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Republicans face ticking midterm clock as Iran fallout keeps pressure on gas prices
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As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, a political clock is ticking at home.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil choke point largely shuttered since the conflict with Iran due to Iranian attacks — reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, pushing normalization of global energy markets closer to the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
«It’s then going to take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,» Smith said.
The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outlast the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions to global energy markets could linger long after any agreement is reached, leaving voters with months of elevated costs heading into the midterms.
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The economic effects are already visible.
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.
Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion throughout the past three months, or about $750 per household, through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.
To some, the conflict already has gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.
«There is a timeline and we’ve already passed it,» GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.
The White House rejected the notion that the conflict could become a long-term political liability, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.
«President Trump remains laser-focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,» White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. «The President and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts.»
Rogers said Trump «will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon» and argued that «when the President forces this conflict to a successful end, gas prices will drop back to multi-year lows and global energy markets will be much more stable in the long term.»
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
«We were promised that this would be a short operation, and repeatedly told it would all be over in 24–48 hours,» he went on. «This is no longer a blip.»
Others see a narrow window remaining.
«I think that it really needs to be resolved by July Fourth,» Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News Digital. «If it’s not resolved by July Fourth, I don’t think the economy is going to have time to really kind of get going on all levels.»
Feehery’s July 4 benchmark coincides with a period in which the White House hopes to shift public attention toward the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations.
The administration has alternated between signaling that a deal is near and warning that military action remains possible. More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become «very boring» and that he «couldn’t care less» if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would «be dropping like a rock» in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible.
But regardless of how the negotiations conclude, strategists argue that economic relief must arrive soon if Republicans hope to avoid carrying the conflict’s fallout into the midterms.
Republicans enter the midterms defending a narrow House majority that many analysts view as vulnerable to the traditional midterm backlash against a president’s party. The Senate landscape is more favorable to Republicans, though several races in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas are expected to be closely watched.
Feehery argued that the political impact of the conflict ultimately will have less to do with uranium stockpiles, enrichment levels or the details of any final agreement than with whether voters feel economically secure.
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%. (Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
«They don’t care about that,» Feehery said when asked about the substance of a potential deal. «From the voters’ minds, they’re not worried about far-flung issues. They’re worried about the economy at home.»
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«George H. W. Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and his approval ratings were around 91%, and he lost the next election,» Feehery said.
Even if a diplomatic breakthrough comes in the coming weeks, Americans may not see immediate relief at the pump.
Smith said the U.S. has been insulated from the worst supply disruptions because of its own domestic production, but the country is increasingly serving as an energy supplier to regions cut off from Middle Eastern flows.
More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become «very boring» and that he «couldn’t care less» if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would «be dropping like a rock» in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)
«We’re likely going to be seeing higher prices coming through in the U.S. because of that because, you know, we’re getting to a scarcity issue,» Smith said.
As Asian countries replace lost Middle Eastern crude and Europe seeks alternative sources of jet fuel, overseas buyers are increasingly competing for American energy exports, he said.
«Countries outside of the U.S. are bidding up U.S. prices,» Smith said.
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For Republicans, the concern is that the economic fallout could outlast the conflict itself.
«Even if this were all over tomorrow, prices won’t immediately come back to normal and if or when they do, voters don’t get a refund from the high bills they’ve already paid,» Heye said.
midterm elections, republicans, energy, economy, war with iran, donald trump
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Dem senator bankrolling Platner’s campaign ripped for downplaying abuse allegations in bombshell report
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A sitting Democratic senator, who is one of Graham Platner’s top donors, is now drawing backlash for shrugging off the most recent allegations of misconduct that have followed the controversial Maine Senate candidate.
Platner has received $10,000 in the form of two $5,000 donations from Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse’s leadership PAC, according to Federal Election Commission records reviewed by Fox News Digital.
One donation from Whitehouse’s Ocean PAC came in March of this year. Another one was made last October. Notably, the most recent donation was made before former Governor Janet Mills, a second Democratic candidate for Senate, suspended her campaign at the end of April.
Although Whitehouse’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, the donations show the high degree of confidence lawmakers like Whitehouse have in Platner’s ability to unseat the moderate Republican incumbent, Susan Collins, R-Maine, currently holding office in a blue-leaning state.
WATCH: DEM SENATORS EXCUSE PLATNER’S CONDUCT AT CRISIS HUDDLE WITH EMBATTLED MAINE CANDIDATE
Maine Democratic candidate for Senate Graham Platner, left, pictured alongside Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., right. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images; Heather Diehl/Getty Images)
Whitehouse has been among Platner’s most constant supporters among lawmakers in the U.S. Senate, calling the controversial candidate «wonderfully appealing» in an interview with Politico.
«He’s off to a really strong start and has a wonderfully appealing local background and story,» Whitehouse said.
