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Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices
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As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, a political clock is ticking at home.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil choke point largely shuttered since the conflict with Iran due to Iranian attacks — reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, pushing normalization of global energy markets closer to the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
«It’s then going to take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,» Smith said.
The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outlast the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions to global energy markets could linger long after any agreement is reached, leaving voters with months of elevated costs heading into the midterms.
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The economic effects are already visible.
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.
Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion throughout the past three months, or about $750 per household, through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.
To some, the conflict already has gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.
«There is a timeline and we’ve already passed it,» GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.
The White House rejected the notion that the conflict could become a long-term political liability, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.
«President Trump remains laser-focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,» White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. «The President and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts.»
Rogers said Trump «will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon» and argued that «when the President forces this conflict to a successful end, gas prices will drop back to multi-year lows and global energy markets will be much more stable in the long term.»
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
«We were promised that this would be a short operation, and repeatedly told it would all be over in 24–48 hours,» he went on. «This is no longer a blip.»
Others see a narrow window remaining.
«I think that it really needs to be resolved by July Fourth,» Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News Digital. «If it’s not resolved by July Fourth, I don’t think the economy is going to have time to really kind of get going on all levels.»
Feehery’s July 4 benchmark coincides with a period in which the White House hopes to shift public attention toward the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations.
The administration has alternated between signaling that a deal is near and warning that military action remains possible. More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become «very boring» and that he «couldn’t care less» if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would «be dropping like a rock» in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible.
But regardless of how the negotiations conclude, strategists argue that economic relief must arrive soon if Republicans hope to avoid carrying the conflict’s fallout into the midterms.
Republicans enter the midterms defending a narrow House majority that many analysts view as vulnerable to the traditional midterm backlash against a president’s party. The Senate landscape is more favorable to Republicans, though several races in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas are expected to be closely watched.
Feehery argued that the political impact of the conflict ultimately will have less to do with uranium stockpiles, enrichment levels or the details of any final agreement than with whether voters feel economically secure.
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%. (Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
«They don’t care about that,» Feehery said when asked about the substance of a potential deal. «From the voters’ minds, they’re not worried about far-flung issues. They’re worried about the economy at home.»
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«George H. W. Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and his approval ratings were around 91%, and he lost the next election,» Feehery said.
Even if a diplomatic breakthrough comes in the coming weeks, Americans may not see immediate relief at the pump.
Smith said the U.S. has been insulated from the worst supply disruptions because of its own domestic production, but the country is increasingly serving as an energy supplier to regions cut off from Middle Eastern flows.
More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become «very boring» and that he «couldn’t care less» if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would «be dropping like a rock» in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)
«We’re likely going to be seeing higher prices coming through in the U.S. because of that because, you know, we’re getting to a scarcity issue,» Smith said.
As Asian countries replace lost Middle Eastern crude and Europe seeks alternative sources of jet fuel, overseas buyers are increasingly competing for American energy exports, he said.
«Countries outside of the U.S. are bidding up U.S. prices,» Smith said.
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For Republicans, the concern is that the economic fallout could outlast the conflict itself.
«Even if this were all over tomorrow, prices won’t immediately come back to normal and if or when they do, voters don’t get a refund from the high bills they’ve already paid,» Heye said.
midterm elections, republicans, energy, economy, war with iran, donald trump
INTERNACIONAL
Honduras llama a fortalecer la cooperación regional para enfrentar migración y desafíos democráticos
La migración, la estabilidad democrática y la cooperación internacional siguen entre los principales retos del continente americano, según planteó el representante hondureño Javier Handal durante un foro regional. El funcionario pidió fortalecer la coordinación entre los Estados para responder a problemas que afectan a millones de personas en el hemisferio.
Durante su intervención, señaló que la movilidad humana sigue siendo uno de los fenómenos más complejos de la actualidad porque involucra factores económicos, sociales, ambientales y de seguridad que trascienden las fronteras nacionales. Agregó que Honduras vive esta realidad como país de origen, tránsito, destino y retorno de migrantes.
