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Examining NATO: Inside the ‘commitment gap’ as US carries alliance deterrence

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This is part one of a series examining the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.

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As President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending — and orders the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany over the next six to 12 months — a deeper issue is coming into focus: even as allied budgets rise, NATO still depends heavily on American military power to function.

NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, «I told the president… maybe you ought to talk about a tiered relationship with NATO,» Kellogg described conversations with Donald Trump in his first term about the alliance’s future. «…we need to develop a new, for lack of a better term, a new NATO a new defensive alignment with Europe.»

Kellogg, who served as a senior national security official during Trump’s first term, said the alliance has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what he sees as a growing gap between commitments and real capability.

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NATO CHIEF SIGNALS ALLIES MAY ACT ON HORMUZ, WARNS OF ‘UNHEALTHY CODEPENDENCE’ ON US

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer pose with NATO country leaders during the NATO Heads of State and Government summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall/Pool/Reuters)

«You started with 12, and you went to 32, and in the process, I think you diluted the impact,» he argued, calling today’s NATO «a very bloated architecture.»

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«They haven’t put the money into defense. Their defense industry and defense forces have atrophied. When you look at the Brits right now, they could barely deploy forces: they have two aircraft carriers, both under maintenance. Their brigades are like one out of six that work. And you just look at the capability, it’s just not there. So I think we need to realize that and say, well, we need something different,» Kellogg, who is the co-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.

But not everyone agrees the alliance is losing relevance.

«It has never been more relevant,» said John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains central to U.S. national security.

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«The reason for that is twofold,» he said. «One, it’s our comparative advantage versus the Chinese and the Russians… they don’t have anything like this.»

«And the second reason… NATO underwrites the security and stability of our most important trade and investment relationship,» he added, referring to economic ties between North America and Europe.

NATO ALLIES CLASH AFTER RUSSIAN JETS BREACH AIRSPACE, TESTING ALLIANCE RESOLVE

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NATO Chiefs of Defense holding a hybrid meeting with screens showing allied leaders joining remotely

NATO Chiefs of Defense hold a hybrid meeting in Brussels on Aug. 20, 2025, with screens displaying allied leaders joining remotely to discuss Ukraine. (Fox News)

Dependence: Design or Weakness?

By around 2010, the United States accounted for roughly 65% to 70% of NATO defense spending, according to analysis provided by Barak Seener from the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.

«They’ve always been dependent on the U.S.,» Kellogg said of the European allies.

«The allies overall rely upon one another for deterrence and defense by design,» Deni said, explaining that alliances exist to «pool their resources» and «aggregate their individual strengths.»

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Deni pointed to ground forces as a clear example of what the U.S. gains from the alliance, noting that «there are far more allied mechanized infantry forces on the ground than there are Americans.»

Still, he acknowledged that reliance has at times gone too far.

«In the past… it was fair to say that the European allies were overly reliant upon the Americans for conventional defense,» he said, pointing to the 2000s.

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That, he said, was partly driven by U.S. priorities — as Washington pushed European allies to focus on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq rather than territorial defense.

A Polish soldier sits inside a military tank with a NATO flag visible in the background.

A Polish Army soldier sits in a tank as a NATO flag flies behind during the NATO Noble Jump VJTF exercises on June 18, 2015, in Zagan, Poland. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Seener describes NATO as «formally collective, but functionally asymmetric,» with the U.S. providing a disproportionate share of «high-end capabilities.»

That asymmetry is most visible in nuclear deterrence.

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Seener said the U.S. provides the overwhelming majority of NATO’s nuclear arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategic bombers — meaning deterrence ultimately relies on the assumption of U.S. retaliation.

A NATO official told Fox News Digital that, «The U.S. nuclear deterrent cannot be replaced, but it is clear that Europe needs to step up. There’s no question. There needs to be a better balance when it comes to our defense and security. Both because we see the vital role the U.S. plays around the world and the resources that it demands, and also because it is only fair.»

«The good news,» the official added, «is that the Allies are doing exactly that. They are stepping up, working together — and with the U.S. — to ensure we collectively have what we need to deter and defend one billion people living across the Euro-Atlantic area.»

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NATO LAUNCHES ARCTIC SECURITY PUSH AS TRUMP EYES GREENLAND TAKEOVER

Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters flying over Lithuanian Vilkas infantry fighting vehicle near Hohenfels Germany

Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters of the U.S. Army 12th Combat Aviation Brigade fly over a Lithuanian Vilkas infantry fighting vehicle during the Allied Spirit 25 military exercise near Hohenfels, Germany, on March 12, 2025.