Whitehouse has remained supportive of Platner even as troubling details have emerged of Platner’s past web history, views and personal conduct. Most recently, reporting for The New York Times chronicled accounts from several of Platner’s former romantic interests, including allegations of rape fantasies, heavy drinking and violent episodes.
Despite the troubling allegations, Whitehouse told reporters he wasn’t alarmed by the reporting.
«Seems like a lot of nothing. I mean, the only one who had anything to say that seemed ‘unsettling’ was a woman who works for right-wing political operations,» Whitehouse reportedly told NOTUS after reading the article.
His reaction drew immediate backlash online.
«Whitehouse is the guy who grilled Brett Kavanaugh about ‘boofing.’ Just unreal,» Washington Free Beacon reporter Chuck Ross wrote in a post to X, recalling Whitehouse’s grilling of President Donald Trump’s 2018 Supreme Court Justice nominee over high-school slang in a search for possible improprieties.
SENATE CANDIDATE GRAHAM PLATNER SENT EXPLICIT TEXTS TO MULTIPLE WOMEN WHILE MARRIED, WIFE SAYS: REPORT
U.S. Senate candidate from Maine Graham Platner speaks during a campaign event on May 17, 2026, in Portland, Maine. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
«To the people just now learning that Sheldon Whitehouse is an amoral cretin, your ignorance to this point has been a choice,» GOP consultant Luke Thompson wrote on X.
«Is there a more contemptible man in the Senate than Sheldon Whitehouse?» TPUSA spokesperson Andrew Kolvet wrote on X.
«Sheldon Whitehouse, ringleader of the smearing of Kavanaugh, is a very bad person,» Capital Research investigative researcher Parker Thayer wrote on X.
«What an absolute dirt bag,» Republican operative Matt Whitlock wrote on X. «Dismissing a vivid account of physical abuse because it happened to a Republican operative is the most [Sheldon Whitehouse] thing I’ve ever heard.»
Amber Duke, the editor-in-chief of the DailyCaller, also blasted Whitehouse’s seemingly uneven application of scrutiny.
«What happened to this energy, Sen?» Duke said, highlighting a tweet Whitehouse had put out during Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing.
«Today I stand with women who are brave enough to come forward with their stories of abuse and mistreatment. They deserve to be heard and credible allegations must be investigated. We must believe survivors, not bully them,» Whitehouse had written at the time.
«Sheldon Whitehouse is the same guy who accused Brett Kavanaugh of being a rapist because he wrote ‘boofing’ in his yearbook,» conservative writer Bonchie wrote on X.
Apart from the Thursday report, Platner has received backlash for making off-color remarks on sexual abuse, race and terror, for a tattoo associated with Nazi imagery, and, most recently, for potentially interacting with several women outside his marriage in inappropriate ways.
Platner has also called himself a «communist» in previous posts online.
Among other resurfaced comments, Platner once blamed rape victims for failing to protect themselves in a now-deleted Reddit post.
«How about people just take some responsibility for themselves and not so f—ed up when they wind up having sex with someone they don’t mean to?» Platner wrote in 2013.
Whitehouse has his own controversial past, including details about his family having a membership at the exclusive Bailey’s Beach Club, formerly known as Spouting Rock Beach Association, which is rumored to have an all-White clientele.
«I think the people who are running the place are still working on that, and I’m sorry it hasn’t happened yet,» Whitehouse said in 2017, referring to allowing minority members. «It’s a long tradition in Rhode Island, and there are many of them. And we just need to work our way through the issues.»
SENATE DEM CANDIDATE WHO WROTE HE ‘BECAME A COMMUNIST’ NOW SAYS HE WAS JOKING
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse speaks with journalists at the Blue Zone during the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belem, Para State, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2025. (Pablo Porciuncula/AFP)
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Platner, who looks poised to take the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, met with senators earlier this week, reassuring them about his prospective candidacy.
Maine will hold its Senate primaries next Tuesday.
lindsey graham, tom steyer, fund raising, senate elections, democrats senate
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José Daniel Ferrer: “Cuba vuelve a estar en el centro de una peligrosa tormenta geopolítica”
José Daniel Ferrer, coordinador de la Unión Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU), advirtió en una carta enviada a Infobae que la isla atraviesa lo que denominó una “Crisis de Octubre 2.0”, una combinación de colapso interno del régimen y penetración estratégica de Rusia y China, comparable en gravedad —aunque distinta en forma— a la crisis de los misiles de 1962.
“Cuba vuelve a estar en el centro de una peligrosa tormenta geopolítica”, manifestó Ferrer; al tiempo que analizó: “No por fortaleza propia, sino por la combinación explosiva de una dictadura en crisis terminal, una población exhausta, represión cada vez más brutal y una creciente confrontación entre el régimen castrocomunista y Estados Unidos”.
El líder opositor describió la situación interna de la isla como “la peor crisis de su historia”: miseria extrema, hambruna, apagones interminables, crisis sanitaria, transporte paralizado, míseros salarios y desesperanza social, contenidos por la Policía Política mediante “cárcel, violencia, torturas, amenazas y terror”.
