INTERNACIONAL
Power Rankings: As the House falls, the Senate stays in play
There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year’s contest.
The first is the president’s approval rating, which is lower now than it was during President Donald Trump’s first term in 2018 or President Joe Biden’s term in 2022.
The second is Democrats’ generic ballot lead, which is wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 «blue wave» election and much larger than the edge the GOP had in 2022.
Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year.
REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
Then there’s a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in play right up until the finish line.
In Trump’s first term, the Republicans ended up gaining two Senate seats despite a gloomy national environment. Four years ago, with inflation surging, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their tally.
12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK
The Democrats have plentiful paths to 51 seats on election night. Republicans keep plowing money into six toss-up states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven’t much moved the needle.
Yet the GOP’s paths to 50 are getting wider. That, plus a major update to the House forecast, in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings.
The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year. Now, as another 20 races shift leftward, this forecast sees the Democrats taking control.
THE BLUE WAVE LOOKS REAL UNTIL YOU LOOK A LITTLE CLOSER
Democrats have an advantage in at least 219 seats, while Republicans should hold on to at least 198 seats. There are 18 toss-ups on the board.
On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position. That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections.
POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
(A «great night» for the Democrats, which would see the party take some Lean R seats as well, would mean a Democratic majority of up to 249.)
If the toss-up seats go the other way, the GOP could make life hard for the left. A good night for Republicans would see the party end up with around 216 seats. That’s two short of a majority but also leaves the Democrats with a mere two-vote cushion in the House.
In that scenario, a coalition of far-left Democrats, like the «Squad» of years past, could band together to put policy pressure on the next House speaker. That group is about to get bigger, thanks to the sure-thing victories of Democratic Socialists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.
Some of this week’s shifts are a product of polling. The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has pushed districts like Kentucky’s 6th District (Lexington and its suburbs) and Texas’ 15th District (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) away from the GOP.
The party’s strength in statewide races also plays a role, especially in Iowa (the 1st and 3rd districts, which contain the state’s biggest cities), and in Pennsylvania (three districts have shifted to the left, thanks in part to Governor Josh Shapiro’s coattails).
Other shifts are the result of Republican groups moving resources elsewhere, like from New York’s 19th District. Democratic Rep. Josh Riley lost this race by fewer than 5,000 votes four years ago, but as the GOP sends its money to more winnable races, it’s moving to Solid D.
A more surprising theme is also emerging: the GOP is in trouble with rural voters.
Sitting above Albany, New York’s 21st District contains some of the state’s most rural areas. Its voters delivered President Trump a 21-point victory over Vice President Harris two years ago. A survey last week had the Democratic candidate four points ahead of the Republican, 46%-42%.
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Maine’s 2nd District, which famously voted for President Trump three times in a row – and last time by nine points – is an open race this year after Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement. It was thought to be one of the best flip opportunities for the GOP. A new poll has the Democrat at 51% and the Republican at 45%.
Even Virginia’s 5th District, stretching across the Southside region and home to a two-thirds rural population, is a six-point race in a recent survey (45%-51% with the Republican ahead). The Democrat, Tom Perriello, was recently endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Gas, diesel and grocery prices are to blame. In dollar terms, the cost of living is higher in cities and suburbs, but voters across the country keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.
Iowa, for example, has experienced the fourth-highest gas price hike in the nation. Kentucky, Ohio and Texas are all in the top five states for diesel increases. That has proven tough for GOP candidates to counter.
New York’s 21st District moves from Solid R to Likely R. (Virginia’s 5th and Maine’s 2nd districts remain at Lean R and Toss-up, respectively.)
The Senate is still a toss-up with Democrats and Republicans taking 47 seats apiece. Six toss-ups are the most likely to determine control.
If Democrats win all six of those states, the party will take the majority with two seats to spare, for a total of 53. On the other hand, this forecast still sees a pathway for the GOP not to lose any seats. They’d accomplish that just by holding on to the same six states.
The toss-ups have largely been locked in through summer. There’s been a lot more movement in the «lean» categories (Kansas in, Georgia and North Carolina out). Collectively, you can think of these as the election night battlegrounds.
This week, a ninth state joins the list: Minnesota.
The North Star State has been on the political radar since Republicans recruited Michele Tafoya, the former NFL sideline reporter. She has deftly navigated her foray into politics by focusing on fraud, crime, and the cultural issues that animate GOP voters.
She also has a favorable matchup against Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s sitting lieutenant governor. It’s not clear whether Flanagan’s progressive politics or her proximity to the fraud issue is giving voters pause. Whatever the cause, there are signs that they are.
