unidos,Donald Trump,Economía

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Final faceoff: Democrat, Republican nominees in key race for governor blast each other on debate stage

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NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. — With under one month to go until Election Day in New Jersey’s competitive and combustible race for governor, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli battled over Sherrill’s military record, Ciattarelli’s business career, and support for President Donald Trump during their second and final debate.

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The showdown in New Jersey in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, which turned increasingly bitter in recent weeks, played out at Wednesday’s acrimonious debate.

In one heated exchange, Sherrill accused Ciattarelli of profiting off the opioid crisis, claiming that he «killed tens of thousands of people» through his ties to pharmaceutical industry-backed training materials.

And Ciattarelli fired back that Sherrill «broke the law,» as he pointed to a fine she paid four years ago for failing to timely disclose stock trades, as members of Congress are required to do under federal conflict-of-interest law.

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TRUMP LOOMS LARGE OVER 2025 ELECTIONS

New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill, right, and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli on the stage at the start of their second and final debate on Oct. 8, 2025 in New Brunswick, N.J. (Fox News Digital/Paul Steinhauser  )

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states to hold gubernatorial contests the year after a presidential election, which means the races traditionally grab outsized national attention.

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And this year’s ballot box showdowns are viewed as crucial early tests of Trump’s popularity and second-term agenda, and are considered key barometers ahead of next year’s midterm elections for the U.S. House and Senate.

The two candidates took shots at each other over key issues, including New Jersey’s sky-high energy costs, property taxes, immigration, and the ongoing federal government shutdown.

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And while he isn’t on the ballot, Trump loomed large over the debate.

Ciattarelli, who cruised to the GOP nomination earlier this year after landing Trump’s endorsement, was asked where he disagrees with the president.

«I disagree with the president on the Empire Wind Farm for Long Island,» the Republican nominee answered.

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Moments later, Sherrill charged that her GOP rival had «shown zero signs of standing up to this president. In fact, the president himself called Jack 100% MAGA, and he’s shown every sign of being that.»

New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherril

New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill, on the stage moments at the start of their second and final debate, on Oct. 8, 2025, in New Brunswick, N.J. (Fox News Digital/Paul Steinhauser  )

Ciattarelli shot back that «in times of need, it’s best to have a relationship with whoever occupies the White House, and I will.»

Asked to grade the president’s performance so far during his second term, Ciattarelli said, «I’d certainly give the president an A. I think he’s right about everything that he’s doing.»

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«I think that tells us all we need to know about who Jack Ciattarelli’s supporting. I give him an F right now,» Sherrill responded, as she pointed to New Jersey’s high cost of living.

Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker and a certified public accountant who started a medical publishing company before getting into politics and winning election as a state lawmaker, is making his third straight run for New Jersey governor. And four years ago, he grabbed national attention as he came close to upsetting Murphy.

BLUE STATE REPUBLICAN RIPS DEMOCRATIC RIVAL FOR BLAMING ‘EVERYTHING ON TRUMP’

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It was during the 2021 campaign that Ciattarelli’s connection to opioid manufacturers first surfaced. Ciattarelli sold his company, which published content promoting the use of opioids as a low-risk treatment for chronic pain, in 2017.

«You’re trying to divert from the fact you killed tens of thousands of people by printing your misinformation, your propaganda,» Sherrill charged. «I think our kids deserve better. I think the people you got addicted and died deserve better than you.»

Ciattarelli responded, saying, «With regard to everything she just said about my professional career, which provided for my family, it’s a lie. I’m proud of my career.»

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«Shame on you,» Ciattarelli added.

Sherrill shot back, «Shame on you, sir.»

Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli

Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli on the stage at the start of their second and final debate on Oct. 8, 2025 in New Brunswick, N.J. (Fox News Digital/Paul Steinhauser  )

Cittarrelli then blamed the fentanyl crisis on former President Joe Biden’s «open border» policies.

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And at a post-debate news conference, he claimed the attack by Sherrill was «a desperate tactic by a desperate campaign on behalf of a desperate candidate.»

Sherrill, asked after the debate if she had proof directly linking Ciattarelli to the opioid deaths, told reporters, «I guess he’s not really expressed anything about this. I think there’s a lot we don’t know. I think he continues to not be very transparent about it.»

Ciattarelli, during the debate, fired back at Sherrill, saying, «I got to walk at my college graduation,» as he referred to the controversy surrounding Sherrill’s military records.

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The race was rocked two weeks ago after a New Jersey Globe report revealed that Sherrill’s military records indicated that the United States Naval Academy blocked her from taking part in her 1994 graduation amid the cheating scandal.

Sherrill has claimed that Ciattarelli was going on a «witch hunt» over her improperly released military records, which raised questions about her possible involvement in a cheating scandal that rocked the U.S. Naval Academy three decades ago.

Ciattarelli and his campaign have repeatedly called on Sherrill, who went on to pilot helicopters during her military career after graduating from the Naval Academy, to release her military records to explain why she was prevented from attending her graduation ceremony.

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But a separate report from CBS News revealed that the National Personnel Records Center, which is a branch of the National Archives and Records Administration, mistakenly released Sherrill’s improperly redacted military personnel files, which included private information like her Social Security number, to a Ciattarelli ally. 