The Systems NATO Cannot Replace

Beyond nuclear weapons, the dependence runs through the alliance’s operational backbone.

Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — as well as logistics and command systems — as essential to NATO operations.

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«Without U.S. intelligence and surveillance, NATO loses situational awareness and early warning capabilities,» Seener said, adding, «So that means that Russia, for example, can attack Europe. And theoretically, if there’s no NATO and the U.S. is not involved, Europe would not be aware, or it would take it too long to be able to defend itself.»

Kellogg also says that much of Europe’s military capability falls short of top-tier systems.

«For the most part, their equipment, if you had to grade it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re kind of like B players or C players,» he said. «It’s not the first line of work.»

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He pointed to air and missile defense as a key gap, noting that while European countries rely on U.S.-made systems such as Patriot and THAAD, «they don’t have a system that’s comparable.»

Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defense industries «have atrophied,» adding that the United States is also now «relearning that as well.»

TRUMP AFFIRMS US ‘WILL ALWAYS BE THERE FOR NATO,’ WHILE EXPRESSING DOUBTS ABOUT ALLIANCE

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looking on as U.S. President Donald Trump and Poland's President Andrzej Duda talk during a working lunch

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looks on as President Donald Trump and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda talk during a working lunch at the NATO leaders summit in Watford, Britain, on Dec. 4, 2019. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Deni said the picture today is more mixed.

«Alliance defense spending has been up… and has spiked far more after 2022,» he said, pointing to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 as a turning point.

But he cautioned that capability gains take time, noting that many improvements are still years away from full deployment.

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Deni pointed to recent European purchases of U.S. systems as evidence of growing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring the F-35 fighter jet from the U.S.

«You can’t build an F-35 overnight,» he said, adding that many of these improvements will take years to fully materialize.

A NATO official told Fox News Digital the alliance «needs to move further and faster» to meet growing threats, pointing to new capability targets agreed by defense ministers in June 2025.

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Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg addresses attendees during a security conference in Warsaw.

Keith Kellogg speaks during the Warsaw Security Forum 2025 on Sept. 30, 2025, in Warsaw, Poland. (Marek Antoni Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The official said priorities include air and missile defense, long-range weapons, logistics and large land forces, noting that while details remain classified, plans call for a fivefold increase in air and missile defense, «thousands more» armored vehicles and tanks, and «millions more» artillery shells. NATO also aims to double key enabling capabilities such as logistics, transportation and medical support.

The official added that allies are increasing investments in warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, as well as space and cyber capabilities, while boosting readiness and modernizing command and control.

«These targets are now included in national plans,» the official said, adding that allies must demonstrate how they will meet them through sustained defense spending and capability development.

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The NATO official also noted that European allies lead multinational forces across Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. and Canada serve as framework nations in Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing air policing missions and NATO’s KFOR operation in Kosovo.

Nato drill

One of three Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft takes off from the Blekinge Wing F17, based in Kallinge southern Sweden for a base in Sardinia to join the Nato-led operation in Libya, on Saturday, April 2, 2011. As Sweden joins NATO, it bids a final farewell to more than two centuries of neutrality. (AP Photo/Scanpix/Patric Soderstrom, File)

What happens if the U.S. is stretched?

Kellogg’s warning is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends on U.S. presence.

«The one you always have to worry about… is Russia,» Kellogg, who was Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia in 2025, said.

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If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could face serious strain — particularly in areas like intelligence and logistics.

For Kellogg, the danger is delay. «We won’t know until it happens,» he said. «And then you won’t be able to respond to it.»

Deni, however, said the alliance remains a strategic asset — not a liability.

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NATO military force standing guard outside the World Forum in The Hague

A NATO military force stands guard outside the World Forum in The Hague ahead of the two-day NATO summit on June 22, 2025. (Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP)

The question, he suggests, is not whether NATO still works. It is whether allies can adapt fast enough to keep it working.

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‘You failed your son first’: Howard prof blames father’s values after Karmelo Anthony murdered his son

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A Howard University professor tore into the victim-impact statement delivered by the father of slain Texas teen Austin Metcalf, arguing that the teen’s death «did not begin with the knife» wielded by Karmelo Anthony but instead that his father’s parenting style was to be blamed as well.

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Dr. Stacey Patton, a professor at Howard University’s School of Communications, penned an opinion piece titled «Dear Jeff Metcalf: Your Son Is Dead Because You Failed to Teach Him That Black Boys Have Boundaries» to Substack on Wednesday on Substack, where she insinuated Anthony was acting out of self-defense.