Explicó que esa condición permite comprender de manera directa los desafíos que enfrentan miles de personas que abandonan sus comunidades en busca de mejores oportunidades de vida y que las respuestas a la migración deben construirse desde una visión compartida entre los Estados y no con enfoques aislados o medidas centradas solo en las consecuencias inmediatas del fenómeno.
Handal afirmó que las causas estructurales que impulsan la migración siguen presentes en numerosos países de la región. Entre ellas mencionó las limitadas oportunidades económicas, la pobreza, la desigualdad, los efectos del cambio climático, la inseguridad y otros factores que obligan a miles de familias a abandonar sus lugares de origen.
Planteó que es necesario fortalecer las políticas orientadas a la generación de empleo, la atracción de inversiones y el desarrollo de proyectos productivos para crear condiciones que permitan a las personas construir su futuro en sus propios países.
También remarcó la importancia de reforzar la cooperación entre las autoridades para combatir la trata de personas y el tráfico ilícito de migrantes. Sobre los retornados, subrayó la necesidad de implementar programas que faciliten su reintegración social y económica, con acceso a oportunidades laborales, educación, capacitación y apoyo institucional.
Handal manifestó que la incertidumbre que enfrenta la comunidad internacional exige respuestas basadas en la cooperación y el entendimiento entre las naciones. A su juicio, el aislamiento y la fragmentación no constituyen alternativas frente a desafíos de impacto global.
En esa línea, defendió el multilateralismo como herramienta para construir consensos y encontrar soluciones a problemas compartidos. Sostuvo que los organismos internacionales y los espacios de diálogo regional siguen desempeñando un papel para promover la estabilidad, la paz y el desarrollo sostenible.
Además, afirmó que el respeto al derecho internacional debe mantenerse como uno de los pilares de la convivencia entre los Estados, en momentos en que diversas regiones enfrentan tensiones políticas, económicas y sociales.
En el plano democrático, señaló que la comunidad hemisférica debe mantener vigilancia sobre situaciones que puedan poner en riesgo los principios democráticos, la institucionalidad y el respeto a los derechos fundamentales.
En ese marco, reiteró la posición de Honduras sobre la situación que atraviesa Venezuela. Señaló que es necesario avanzar hacia una solución pacífica, democrática y consensuada que contribuya a fortalecer la confianza ciudadana y permita el desarrollo de procesos institucionales con garantías suficientes para todos los sectores.
De acuerdo con Handal, la estabilidad política es un elemento esencial para impulsar el crecimiento económico y el bienestar social. Por eso, consideró que la región debe seguir promoviendo espacios de diálogo que favorezcan la resolución pacífica de las diferencias y la construcción de acuerdos.
Sobre la agenda interna de Honduras, el funcionario dijo que la administración gubernamental mantiene como prioridad la atención de las necesidades de la población mediante políticas públicas orientadas a mejorar la calidad de vida de los ciudadanos.
Explicó que la estrategia impulsada por el Gobierno parte de una visión integral que busca fortalecer la seguridad como condición para generar estabilidad. Señaló que, a partir de esa estabilidad, se crean las condiciones para atraer inversión nacional y extranjera, promover la actividad económica y ampliar las oportunidades de empleo.
Según detalló, la generación de puestos de trabajo constituye uno de los principales mecanismos para reducir las brechas sociales y mejorar los niveles de bienestar de la población. Añadió que las acciones gubernamentales buscan consolidar un entorno favorable para el crecimiento económico y el desarrollo productivo.
Handal sostuvo que la confianza ciudadana depende de la capacidad de las instituciones para ofrecer resultados concretos y responder a las demandas de la población. Aseguró que los esfuerzos del Gobierno están orientados a fortalecer la seguridad, dinamizar la economía y ampliar las oportunidades para los sectores más vulnerables.