A new gold-standard survey shows 47% of likely voters support Flanagan, while 43% back Tafoya. Another 9% are undecided.
Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9-in-10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38% back Tafoya, 32% support Flanagan, and 29% haven’t decided.
Minnesota’s voter profile and election history suggest that there are some left-of-center voters in the «independent» column. They may be wavering on Flanagan now, then show up to vote for her on election day.
The Senate hopeful’s spot on the ballot next to Amy Klobuchar, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate and electoral over-performer, may also help push her over the line.
Either way, that poll can’t be ignored. Minnesota moves from Likely D to Lean D.
power rankings, midterm elections, politics, senate elections, elections
INTERNACIONAL
Quién es Leonardo Bertulazzi, el integrante de las Brigadas Rojas italianas que se fugó en San Telmo
Leonardo Bertulazzi tiene 74 años, es italiano y formó parte de las Brigadas Rojas, una organización armada de extrema izquierda que protagonizó una serie de secuestros, atentados y asesinatos durante las décadas de 1970 y 1980. Este martes, su nombre volvió a quedar en el centro de la escena después de que escapara del arresto domiciliario que cumplía en un departamento del barrio porteño de San Telmo, mientras esperaba ser extraditado a su país.
El exintegrante de la organización tenía una condena de 27 años de prisión dictada por la Justicia italiana. Uno de los principales hechos por los que fue sentenciado fue el secuestro del ingeniero naval Pietro Costa, ocurrido en enero de 1977.
Además, las investigaciones lo vincularon con tareas logísticas relacionadas con el secuestro del ex primer ministro italiano Aldo Moro, uno de los episodios más resonantes de la historia política de Italia.
Su participación en las Brigadas Rojas
Bertulazzi integró la columna de Génova de las Brigadas Rojas, una de las estructuras territoriales de la organización. El grupo armado desarrolló buena parte de su actividad durante los llamados años de plomo, un período marcado por la violencia política, los atentados y los enfrentamientos entre organizaciones extremistas en Italia.
El 12 de enero de 1977, el ingeniero naval Pietro Costa fue secuestrado por integrantes de la organización. Costa pertenecía a una familia vinculada con la industria de los astilleros y permaneció cautivo hasta fines de marzo de ese año, cuando fue liberado después del pago de un rescate.
Por ese episodio y su pertenencia a la organización armada, Bertulazzi recibió una condena de 27 años de prisión. La sentencia quedó firme en Italia. Su nombre también apareció relacionado con el secuestro de Aldo Moro, quien había sido primer ministro italiano y era una de las figuras más importantes de la Democracia Cristiana.
El secuestro y asesinato de Aldo Moro
El 16 de marzo de 1978, un comando de las Brigadas Rojas interceptó el vehículo en el que viajaba Moro, asesinó a sus cinco custodios y secuestró al dirigente político en Roma.
El ex primer ministro permaneció cautivo durante 55 días. Finalmente, el 9 de mayo de ese año, su cuerpo fue encontrado dentro de un automóvil abandonado en el centro de la capital italiana.
Bertulazzi fue señalado por su participación en tareas logísticas de la organización durante ese período. Si bien su condena de 27 años estuvo vinculada principalmente con el secuestro de Pietro Costa, su trayectoria dentro de las Brigadas Rojas también quedó asociada a uno de los crímenes más impactantes de la historia contemporánea italiana.
Sus primeros años prófugo y su llegada a la Argentina
Bertulazzi permaneció prófugo durante décadas. Llegó a la Argentina en 2002 y ese mismo año fue detenido por primera vez, aunque recuperó la libertad meses después.
En 2004 obtuvo el reconocimiento como refugiado político, una condición que impidió que avanzara su extradición a Italia. De esa manera, pudo permanecer en el país durante años pese a los requerimientos de la Justicia italiana.
La situación cambió en agosto de 2024, cuando el Gobierno argentino le retiró esa condición y volvió a detenerlo en Buenos Aires, después de un operativo de inteligencia en el que participaron distintas áreas del Estado.
Desde entonces, permanecía bajo arresto domiciliario mientras se resolvía el proceso de extradición. La Corte Suprema de Justicia había declarado procedente el pedido de Italia, aunque todavía quedaban cuestiones judiciales pendientes vinculadas con su anterior condición de refugiado.
Tras la fuga, el Gobierno nacional oficializó una recompensa de $20 millones para quienes aporten información que permita localizar y detener a Bertulazzi.
La medida quedó establecida mediante la Resolución 1168/2026, publicada en el Boletín Oficial, en el marco del Programa Nacional de Recompensas. Quienes tengan información sobre su paradero pueden comunicarse de manera gratuita con la línea 134.