«YOU failed to teach your boy that Black children have boundaries,» Patton wrote. «YOU failed teach humility, restraint, or the sacred fact that another person’s body is not your jurisdiction. YOU failed to teach him that another child’s space is not a challenge to be conquered. YOU failed to teach him that «community» does not mean white boys get to decide who belongs and who does not.»

Patton’s piece was published a day after Anthony was sentenced to 35 years in prison for the murder of Metcalf. The case drew national after now 19-year-old Anthony stabbed 17-year-old Metcalf in the heart during a confrontation at a high school track meeting in April 2025. The case has become a flashpoint in broader debates about race, with Anthony’s supporters arguing he has been treated differently because he is Black, while critics have rejected efforts to make the murder of Metcalf, a white teenager, about race.

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GRIEVING TEXAS FATHER SPEAKS OUT AFTER SON WAS STABBED TO DEATH AT HIGH SCHOOL TRACK MEET

Left: Austin Metcalf is pictured. Right: Karmelo Anthony is pictured in a mugshot after being taken into custody following his murder conviction. (Jeff Metcalf; Collin County Sheriff’s Office)

«YOU obviously failed to teach your son that touching, confronting, crowding, testing, or policing another person can have consequences,» Patton wrote. «And YOU failed to teach him that the same world that cheers white boys for being bold and aggressive will not always be there to save them when they mistake somebody else’s restraint for permission.»

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She blasted Jeff for saying that Anthony had failed his parents in his decision to murder his son.

«It is easier to stand in a courtroom and call Karmelo Anthony a failure than it is to admit that Austin’s death did not begin with the knife,» Patton wrote. «It began with every lesson that told your son that he had the right to approach, challenge, and cross a boundary. It began with every adult who smiled at white boy entitlement and called it leadership. It began with every cultural script that taught him Black boys are the ones to be feared, but never taught him that Black boys might also be afraid.

AMERICA STILL CAN’T PUT DOWN THE RACE CARD. AND IT’S THE SHAME OF OUR NATION

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Jeff Metcalf speaking at a podium during a public event.

Jeff Metcalf speaks about the stabbing death of his son, Austin Metcalf, at a high school track meet. (Jeff Metcalf)

She also alleged that Jeff’s victim-impact statement was rooted in racism, homing in on Jeff saying that Anthony does «not belong» in the community because of what he did.

«You don’t belong in this community» is not just a father’s grief spilling over,» Patton wrote. «It is a declaration of removal. And it is the language of somebody who believes he has the authority to decide who gets to stay, who must disappear, and whose presence contaminates the social order. Like father, like son.»

«Your words landed on top of centuries of Black children being told they do not belong in white schools, neighborhoods, playgrounds, pools, churches, white juries, white imaginations, and white definitions of innocence,» Patton continues. «They landed on top of every Black boy this country has turned into a threat before he ever had a chance to be a child.»

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AUSTIN METCALF’S FAMILY HIT WITH DEATH THREATS AS KARMELO ANTHONY SUPPORTERS FACE VIOLENCE ALLEGATIONS

She claimed that his son was not the only victim in this case and that Anthony’ family was also grieving.

Jeff Metcalf standing with his son Austin Metcalf outdoors

Jeff Metcalf stands with his son Austin Metcalf, a junior at Memorial High School in Frisco, who was stabbed in the chest at a track meet, allegedly by 17-year-old Karmelo Anthony from Frisco Centennial High School. (Courtesy Jeff Metcalf)

«Austin is dead. Your family is devastated,» Patton wrote. «That matters. Karmelo Anthony is alive but caged inside a racial imagination that had already convicted him. And that matters, too. Two families are shattered. And a whole country is using the tragedy to rehearse the same old script about Black guilt and white innocence.»

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In a statement to Fox News Digital, Patton defended her opinion piece as a «critique of racial power» and said that she was not, «blaming a dead child, attacking a grieving father, excusing violence, and rejecting the legal system.»

«My argument is simple: Black children are children,» Patton said. «They do not become monsters because white America needs one, and their humanity is not up for debate because a verdict has been rendered.»

«Now, run along and feed your propaganda machine,» she added, declining to answer several of Fox News Digital’s questions. «I’m sure it’s hungry for another Black woman’s words to mutilate. That is my statement.»

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Fox News Digital reached out to Howard University and Metcalf’s family for comment.

