The Trump administration’s decision to indict former Cuban leader Raúl Castro is fueling comparisons to the pressure campaign President Donald Trump previously used against Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro as the White House ramps up economic pressure, direct appeals to Cubans and military visibility in the Caribbean.

The indictment, tied to Cuba’s 1996 attack on two civilian aircraft that killed three U.S. citizens, has raised questions about whether the administration is testing a Venezuela-style pressure strategy against Havana’s communist regime.

The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group has been operating in the Caribbean under U.S. Southern Command authorities, providing a visible military backdrop to the administration’s increasingly confrontational posture toward Havana. Publicly announced assets include fighter aircraft, electronic warfare aircraft and guided-missile destroyers.

The broader posture has drawn comparisons to the administration’s earlier campaign against Maduro, which similarly began with criminal charges against a longtime anti-American strongman before expanding into a wider regime-pressure effort involving sanctions, diplomatic isolation and heightened U.S. military activity in the Caribbean.

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Federal prosecutors charged Castro and several former Cuban officials Wednesday in the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue civilian aircraft that killed four men, including three U.S. citizens. Castro was Cuba’s defense minister at the time of the attack. 

U.S. prosecutors allege Castro helped authorize the operation after the civilian planes repeatedly entered Cuban airspace while conducting missions linked to the Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue organization, which searched for Cuban migrants at sea and opposed the communist government in Havana.

Cuban fighter jets ultimately shot down two unarmed aircraft over international waters in 1996, according to the indictment, triggering international condemnation and one of the most severe crises in U.S.-Cuba relations since the Cold War. 

«At the very least, it means symbolically that he is now set up just as Nicolás Maduro was,» Christine Balling, a Cuba expert at the Institute of World Politics and former advisor to U.S. Special Operations Command South, told Fox News Digital.

Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro during a meeting at the National Assembly in Caracas, Aug. 22, 2025.  (Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)

CIA Director John Ratcliffe meets with officials in Havana, Cuba, May 14, 2026, to discuss intelligence matters. (CIA)

During Trump’s earlier pressure campaign against Maduro, the U.S. indicted the Venezuelan leader on narco-terrorism charges, tightened sanctions on the country’s oil sector, backed opposition efforts to remove him and increased military operations in the Caribbean.

The campaign culminated in a U.S.-backed operation that removed Maduro from effective power and reopened channels of American influence inside Venezuela through energy negotiations and cooperation involving senior figures, including Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.

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«I don’t think that we are necessarily going to conduct the same operation,» Balling said. «Raúl Castro is 94 years old. It might not be worth the trouble.»

Still, Balling argued, the indictment sends «a very straightforward message that we are 100% behind the fall of the Castro regime.»

The White House could not immediately be reached for comment. 

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced that message this week with a direct appeal to the Cuban people, accusing the communist government of blaming the island’s collapse on the U.S. «blockade» while enriching military-linked elites who dominate the Cuban economy. Rubio also highlighted the success of Cubans living abroad, arguing the Cuban people — not the regime — were capable of prosperity.

Balling described Rubio’s remarks as a deliberate attempt to undermine Havana’s domestic propaganda and convince Cubans that the regime, rather than the United States, bears primary responsibility for the island’s economic collapse.

«Rubio wants them to understand that the regime is acting against their own interests,» she said.

Trump further fueled speculation this week when asked whether tensions with Cuba would escalate following the Castro indictment.

«There won’t be escalation,» Trump said. «We won’t have to.»

Some analysts interpreted Trump’s comments — combined with Rubio’s direct appeals to ordinary Cubans — as a sign the administration may believe internal pressure against the regime could eventually accomplish what direct military escalation would not.

«It’s sowing the seeds of a counter-revolutionary feeling,» Balling said.

But Balling warned that any serious destabilization of Cuba could trigger consequences far beyond the island itself, particularly a potential mass migration crisis just 90 miles from Florida.

«If we go so far as to engage militarily, we are probably looking at thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of refugees,» she said.

Cuba has already been suffering through rolling blackouts, fuel shortages and a worsening economic crisis as the administration increases pressure on the island’s energy lifelines.

Despite the increasingly confrontational rhetoric, Washington has also kept open limited channels of communication with Havana.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled publicly to Cuba on May 14 for talks with senior Cuban security officials, delivering what U.S. officials described as a warning that Cuba could no longer serve as a «safe haven for adversaries» while also offering the prospect of deeper economic and security engagement if Havana makes «fundamental changes.» 