Italia, Terrorismo, secuestro
INTERNACIONAL
Dakota Meyer survived a battle he thought would kill him. 15 years after leaving the Marines, he went back
Fifteen years after Dakota Meyer left the Marine Corps, the Medal of Honor recipient decided to put the uniform back on — becoming the first with the award to ever reenlist.
Meyer was 36. He had fought in Afghanistan, struggled with the transition home from war and spent years building a life outside the military. But he said the desire to serve never went away.
«Every day after I took that uniform off, that desire to serve didn’t just end because my commitment to the country did,» Meyer told Digital in an interview ahead of Veterans Day.
AMERICAN WAR HERO DETAILS DIRE LIVING CONDITIONS US TROOPS FACE AS HEGSETH TAPS HIM TO ‘FIX’ IT
Meyer rejects the idea that receiving the Medal of Honor meant he had already done enough.
«I think sometimes it’s looked at as you’ve done your part, and I am wholeheartedly against that,» he said. «I believe that the only time you’ve done your part is when you’ve done all that you can.»
For Meyer, Veterans Day is a reminder that service does not necessarily end when someone leaves the military.
«Sometimes we look at the veteran title as it is something that represents something we’ve done,» Meyer said. «And it’s not. It’s something that we are doing, and it is something that we can continue to do.»
Meyer re-enlisted in 2025 and later entered the training pipeline to become a reconnaissance Marine, completing the grueling course in his late 30s.
«To be able to do that at 38, it was definitely one of the — hands down — probably the hardest thing that I’ve ever had to do,» Meyer said.
His first stint in the Marines had taken him to Afghanistan, where at 21 he fought in the 2009 Battle of Ganjgal in Kunar Province.
Meyer had been assigned to remain with the vehicles at a rally point while other members of his team accompanied Afghan troops toward the village roughly a mile away. The patrol was ambushed by more than 50 insurgents firing from fortified positions on the surrounding slopes.
MEDAL OF HONOR RECIPIENT JAMES CAPERS JR. SAYS RECOGNITION IS BITTERSWEET AFTER LOSING ‘SO MUCH’
Meyer and Staff Sgt. Juan Rodriguez-Chavez could hear the battle unfolding over the radio. Four members of Meyer’s team were trapped inside the ambush.
After repeatedly asking for permission to go in, Meyer and Rodriguez-Chavez drove toward the fighting, with Meyer manning the gun turret.
«I think often we try to make these decisions as if it’s some heroic decision, and it’s really not,» Meyer said. «It’s just about following through on what my promise that I had made to them.»
The pair made repeated trips into the ambush, helping evacuate wounded troops as Meyer continued searching for his teammates.
«I think it was at that point that I did realize that I just accepted that I was going to die,» Meyer recalled. «But I was gonna make sure that I would do everything I could up until that last breath.»
His four teammates were ultimately found dead. Meyer would receive the Medal of Honor for his actions that day.
Leaving the Marines the following year brought a different battle.
«I struggled. I mean, I struggled,» Meyer said. «The horrors of war definitely haunted me when I got out.»
Meyer said one of the hardest parts of returning to civilian life was figuring out what could replace the sense of purpose he had found in the military.
«The hardest part was finding purpose,» he said. «It wasn’t about being successful in anything.»
Eventually, he said, he realized that neither money nor professional success was what he was looking for. He wanted to feel that his work had an impact.
Years later, while speaking to a group of Marines at Camp Pendleton, that question of purpose came back to him in a different way.
A Marine attending a leadership course told Meyer he was deciding whether to reenlist. He had a family and could make more money outside the military, but he loved serving.
«Do you think it’s still worth serving?» he asked.
Meyer said yes, but the answer bothered him.
«I felt it was one of the most unbecoming things that I had ever said back to that crowd,» Meyer said, explaining that he was telling someone else to accept the sacrifices of continued service while he was free to return to civilian life.
«I told them that I would walk out of there and I would go about reenlisting or I would never say that to anybody again.»
It ultimately took Meyer about two years to return to the Marines.
Once back, he pursued a goal he had held since first seeing a Recon Marine poster in a recruiting office as a young man.
«They were the people that we were all trying to be inside of the Marine Corps,» Meyer said.
At 37 and 38, keeping up physically wasn’t necessarily the problem, but recovering felt different.
«What got me was the cumulative fatigue at my age,» Meyer said. «These kids can recover like nothing else.»
The experience also gave Meyer a close look at a generation of Marines nearly two decades younger than the one he had served alongside in Afghanistan.
He came away impressed.
«When we talk about service members or this next generation being weaker, it’s absolutely not the case,» Meyer said. «These kids are hands down, they will rise to the level of expectation that is set for them.»