The National Archives, in a letter two weeks ago, apologized to Sherrill, saying the improper release was due to a government worker’s error over a legal records request.

Following the breach of the records, Sherrill’s campaign sent cease-and-desist letters to the National Archives and to Ciattarelli’s campaign, as well as to Russell and Nicholas De Gregorio, who is described by Sherrill’s team as «an agent of the campaign working at the direction of» Russell.

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The Sherrill campaign also launched a digital ad taking aim at Ciattarelli.

«They broke the law to attack a veteran,» the narrator in the spot charged.

Sherrill, asked why she didn’t attend her graduation, said at the debate, «I didn’t turn in some of my classmates, so I didn’t walk at graduation because I come from an incredibly accountable place. But I went on to graduate. I was commissioned an officer in the United States Navy.»

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And she reiterated that she does not want to give Ciattarelli and his campaign access to the records of her Naval Academy classmates.

And she asked, «Why my opponent still won’t take accountability for the release of those records. It’s under federal investigation that a member of his team, someone he vetted to be his lieutenant governor, actually got access to those records, said he was shocked and disgusted, and yet nevertheless shopped them out to reporters when he was asked about it, he acted as if he had no idea what his campaign was doing.»

«So either he’s really incompetent or he’s lying,» she argued.

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Ciattarelli quickly responded, calling on Sherrill to release her records.

«We know for a fact that she wasn’t allowed to participate in the graduation ceremony. We know for a fact that her name was not listed in the commencement exercise program. She says it’s because she didn’t turn in classmates. That’s the honor code at West Point. That’s not the honor code at the Naval Academy. You don’t get punished for that. I think she was punished for something else,» he argued.

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While Democrats have long dominated federal and state legislative elections in blue-leaning New Jersey, Republicans are very competitive in gubernatorial contests, winning five out of the past ten elections.

And in the 2025 race, political history favors both parties. 

The party that wins the White House tends to lose the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections the following year, which favors the Democrats. But Democrats in New Jersey are also trying to buck history — it’s been over six decades since a party won three straight Garden State gubernatorial elections.

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donald trump,jack ciattarelli,mikie sherrill,phil murphy,2025 2026 elections coverage,gubernatorial,new jersey,elections

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Trump afirmó que los rehenes “serán liberados probablemente el lunes” y calificó el acuerdo entre Israel y Hamas como “paz en Medio Oriente”

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Trump afirmó que los rehenes “serán liberados probablemente el lunes” y calificó el acuerdo entre Israel y Hamas como “paz en Oriente Medio” (REUTERS)

El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, calificó el nuevo acuerdo entre Israel y Hamas como “paz en Medio Oriente”, durante una entrevista telefónica en vivo con el presentador de Fox News, Sean Hannity, el miércoles por la noche.

El mundo entero se unió en torno a este acuerdo”, afirmó.

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Trump señaló que la liberación de los rehenes capturados por el grupo terrorista Hamas se concretará en los próximos días. “Los rehenes serán liberados probablemente el lunes”, declaró. “Mientras hablamos, se realizan muchos esfuerzos para liberar a los rehenes”, mencionó.

Al ser consultado sobre las próximas fases del plan, el mandatario indicó: “Creo que veremos la reconstrucción de Gaza. Estamos formando un consejo, un Consejo de Paz, así creemos que se llamará”. Añadió que el organismo será “muy poderoso”, aunque no especificó cómo funcionará.

Trump relató además una conversación reciente con el primer ministro israelí. “Hablé con Bibi Netanyahu hace un rato y me dijo: ‘No puedo creerlo, ahora le caigo bien a todo el mundo’”, contó. “Le dije: ‘Israel no puede luchar contra el mundo, Bibi’”, agregó.

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El primer ministro israelí, Benjamin
El primer ministro israelí, Benjamin Netanyahu, y el presidente de EEUU, Donald Trump (White House)

El presidente estadounidense afirmó también que “otros países en el Medio Oriente ayudarán a reconstruir Gaza”, aunque no precisó cuáles. “Creemos que Gaza será un lugar mucho más seguro y que se reconstruirá, y otros países de la zona contribuirán a ello, porque poseen una enorme riqueza y desean que eso suceda”, explicó. “Participaremos para ayudarles a lograr el éxito y a mantener la paz”, añadió.

El anuncio se produjo pocas horas después de que Trump confirmara la firma de la primera fase del acuerdo de paz para Gaza, elaborado con el apoyo de Egipto, Qatar, Turquía y Estados Unidos, y respaldado por la Organización de Naciones Unidas (ONU).

La primera fase del plan, que será firmada este jueves en Egipto, contempla que en las próximas 72 horas Hamas libere a unos 20 rehenes con vida y que el ejército israelí se retire del territorio palestino.

Durante la negociación en Egipto, el grupo terrorista presentó una lista de prisioneros palestinos que desea liberar de las cárceles israelíes en la primera fase de la tregua.

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A cambio, Hamas liberará a los 47 rehenes restantes, tanto vivos como muertos, capturados en el ataque del 7 de octubre de 2023 contra Israel, que desencadenó la guerra.