Ferrer señaló que Washington elevó el tono de sus acciones contra el régimen. Citó la orden ejecutiva del presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, que califica a la dictadura cubana como “una amenaza inusual y extraordinaria para la seguridad nacional norteamericana”, a la que se suman nuevas sanciones económicas, advertencias a empresas extranjeras, presión sobre suministros de combustible e investigaciones en curso.
También mencionó la acusación contra Raúl Castro por siete cargos criminales, incluidos cuatro asesinatos vinculados al derribo de dos avionetas de la organización humanitaria Hermanos al Rescate, un escenario que, según Ferrer, el viejo poder castrista “durante décadas creyó imposible: tener que responder ante la justicia estadounidense”.
A ese panorama se suma el cambio en el equilibrio regional. “La caída de Nicolás Maduro en Venezuela el 3 de enero cambió también la ecuación“, escribió. “Durante años, Caracas fue el gran salvavidas económico, petrolero y político del castrismo. Sin Venezuela, Cuba queda mucho más expuesta“, subrayó.
El coordinador de la UNPACU apuntó que, ante ese vacío, Moscú y Pekín emergen como los nuevos sostenes del régimen. Sobre Rusia, afirmó que sus señales de apoyo energético, financiero y político “no son gestos de solidaridad humanitaria, son movimientos estratégicos”.
“Rusia no quiere perder la última gran pieza simbólica de la Guerra Fría en América“, expresó Ferrer; al tiempo que acotó: “Ante el fracaso estratégico de Putin en su guerra contra Ucrania, ve en Cuba una importante carta de triunfo».
Sobre China, el análisis del disidente fue igualmente directo: Pekín no mira a Cuba “con nostalgia ideológica, sino con cálculo imperial”. Para el gigante asiático, la isla representa “una plataforma excepcional: situada a solo 90 millas de Estados Unidos, en medio del Caribe, con un régimen necesitado, dependiente y dispuesto a entregar soberanía a cambio de supervivencia”.
Ferrer agregó que China “quiere a Taiwan y Cuba bajo su influencia. Es un recurso muy útil para negociar con Estados Unidos”.
El opositor alertó sobre la existencia de “reportes de inteligencia sobre instalaciones de espionaje vinculadas a China y Rusia en territorio cubano” y advirtió que en el siglo XXI no hacen falta misiles nucleares visibles para crear una amenaza grave. “Bastan estaciones de escucha, radares, capacidades cibernéticas, inteligencia electrónica, presencia naval, cooperación militar y control de infraestructuras estratégicas”, remarcó. Y agregó: “Un régimen desesperado puede venderlo todo: puertos, telecomunicaciones, bases, información, territorio y soberanía nacional”.
Para trazar el paralelo histórico, Ferrer recurrió a la «Crisis de Octubre de 1962″. Recordó que, tras el fracaso de Bahía de Cochinos y de la Operación Mangosta, la Unión Soviética instaló misiles nucleares en Cuba, y que Nikita Jrushchov pretendía “alterar el equilibrio estratégico mundial usando la isla como punta de lanza contra Estados Unidos”. La cuarentena naval impuesta por John F. Kennedy llevó al mundo “al borde de una guerra nuclear”. Pero el desenlace de aquella crisis tuvo, según Ferrer, “una consecuencia trágica para el pueblo cubano”. Las negociaciones entre Kennedy y Jrushchov garantizaron la continuidad del régimen de Fidel Castro, quien aprovechó esa protección para consolidarse y “exportar subversión” en América Latina y África.
Ferrer advirtió que el riesgo actual es que “la historia se repita con nuevas formas”. Describió las intenciones del régimen cubano de forma taxativa: “No quiere reformas reales; quiere negociar impunidad. No quiere liberar la economía, quiere preservar el control militar sobre las riquezas nacionales. No quiere soberanía, quiere protección extranjera para seguir oprimiendo a los cubanos”.
Para el coordinador de la UNPACU, la única salida duradera pasa por el fin de la dictadura: “Cuba libre dejaría de ser una plataforma enemiga a 90 millas de Florida y sería un aliado natural de las democracias americanas”, sostuvo. Ferrer instó a Estados Unidos a actuar “con rapidez, firmeza y claridad estratégica” e impedir que Rusia, China o cualquier otro aliado de la tiranía cubana “le den oxígeno, la fortalezcan”.
La carta cerró con una advertencia directa sobre la lección de 1962: “Salvar la paz mundial no debió significar perpetuar la esclavitud de una nación”. Ferrer reclamó que la crisis actual “no debe terminar con otro pacto que deje al pueblo cubano abandonado a merced de sus verdugos”, y sostuvo que, esta vez, “la seguridad de Estados Unidos y la libertad de Cuba coinciden plenamente. Esa oportunidad histórica no debe arriesgarse”.
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