Updated Nov. 1:

We’re updating this forecast to move Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up, and Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R.

Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.

The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.

We still consider Senate control a toss-up.

Seven states are most likely to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 55 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.

TRUMP-BACKED SENATOR ADMITS GOP FACES NIGHTMARE SCENARIO IN STATE REPUBLICANS HAVEN’T LOST IN 90 YEARS

—

It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.

SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: DEMOCRATS COULD BE RIDING A MIDTERM WAVE. THESE NUMBERS SHOULD TERRIFY THE GOP

The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.

That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll.

The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.

That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.

How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?

Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.

POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House, and possibly by many seats.

Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.

GOP SENATE MAJORITY FACES FRESH UNCERTAINTY AS 2 KEY RACES TIGHTEN DAYS BEFORE MIDTERMS

The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.

That’s why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority, and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.

We’ll find out next week.

In his 11-year political career, Trump has triumphed over almost all the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.

It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.

This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran. The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.

First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began. It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.

The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues. In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%), and the war in Iran itself (75%).

Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership, and 9 points on foreign policy.

Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.

That comes down to the territory. Trump won seven of the 11 battleground states in 2024, and seven of them by double digits. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

Democrats don’t need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but it’s hard to see how they get to 51 seats without at least two of them.

While former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, the other states are close. Turnout, a polling error in either direction or both could decide them.

There are also a lot of undecided voters. In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates.

Any guess on how those voters will break at the ballot box is only a guess. All we know from prior results is that the overall electorate leans conservative, so the Democrats have the tougher assignment to bring them over to their side (or keep them at home).

There are far fewer undecided voters in Texas, where last week’s Poll showed a tied race at 49%-49%.

If Democrats only win two Trump-won battlegrounds, they’ll need to win three other races where former Vice President Kamala Harris delivered single-digit victories in 2024: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Democrats are ahead in the latter two. Maine could go either way. While Democrats win its presidential races, it could just as easily be considered a Republican state when Susan Collins is on the ballot.

Both parties are short of a majority in this forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 45.

On a good night for Democrats, the party would win most or all the toss-ups, taking the majority with up to 55 seats. In that scenario, other competitive states would also come into focus, including Nebraska, and possibly Mississippi.

A good night for the Republicans would see them simply hold on to most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats. The party also has opportunities to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Five states have moved in Power Rankings forecasts this week.

In Ohio, Brown has enjoyed a lead in three polls this year, including last week’s survey, which had him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 52%-47%.

Ohio voters are very familiar with Brown, having sent him to the Senate three times. That has made it hard for Husted to campaign on socialism and woke politics, themes that Republicans elsewhere see as their strongest cards to play.

Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean D.

(«Lean D» means the Democrat has an edge, but it’s still a highly competitive race. We define every ranking and the process for setting them on FoxNews.com.)

As this week’s Power Rankings previously reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.

The president headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.

South Carolina moves from Lean R to Toss-up.

Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.

Kansas moves from Lean R to Toss-up.

The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.

Nebraska moves from Likely R to Lean R.

Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to rally there over other deep red states is a sign that the party thinks it’s competitive.

GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a race where protein choice has become a breakout issue.

Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R.

Democrats are still likely to flip the House this November, and in this forecast, they’re predicted to take at least 223 seats.

Since a good night for the Democrats would see them take most of the toss-up races, they could end up with as many as 240 seats.

(On a great Democratic night, the party would pick up most of the Lean R districts as well, taking them as high as 252 seats.)

Republicans have 195 seats in their columns. A good night for them would take that total up to around 212. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.

Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength, and rural voter erosion.

The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th District, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle. The district moves from Lean R to Toss-up.

Finally, Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also on the move. The campaign between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was the top story in politics last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.

Acton has been estranged from her mother since age 12, when she says she and her brother left her family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Acton’s brother now appears in a response ad discussing their family history.

This ratings change is less about the response to the ad (Ramaswamy and President Trump are supportive of the commercial; most others, including Husted and Gov. Mike DeWine are against it) than it is about the fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt the need to run it.

While Ramaswamy sat only two points behind Acton in last week’s Fox poll, he’s an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September.

The businessman and onetime presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.

The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean D.

SIGN UP TO GET THE POLITICS NEWSLETTER

—

Fox News’ special coverage of the 2026 midterm elections begins at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, Nov. 3, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Tune in for the latest race calls and projections for control of the House and Senate from the Decision Desk. 

power rankings, politics, midterm elections, senate, elections

In two days, Americans voting in the midterm elections will decide control of the U.S. House and Senate for the next two years.

Republicans are defending their slim congressional majorities, but President Donald Trump predicts the GOP will hold the House and Senate.

«If you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on Nov. 3, we will continue to put America first every single day,» the president pledged on the campaign trail last week. And he claimed if the Democrats take control, «this country will go to hell.»

CHECK OUT THE FINAL POWER RANKINGS IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Republicans are fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. The GOP also faces a challenging political climate fueled by persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and Trump’s increasingly negative approval ratings.