El negociador israelí Nitzan Alon
El negociador israelí Nitzan Alon (extremo izquierdo) estrecha la mano del primer ministro catarí, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, en una foto que indica el éxito de las negociaciones mediadas entre Israel y Hamás sobre un acuerdo de alto el fuego para la toma de rehenes en Gaza en Sharm el-Sheikh, en la madrugada del 9 de octubre de 2025. El segundo desde la derecha, de espaldas a la cámara, es el enviado especial de EE. UU. para Oriente Medio, Steve Witkoff. (Telegram / usado de conformidad con la cláusula 27a de la ley de derechos de autor)

El presidente estadounidense declaró previamente a la prensa que lo más probable es que viaje a Egipto en los próximos días. “No lo hemos decidido con exactitud. Probablemente iré a Egipto. Es allí donde todos están reunidos ahora mismo, y lo agradecemos mucho, pero estaré haciendo la ronda, como suele decirse”, dijo.

La propuesta de Trump fue apoyada públicamente por el primer ministro de Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, quien sin embargo matizó horas después que no respaldará la creación de un Estado palestino y que las tropas israelíes permanecerán desplegadas “en la mayoría” de Gaza, lo que generó dudas sobre la viabilidad de la aplicación del plan estadounidense.

La guerra comenzó el 7 de octubre de 2023, cuando milicianos de Hamas atacaron Israel y mataron a unas 1.200 personas, en su mayoría civiles, y secuestraron a 251. Como respuesta, Israel lanzó una campaña militar que devastó gran parte del enclave.

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El humo se eleva durante
El humo se eleva durante una operación militar israelí en la ciudad de Gaza, vista desde el centro de la Franja de Gaza (REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas)

El Ministerio de Salud de Gaza, gestionado por Hamas y cuyas cifras son consideradas confiables por la ONU, reporta más de 67.000 palestinos fallecidos y cerca de 170.000 heridos, con la mitad de los muertos identificados como mujeres y niños.



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Manchester synagogue attacker ‘pledged allegiance to Islamic State,’ police say

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The suspect behind last week’s deadly car and knife terror attack outside a synagogue in Manchester allegedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, authorities said.

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Jihad Al-Shamie, 35, a British citizen of Syrian descent, allegedly called emergency dispatchers to claim responsibility for the attack before pledging allegiance to the Islamic State.

«We have conducted assessments across our systems, and I can reiterate that Al-Shamie had never been referred to the Prevent program, nor was otherwise known to Counter Terrorism Policing,» Assistant Chief Constable Rob Potts said Wednesday. 

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Emergency services escort people to safety after a car and knife terror attack outside Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester, England, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. Police said two people were killed, and four others injured before armed officers shot the suspect. ( Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

UK POLICE ACCIDENTALLY SHOT VICTIM WHILE RUSHING TO STOP SYNAGOGUE ATTACKER

The Prevent program is a U.K. government initiative aimed at offering individuals who are susceptible to radicalization proper interventions to stop them from becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism.

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Head of Counter Terrorism Policing Laurence Taylor said on Oct. 3 that while Al-Shamie was not known to the counterterrorism team, he was on bail at the time of the attack after being arrested on suspicion of rape.

Potts said that police are now «more confident that he was influenced by extreme Islamist ideology, the 999 call forms part of this assessment.»

While Potts pointed to the call as evidence of Al-Shamie’s motivation, he stressed that authorities needed to look across all evidence gathered to determine the motive behind the attack.

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«This assessment continues, and there may be further drivers and motivations identified,» Potts added.

Police officer stands near Manchester synagogue

A police vehicle parked outside the Manchester synagogue, where multiple people were killed on Yom Kippur in what police have declared a terrorist incident, in north Manchester, Britain, on Oct. 5, 2025.  (Hannah McKay/Reuters)

Al-Shamie was shot by police outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue after the attack in which he rammed a car into pedestrians before attacking them with a knife. The attacker was wearing what appeared to be an explosive device, but Potts called it a «hoax device» and said it was later assessed and confirmed to be «non-viable.»

Two congregants, identified as Adrian Daulby, 53, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, died in the attack, which took place on Yom Kippur, Judaism’s holiest day. 

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Police later said that it was likely one of the two victims was accidentally shot by officers who were rushing to stop the attack, as Al-Shamie did not have a gun on him. Reports indicate Daulby was the one shot.

Firefighters and paramedics respond outside Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester, England, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025, after a car was driven into pedestrians and a man was stabbed. Police said four people were injured and the suspect was shot by officers.

Emergency services on scene after a car and knife attack outside Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester, England, on Oct. 2, 2025. (Peter Byrne/PA via AP)

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Potts informed reporters on Wednesday that three people injured during the attack are still hospitalized.

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While investigating whether Al-Shamie acted alone, police arrested three men and three women on suspicion of the «commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism,» The Associated Press reported. 

The people arrested have not been identified and police have not revealed their ties, if any, to Al-Shamie. The AP reported that on Saturday a court gave police five more days to hold four of the suspects, while two, a man and a woman, were released without further action.

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