The visit came as the Trump administration pressed a $100 million humanitarian aid proposal aimed at addressing Cuba’s worsening blackout and fuel crisis. Cuban officials signaled they were open to accepting assistance distributed through independent humanitarian and religious organizations rather than directly through the government.

Analysts say Cuba’s armed forces are far weaker than during the Cold War, when the island fielded one of Latin America’s largest militaries with Soviet backing. Today, experts describe the Cuban military as severely degraded by decades of economic collapse, fuel shortages and aging equipment.

«Cuba had a First World military in a Third World country,» Frank Mora, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Western Hemisphere under President Barack Obama, told The Wall Street Journal this week. «It’s a shell of a shell of what it used to be.»

Still, analysts caution that Cuba’s weakness does not necessarily make the island easy to pressure or destabilize.

Unlike Venezuela, where the U.S. has at times maintained limited economic engagement despite sanctions on Maduro’s government, Cuba’s military-linked conglomerate GAESA controls large portions of the island’s economy, including tourism, retail and infrastructure.

Balling argued that the deep integration between the regime and the broader Cuban state could complicate any attempt to isolate Havana’s leadership without further destabilizing the country itself.

The administration also has increasingly framed Cuba as a broader national security concern beyond the island’s deteriorating conventional military capabilities. Rubio this week accused Havana of hosting Chinese and Russian intelligence infrastructure.

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For now, administration officials have stopped short of outlining any military plans for Cuba. 

But the combination of criminal charges, economic pressure, information campaigns and visible U.S. military assets in the region has convinced many Cuba watchers that the White House is exploring whether the Maduro pressure model can be adapted just 90 miles from American shores.

Enfrentamientos

Una topadora trata de levantar un bloqueo en una ruta de Bolivia. Foto: EFE

Reuniones

FIRST ON FOX: A Texas congressional race already marred by scandal is facing new controversy after veterans condemned political ads sent ahead of Memorial Day weekend that mock a President Donald Trump-backed veteran over his military disability.

With days left in a bitter Republican primary runoff election between John Lujan and Carlos De La Cruz in Texas’ 35th Congressional District, a mail ad sent this week by the Lujan-aligned political action committee Protect and Serve knocked De La Cruz over his disability status, referring to him as «the ‘100% disabled’ kickboxer.»

The ad rips into De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran who was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, suggesting he «claims a 100% disability to avoid paying any property taxes.» The ad goes on to say that though the «VA defines 100% disabled as for veterans whose ‘conditions are so severe that they result in total impairment,’» De La Cruz «was physically fit enough to train in and operate a kickboxing gym and lists himself as a volunteer carpenter.»

Charlotte Neiner, an Air Force veteran and Wounded Warrior Project member, told Fox News Digital that as a disabled veteran herself, «This is the most shameful thing I have ever pulled out of my mailbox.»

She emphasized that «to do this days before Memorial Day is a disgrace.»

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«Career politician John Lujan’s team is doing his dirty work, attacking a fellow veteran’s wounds,» she posited, adding, «He never wore the uniform a single day. He has no idea what these injuries cost, and he never will.»

In Neiner’s opinion, «a man with this little honor has no business anywhere near Congress.»

She said that after this episode, Lujan «will not get my vote, he will not get the vote of a single veteran I know, and I will personally make sure every veteran in this district knows exactly what he did.»

Neiner added, «I am proudly voting for Carlos De La Cruz, and John Lujan should be ashamed of himself.»

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A pedestrian passes the main gate at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio on Feb. 5, 2020. (Eric Gay/AP)

The Lujan campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Under Texas law, veterans deemed 100% disabled or individually unemployable by the Department of Veterans Affairs can receive a total exemption from property taxes on their primary residence homestead. More than 164,000 Texas veterans with 100% disability ratings are estimated to receive the state’s full homestead property-tax exemption, according to Texas disabled-veteran property tax advocates citing 2024 VA data.

De La Cruz owned and operated a kickboxing gym in the San Antonio area.

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Maureen Galindo speaks at a League of Women Voters meeting in Texas. (Katina Zentz/Getty Images)

Lujan and De La Cruz are set to face off again on Tuesday after neither candidate was able to reach the required 50 percent vote threshold to earn the GOP nomination. In their first matchup, Lujan had an edge, finishing with roughly 32 percent of the vote and De La Cruz placing second with roughly 27 percent.

Both candidates have garnered top-name endorsements, with De La Cruz being backed by Trump and Lujan being backed by Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

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This comes as the Democratic primary in the same district has been equally controversial. Democrat Maureen Galindo stirred up national outrage by vowing in a social media post to imprison and castrate «American Zionists.»

Fox News Digital also reached out to Protect and Serve PAC for comment.