Also up for grabs in this year’s midterm elections — governorships in 36 of the 50 states (as well as the territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands). Plus, all but four states are holding legislative elections. And voters will also weigh in on 145 statewide ballot measures in states from coast to coast.

Here’s a closer look at what’s up for grabs on Election Day 2026.

Republicans currently control the chamber 53-47, with the final Power Rankings ahead of Election Day rating the race for Senate control a toss-up.

Both parties are three seats short of a majority, according to the forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 47. The GOP needs to hold 50 seats to retain control of the chamber, since Republican Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

WHO’S UP AND DOWN IN THE FINAL MIDTERM ELECTION POLLS

If Democrats ride a blue wave to victory by winning most or all of the competitive races, they could potentially come away from the midterms with up to 54 seats. But if Republicans have a good night and defy expectations, the GOP could hold the majority with up to 52 seats, according to the forecast.

Republicans are playing defense in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina and Texas, which are all rated toss-ups in the Power Rankings. They’re also defending seats in competitive races in Kansas, which is rated Lean Republican, and Ohio, which is rated Lean Democrat.

Democrats are on defense in Michigan, which is rated a toss-up, and in Minnesota and New Hampshire, which are listed as Lean Democrat.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

The GOP is hanging on to a razor-thin majority in the House, and the Power Rankings point to the Democrats retaking control of the chamber.

A good night for the Democrats could see them ending up with as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber. But if Republicans have a good night, they could end up with 212 seats. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.

SIGN UP TO GET THE POLITICS NEWSLETTER

The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future.

«Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th District, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle,» Remy Numa, a contributor who steers the network’s Power Rankings, said.

There are currently 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors.

The Power Rankings list three states where the GOP controls the governor’s office – Alaska, Nevada and Georgia – as toss-ups. Wisconsin, which has an open Democratic-controlled governor’s office, is also rated a toss-up.

The gubernatorial races in red states Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican, according to the Power Rankings.

DEMOCRACY 2026: STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE ELECTION HUB

Five other races are also seen as competitive and rated Lean Democrat. They are Arizona, Michigan and Oregon, where Democrats are playing defense, and Iowa and Ohio, where the GOP is defending open governor’s offices.

Referendums requiring voters to present identification when they show up at the polls, or bans on noncitizen voting, are on the ballot in 11 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia.

Voters in Alaska will also decide if they want to repeal the state’s ranked choice voting system, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule. Voters approved the current system in 2020 and narrowly kept it in 2024.

But the voting system has come under fresh scrutiny amid the controversy over a potential spoiler candidate in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race.

Voters in Virginia will decide whether the right to vote should be restored to convicted felons upon their release.

California’s Proposition 40 is making national headlines.

The measure, the first of its kind, would slap a one-time 5% tax on wealth for Californians worth over $1 billion, with the vast majority of the revenue generated going to pay for healthcare.

Also in the spotlight is a millionaires’ tax in Washington state. If passed, the referendum would repeal a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million a year, which state lawmakers recently approved. Washington state currently does not have a personal income tax.

Voters in Maryland, Missouri and Colorado weigh in on ballot measures on congressional redistricting, as the mid-decade redistricting fight between Democrats and Republicans will be waged again in 2028.

Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington state have referendums on transgender students’ participation in sports. Colorado also has a referendum on blocking gender transition surgeries for minors and preventing state or federal funding from being used for those operations.

Voters in Missouri weigh in on repealing a right to abortion and banning gender transition medical care for children. Meanwhile, an Idaho initiative would overturn one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans, while Virginia and Nevada voters decide on establishing a right to abortion in their state constitutions.

California, Colorado and Arizona hold ballot measures on policy around energy, transportation and development. 

The first poll closings come at 6 p.m. ET on Election Day, with the final poll closings happening at 1 a.m. ET.

6 p.m. ET: Polls close in parts of Kentucky and Indiana.

7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. The final polls in Kentucky and Indiana close. And most polls in Florida and New Hampshire close.

7:30 p.m. ET: Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, D.C. The remaining polls in Florida and New Hampshire close. Most polls close in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

8:30 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arkansas.

9 p.m. PT: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming. The final polls close in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Montana and Utah. Most polls also close in Idaho and Oregon.

11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California and Washington state, with the remaining polls in Idaho and Oregon also closing.

Midnight ET: Polls in all of Hawaii and most of Alaska close, with the remaining polls in Alaska closing at 1 a.m. ET.

politics, midterm elections, elections, house of representatives, senate elections, gubernatorial, donald trump

Una nueva investigación del Instituto Smithsonian identificó posibles refugios climáticos en Panamá donde especies de ranas amenazadas de extinción podrían sobrevivir a una enfermedad que ha devastado sus poblaciones durante décadas.

El hallazgo abre nuevas posibilidades para reintroducir anfibios criados en cautiverio en ambientes naturales con condiciones menos favorables para el desarrollo del hongo responsable de su desaparición.

El estudio, desarrollado por científicos del Instituto Smithsonian de Investigaciones Tropicales (STRI) y el Zoológico Nacional y el Instituto de Biología de la Conservación del Smithsonian, fue publicado en la revista Journal for Nature Conservation.