Meyer said the Marine Corps itself has changed since he left in 2010, but he viewed much of that change as necessary. He recalled younger Marines giving him an hour-long lesson on their «new language» during a break in training and said he often found himself learning from them.
«They do things a lot smarter,» Meyer said. «I found myself learning a lot more from them than I did them probably learning from me.»
He said today’s young service members don’t have a «generational problem,» and said they still want the challenge, purpose and sense of belonging that drew those to serve before them.
politics, veterans, us marines, military, heroism, pentagon
Una nueva caravana integrada por aproximadamente 2,000 migrantes de Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala y Nicaraguasalió este martes de Tapachula, en el estado mexicano de Chiapas, con la intención de avanzar hacia la frontera de Estados Unidos, en medio de las expectativas de un posible cambio en las políticas migratorias de Washington.
La movilización, que comenzó el pasado sábado desde San Pedro Sula, Honduras, continuó su recorrido desde el sur de México, donde los participantes esperan avanzar de manera pacífica y conseguir mejores oportunidades para sus familias.
El desplazamiento ocurre una semana después de las elecciones de medio mandato en Estados Unidos, cuyos resultados modificaron el escenario político para el presidente Donald Trump, luego de que los demócratas recuperaran el control legislativo, un resultado que despertó expectativas entre los migrantes sobre un posible freno a las políticas migratorias restrictivas.
Sin embargo, aunque los integrantes de la caravana mantienen la esperanza de encontrar oportunidades en territorio estadounidense, organizaciones que acompañan a la población migrante consideran que los resultados electorales no necesariamente provocarán cambios inmediatos en las medidas migratorias.
De acuerdo con información proporcionada a la agencia EFE, uno de los participantes es Álvaro José Vanegas Estrada, migrante de Nicaragua, quien emprendió el recorrido con apenas 20 dólares, dejando atrás sus actividades agrícolas, a su esposa y a sus dos hijos.
El hombre explicó que decidió salir de su país con la expectativa de encontrar una oportunidad laboral que le permita mejorar las condiciones económicas de su familia.
Vanegas considera que la participación de la comunidad latina en diferentes sectores productivos de Estados Unidos podría representar una oportunidad para quienes buscan ingresar al mercado laboral.
«El gobierno estadounidense sabe que el 19 % de la comunidad latina es la que hace el trabajo pesado, lo que es la construcción y la hotelería. Entonces en este momento ha visto que ha bajado ese punto de trabajo y creo que tal vez, nos dé la oportunidad de entrar», expresó a EFE.
No obstante, el migrante explicó que su intención inicial no necesariamente es cruzar de inmediato hacia Estados Unidos, sino llegar al norte de México, permanecer allí durante un tiempo y conseguir trabajo para enviar dinero a su familia mientras espera posibles cambios en las decisiones migratorias estadounidenses.
Entre los participantes de la caravana también se encuentra el hondureño Bili Noe Martínez Colindres, quien hizo un llamado al Instituto Nacional de Migración (INM) de México para que permita el desplazamiento de los migrantes sin obstáculos y de manera pacífica.
El compatriota manifestó que las personas que integran la movilización buscan oportunidades para mejorar la vida de sus familiares y pidió respeto durante el recorrido por territorio mexicano.
«Nosotros solo queremos un sueño para nuestras familias, respeto a nosotros, respetamos a México y Guatemala. Es el llamado que le hacemos como hondureños a usted señora presidenta (Claudia Sheinbaum), que nos apoye con ese permiso», manifestó.
La petición está dirigida a las autoridades mexicanas, particularmente a la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum, para que los integrantes de la caravana puedan continuar su desplazamiento sin enfrentar dificultades relacionadas con su condición migratoria.
El recorrido hasta la frontera mexicana con Estados Unidos representa un trayecto de aproximadamente 3,000 kilómetros, una distancia que los migrantes deberán cubrir en diferentes etapas y bajo condiciones que pueden complicar su avance.
Entre los migrantes existe la percepción de que el cambio en la composición del Congreso estadounidense podría abrir espacios para revisar algunas de las medidas migratorias impulsadas por el mandatario republicano.
Sin embargo, Luis García Villagrán, representante del Centro de Dignificación Humana A.C., organización que trabaja en la frontera sur de México, consideró que no se esperan modificaciones importantes en la política migratoria estadounidense como consecuencia inmediata de los resultados electorales.
«No creo que vaya a cambiar mucho, pero en ánimo de la gente sí ayudó mucho, para que la gente se anime a salir caminando y tratar de llegar lo más cerca de la frontera norte», señaló el activista.
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