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Patton’s Substack piece is the latest in a growing chorus of voices arguing that the murder case is rooted in race.

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Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, questioned on her podcast whether Karmelo Anthony’s race played a role in his conviction. Crockett asked whether Anthony received a fair trial, spreading a false claim that all jurors were white and that could have impacted their ability to be impartial.

«I’m not necessarily convinced — not that I could tell you the name of one person on this jury — that we had 12 impartial white folk out of Collin County sitting on a jury for this young black man,» Crockett said.

Crocket also suggested black mothers have faced far greater agony on a day-to-day basis than the victim’s family.

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«Black women, especially black women who have black male children, live in fear and agony every single day,» she lamented. «A fear and agony that I promise you the Metcalfs probably had never spend a day living that way.»

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Quién era el Niño Guerrero, el líder del grupo criminal venezolano Tren de Aragua que murió en un operativo militar de EE.UU.

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Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, conocido como el Niño Guerrero, fue durante más de una década el rostro temido del Tren de Aragua, la banda criminal venezolana que sembró terror en América latina y extendió sus tentáculos hasta Estados Unidos y Europa.

Este viernes, su historia terminó de manera abrupta: el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump confirmó que fuerzas del Comando Sur lo mataron en una operación “rápida y letal” en territorio venezolano.

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Según detalló Trump, el operativo contó con la colaboración de “amigos de Venezuela” y puso fin a la carrera del hombre que, desde 2025, figuraba en la lista de sancionados del Departamento del Tesoro de EE.UU . Para Washington, el Tren de Aragua ya no era solo una pandilla: lo consideraban una organización terrorista extranjera y una amenaza directa para la seguridad regional.

Así lo comunicó en una publicación en la red Truth Social, en la que también compartió un video de diez segundos. Las imágenes tomadas desde una vista aérea muestran la explosión de un edificio con el techo de color verde, donde habría estado el criminal.

Las imágenes del ataque al lider del cartel narco El Tren de Aragua. (Video: Truth Social).

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“Los terroristas del Tren de Aragua ya no tienen refugio seguro en Venezuela ni en ningún otro lugar y, bajo mi liderazgo, encontraremos a estos despiadados asesinos y narcotraficantes en cualquier momento y lugar, los enviaremos al infierno, donde pertenecen”, escribió Trump.

Venezuela confirmó poco después que Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores había sido “neutralizado” y que hubo “enfrentamientos” con integrantes de “estructuras de delincuencia organizada”.

De la cárcel de Tocorón al dominio criminal internacional

El Niño Guerrero forjó su imperio criminal desde el Centro Penitenciario de Aragua, más conocido como la cárcel de Tocorón.

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Pero su vida allí distaba mucho de la de un preso común. Según investigaciones de la periodista Ronna Rísquez, el penal tenía piscina, zoológico, campo de béisbol, sala de apuestas, banco, puestos de comida y hasta una discoteca llamada “Tokio”, donde se presentaban artistas famosos.

"Niño Guerrero" era el líder del cartel narcoterrorista Tren de Aragua. (Foto: El País)

«Niño Guerrero» era el líder del cartel narcoterrorista Tren de Aragua. (Foto: El País)

Desde ese lugar, Guerrero Flores manejaba el Tren de Aragua con mano de hierro. Impuso el cobro de la “causa”, una cuota semanal que debían pagar los más de 5000 reclusos para sostener la infraestructura del penal y el nivel de vida de los líderes.

Se estima que ese sistema de extorsión generaba unos 3,5 millones de dólares al año. Quienes no pagaban sufrían castigos brutales: violencia, privación de alimentos o dormir a la intemperie.

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La impunidad era tal que, según Rísquez, el Niño Guerrero salía de la cárcel cuando quería, con la complicidad de las autoridades. Incluso, se lo vio navegando en yate por las playas venezolanas.

La cárcel tenía desde un boliche hasta una pileta. (Foto: X/@runrunesweb).

La cárcel tenía desde un boliche hasta una pileta. (Foto: X/@runrunesweb).

Según el centro de análisis Insight Crime, «Niño Guerrero“, que tendría 42 años, convirtió el grupo “en lo que es hoy durante su encarcelamiento en Tocorón”.

El salto a la “multinacional del crimen”

Bajo el mando de Guerrero Flores, el Tren de Aragua dejó de ser una banda local para convertirse en una organización criminal transnacional. La crisis migratoria venezolana fue la herramienta utilizada por la organización para extenderse por Sudamérica.