Los investigadores utilizaron modelos climáticos y mapas de distribución de enfermedades para localizar áreas con mayores probabilidades de supervivencia.

La principal amenaza es la quitridiomicosis, una enfermedad provocada por el hongo Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, que comenzó a propagarse por Centroamérica y Sudamérica desde la década de 1970.

Su expansión ha provocado la desaparición de numerosas poblaciones de anfibios, particularmente de especies del género Atelopus, conocidas como sapos arlequín.

Entre los anfibios afectados se encuentra la rana dorada panameña (Atelopus zeteki), símbolo ecológico y cultural del país, que lleva más de 15 años sin registrarse en estado silvestre.

Su supervivencia depende actualmente de programas especializados de reproducción y conservación, desarrollados para evitar su extinción definitiva.

El problema para los científicos es que el hongo continúa presente en gran parte de los antiguos hábitats de estas especies. Los intentos de devolver ejemplares criados bajo cuidado humano a los bosques han registrado pérdidas importantes por infecciones, incluso después de años de reproducción y preparación.

Brian Gratwicke, biólogo conservacionista del Smithsonian y uno de los autores del estudio, explicó que la identificación de refugios climáticos permitirá seleccionar mejor los lugares de liberación.

La herramienta busca reducir las pérdidas observadas en experiencias anteriores, cuando los animales reintroducidos quedaron expuestos al patógeno que persiste en el ambiente.

Los investigadores determinaron que la intensidad de la enfermedad cambia según la temperatura, la humedad y las estaciones, de manera similar a las variaciones estacionales de algunas infecciones humanas.

A partir de estos patrones, elaboraron mapas que permiten identificar territorios menos adecuados para el hongo, pero potencialmente favorables para las ranas.

Uno de los principales resultados señala que la mayoría de las especies de sapos arlequín que persisten en Panamá habitan lugares donde más del 80% de las estaciones presentan condiciones desfavorables para infecciones de intensidad media o alta, lo que podría explicar su supervivencia.

La investigación encontró una excepción en el sapo arlequín variable (Atelopus varius), localizado también en ambientes donde la enfermedad puede desarrollarse. Este comportamiento coincide con evidencias anteriores que sugieren una posible resistencia de la especie al hongo, aunque los científicos todavía necesitan comprender mejor sus mecanismos de defensa.

Los mapas también podrían facilitar el descubrimiento de poblaciones silvestres que permanecen sin identificar, especialmente en regiones donde se considera que determinadas especies desaparecieron.

Carrie Lewis, investigadora de la Universidad George Mason y autora principal, destacó que estos grupos podrían aportar diversidad genética a los programas de conservación.

La presencia de ejemplares sobrevivientes permitiría fortalecer las poblaciones mantenidas bajo cuidado humano y ampliar las oportunidades de recuperación en los ecosistemas naturales.

Para los especialistas, identificar estos refugios representa una estrategia complementaria a la reproducción en cautiverio, utilizada durante años para proteger especies amenazadas.

El trabajo también examinó los posibles efectos del cambio climático sobre la distribución de la enfermedad. Algunos lugares actualmente favorables para el hongo podrían convertirse en refugios durante los próximos años, aunque el aumento de las temperaturas también amenaza a los anfibios adaptados a ambientes montañosos más fríos.

Roberto Ibáñez, científico del Smithsonian en Panamá y coautor de la investigación, informó que ya comenzaron las inspecciones de posibles lugares de reintroducción.

Los equipos evalúan las características del hábitat y las condiciones ambientales antes de desarrollar nuevos ensayos experimentales de liberación que permitan comprobar los resultados de los modelos.

El avance se relaciona con los esfuerzos para recuperar la rana dorada panameña, cuya desaparición de los bosques impulsó programas de reproducción especializados. En febrero de 2026 se conocieron resultados de un ensayo con 100 ejemplares mantenidos durante 12 semanas en recintos de adaptación, diseñados para estudiar su transición hacia condiciones naturales.

Aquella experiencia evidenció las dificultades del proceso, debido a que cerca del 70% de los animales murió por la enfermedad. Sin embargo, los datos permitieron estudiar su comportamiento y adaptación, además de identificar aspectos que deben mejorarse antes de futuras liberaciones en ambientes abiertos.

El Proyecto de Rescate y Conservación de Anfibios de Panamá, establecido en 2009, reúne instituciones científicas y zoológicos dedicados a proteger especies amenazadas. Su trabajo combina reproducción, investigación de enfermedades y pruebas de reintroducción, con el propósito de recuperar poblaciones capaces de mantenerse en la naturaleza.

Aunque los científicos todavía no pueden garantizar el éxito de las liberaciones, la identificación de refugios climáticos ofrece una herramienta para reducir los riesgos y orientar las decisiones de conservación. El objetivo es que especies como la rana dorada puedan recuperar parte de sus antiguos hábitats, después de permanecer durante años bajo protección humana.

rana dardo dorada,venenosa,bosque tropical