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Mamdani-backed socialist primary winner founded group whose goal is to ‘eradicate’ Western civilization
Socialists sweep NYC races as Republicans warn of Dem’s leftward shift
Fox News’ Bryan Llenas reports on Democratic socialists winning congressional primaries in New York advocating for radical policies. Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, warn against this leftward shift, labeling the candidates ‘Marxist.’ Voters approved platforms including Medicare-for-all and abolishing ICE, prompting concerns about the Democratic Party’s future.
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The socialist backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani who won Tuesday night’s primary election in New York’s 13th Congressional District founded a group in college that called for the total destruction of the West.
Darializa Avila Chevalier, 32, a Democratic nominee for U.S. Congress who made career out of «community organizing,» wrote in her biography for an opinion piece in independent news outlet The Electronic Intifada that she «helped launch the boycott, divestment and sanctions campaign Columbia University Apartheid Divest.»
«We are Westerners fighting for the total eradication of Western civilization,» the group said in a now-deleted 2024 Instagram post.
In May 2024, eight years after she graduated from Columbia, Chevalier was back on campus advocating alongside the group she founded, known as CUAD, wearing a keffiyeh and a t-shirt emblazoned with the group’s name.
Darializa Avila Chevalier, Democratic candidate for Congress in New York’s 13th Congressional District, speaks with a voter in the Morningside Heights neighborhood of Manhattan on June 14, 2026, in New York, N.Y. (Shuran Huang/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Avila Chevalier was interviewed by the Associated Press at the school’s infamous encampment against Israel that year, which was later broken up by police.
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Only months after that, CUAD, caused a firestorm when it reportedly posted its goal of eradicating Western Civilization.
«We stand in full solidarity with every movement for liberation in the Global South,» the post continued. «Our Intifada is an internationalist one — we are fighting for nothing less than the liberation of all people.»
«We reject every genocidal, eugenicist regime that seeks to undermine the personhood of the colonized,» the group added.
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Congressional candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier speaks during a Get Out the Vote rally at King’s Theater in New York City on June 18, 2026. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Mayor Zohran Mamdani campaigned alongside her and other candidates ahead of the Democratic primary and early voting. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Columbia University has roundly denounced CUAD, and says it is not affiliated in any way with the school.
Avila Chevalier was born in Florida to Dominican immigrants. She converted to Islam in recent years.
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The surfacing of her affiliation with the group has sparked intense online backlash, including from elected Democrats.
«Anti-Israel. Anti-America. Anti-Western Civilization. Why am I the only Democrat in the U.S. Senate that refuses to excuse this or defend any of those self-identified communists?» Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said on X Wednesday evening.
Darializa Avila Chevalier, Democratic candidate for Congress in New York’s 13th Congressional District, speaks with voter Maria Rodriguez in the Morningside Heights neighborhood of Manhattan on June 14, 2026. (Shuran Huang/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Avila Chevalier also infamously expressed anti-white women and anti-American sentiments in deleted social media posts, one time calling her home country «a f—ing disgrace.»
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«I forgot to get napkins so I just wiped my hand on the American flag behind me,» she said in another deleted post.
«This lady founded an organization with a stated goal of Eradicating Western civilization, & a bunch of rich white progressives who know she means them, said ‘please do,’» X personality Sean Fitzgerald said.
Congressional candidates Claire Valdez, left, Brad Lander, second from left, and Darializa Avila Chevalier, right, raise their hands with Mayor Zohran Mamdani during a Get Out the Vote rally in New York City on June 18, 2026. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
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«The real ‘country over party’ test isn’t going to be about Trump,» said RealClearInvestigations writer Mark Hemingway. «It’s going to be over communist Congress members who literally say they want to eradicate Western civilization.»
In a deeply blue district, Avila Chevalier is likely to waltz her way into Congress in November.
Fox News Digital reached out to Avila Chevalier’s campaign.
democrats elections, congress, zohran mamdani, islam, west, politics
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