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En los últimos años llevó sus operaciones a Colombia, Perú, Chile, Brasil, México, España y Estados Unidos.

Sus delitos iban desde el narcotráfico y la trata de personas con fines de explotación sexual, hasta secuestros, homicidios, lavado de dinero con criptomonedas y tráfico de armas.

La Justicia estadounidense lo acusaba de actuar en coordinación con el Cártel de los Soles, una red de narcotráfico integrada, según Washington, por altos funcionarios venezolanos. En el Distrito Sur de Nueva York, lo señalaron como facilitador del envío de toneladas de cocaína a EE.UU.

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La fuga de Tocorón y la caída final

La aparente impunidad del Niño Guerrero quedó en evidencia en septiembre de 2023, cuando 11.000 efectivos venezolanos intervinieron la cárcel de Tocorón.

Sin embargo, el líder criminal escapó antes del operativo a través de una red de túneles de cinco kilómetros que desembocaba en el lago de Valencia. La fuga alimentó las sospechas de complicidad estatal.

Desde entonces, Guerrero Flores permanecía prófugo, con órdenes de captura en varios países y recompensas millonarias ofrecidas por gobiernos como el de Perú.

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El Departamento de Estado de EE.UU . ofrecía desde julio de 2024 hasta 5 millones de dólares por información que permitiera su captura.

En la Argentina, y sieguiendo la política de Trump, el gobierno de Javier Milei declaró al Tren de Aragua como organización terrorista en febrero de 2025. “La organización Tren de Aragua representa una amenaza seria y multifacética para la seguridad nacional”, argumentó el decreto firmado por el Presidente.

Venezuela, Narcotráfico, narcos

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Woman airlifted to hospital with serious injuries after shark attack at popular Sydney beach

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A 30-year-old woman was rushed to a hospital Saturday with serious injuries after being attacked by a shark at a Sydney beach, the latest in a string of recent shark attacks off Australia’s coast.

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Officials said emergency crews responded to Coogee Beach on Saturday morning following reports that a swimmer had been bitten.

The woman was airlifted to a hospital for treatment, police said in a statement.

«The woman was pulled from ⁠the water by members of the public who commenced ​first aid,» police said.

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AUSTRALIAN TEENAGER DIES IN DEVASTATING SHARK ATTACK, NEARLY 100 YARDS FROM POPULAR BEACH: REPORT

Police and emergency personnel at the scene after reports of a shark attack at Coogee Beach in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2026. (REUTERS/Hollie Adams)

Authorities said she suffered serious injuries to her arm and leg.

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Coogee Beach and two nearby beaches were closed following the attack.

The incident comes amid a recent series of fatal shark attacks across Australia.

SHARK ATTACK DEATHS SURGE ABOVE DECADE AVERAGE IN 2025

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A lifeguard and a NSW Police boat patrol Coogee Beach following a shark attack in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2026.

A lifeguard and a NSW Police boat patrol Coogee Beach following a shark attack in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2026. (REUTERS/Hollie Adams)

Last week, officials said a 35-year-old fisherman was killed by a suspected shark measuring nearly 15 feet long off the coast of Western Australia.

The man was spearfishing near Michaelmas Island, a protected sand cay near Albany.

On May 24, 39-year-old Michael Jensz was killed after suffering fatal injuries during a suspected bull shark attack while spearfishing along the Great Barrier Reef.

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‘LARGE SHARK’ KILLS MAN AT AUSTRALIAN BEACH, WITH WITNESS DESCRIBING HEARING SCREAMS OF ‘DON’T BITE ME!’

Lifeguards erect a sign that says

Lifeguards erect a sign that says «Beach Closed» following a shark attack at Coogee Beach in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2026 (REUTERS/Hollie Adams)

Just days earlier, on May 16, 38-year-old Steve Mattabonni was killed in a suspected great white shark attack near Rottnest Island, a popular tourist destination off Western Australia.

Earlier this year, a 12-year-old also died following a shark attack in Sydney Harbour.

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Dozens of beaches along Australia’s east coast were temporarily closed in January after four shark attacks were reported over a two-day period.

Officials said heavy rain had created murky water conditions that may have attracted sharks while reducing visibility.

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Police and emergency personnel at the scene after reports of a shark attack at Coogee Beach in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2026.

Police and emergency personnel at the scene after reports of a shark attack at Coogee Beach in Sydney, Australia, June 13, 2026. (REUTERS/Hollie Adams)

Australia averages about 20 shark attacks each year, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

Fox News Digital’s Brie Stimson and Reuters contributed to this report.



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