There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year’s contest.

The first is the president’s approval rating, which is lower now than it was during President Donald Trump’s first term in 2018 or President Joe Biden’s term in 2022.

The second is Democrats’ generic ballot lead, which is wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 «blue wave» election and much larger than the edge the GOP had in 2022.

Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year.

REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.

Then there’s a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in play right up until the finish line.

In Trump’s first term, the Republicans ended up gaining two Senate seats despite a gloomy national environment. Four years ago, with inflation surging, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their tally.

12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK

The Democrats have plentiful paths to 51 seats on election night. Republicans keep plowing money into six toss-up states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven’t much moved the needle.

Yet the GOP’s paths to 50 are getting wider. That, plus a major update to the House forecast, in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings.

The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year. Now, as another 20 races shift leftward, this forecast sees the Democrats taking control.

THE BLUE WAVE LOOKS REAL UNTIL YOU LOOK A LITTLE CLOSER

Democrats have an advantage in at least 219 seats, while Republicans should hold on to at least 198 seats. There are 18 toss-ups on the board.

On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position. That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections.

POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

(A «great night» for the Democrats, which would see the party take some Lean R seats as well, would mean a Democratic majority of up to 249.)

If the toss-up seats go the other way, the GOP could make life hard for the left. A good night for Republicans would see the party end up with around 216 seats. That’s two short of a majority but also leaves the Democrats with a mere two-vote cushion in the House.

In that scenario, a coalition of far-left Democrats, like the «Squad» of years past, could band together to put policy pressure on the next House speaker. That group is about to get bigger, thanks to the sure-thing victories of Democratic Socialists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.

Some of this week’s shifts are a product of polling. The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has pushed districts like Kentucky’s 6th District (Lexington and its suburbs) and Texas’ 15th District (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) away from the GOP.

The party’s strength in statewide races also plays a role, especially in Iowa (the 1st and 3rd districts, which contain the state’s biggest cities), and in Pennsylvania (three districts have shifted to the left, thanks in part to Governor Josh Shapiro’s coattails).

Other shifts are the result of Republican groups moving resources elsewhere, like from New York’s 19th District. Democratic Rep. Josh Riley lost this race by fewer than 5,000 votes four years ago, but as the GOP sends its money to more winnable races, it’s moving to Solid D.

A more surprising theme is also emerging: the GOP is in trouble with rural voters.

Sitting above Albany, New York’s 21st District contains some of the state’s most rural areas. Its voters delivered President Trump a 21-point victory over Vice President Harris two years ago. A survey last week had the Democratic candidate four points ahead of the Republican, 46%-42%.

DEMOCRATS SEE NEW CHANCES TO FLIP RED STATES — BUT A $400M GOP SPENDING ADVANTAGE COULD DERAIL THEIR PLANS

Maine’s 2nd District, which famously voted for President Trump three times in a row – and last time by nine points – is an open race this year after Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement. It was thought to be one of the best flip opportunities for the GOP. A new poll has the Democrat at 51% and the Republican at 45%.

Even Virginia’s 5th District, stretching across the Southside region and home to a two-thirds rural population, is a six-point race in a recent survey (45%-51% with the Republican ahead). The Democrat, Tom Perriello, was recently endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Gas, diesel and grocery prices are to blame. In dollar terms, the cost of living is higher in cities and suburbs, but voters across the country keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.

Iowa, for example, has experienced the fourth-highest gas price hike in the nation. Kentucky, Ohio and Texas are all in the top five states for diesel increases. That has proven tough for GOP candidates to counter.

New York’s 21st District moves from Solid R to Likely R. (Virginia’s 5th and Maine’s 2nd districts remain at Lean R and Toss-up, respectively.)

The Senate is still a toss-up with Democrats and Republicans taking 47 seats apiece. Six toss-ups are the most likely to determine control.

If Democrats win all six of those states, the party will take the majority with two seats to spare, for a total of 53. On the other hand, this forecast still sees a pathway for the GOP not to lose any seats. They’d accomplish that just by holding on to the same six states.

The toss-ups have largely been locked in through summer. There’s been a lot more movement in the «lean» categories (Kansas in, Georgia and North Carolina out). Collectively, you can think of these as the election night battlegrounds.

This week, a ninth state joins the list: Minnesota.

The North Star State has been on the political radar since Republicans recruited Michele Tafoya, the former NFL sideline reporter. She has deftly navigated her foray into politics by focusing on fraud, crime, and the cultural issues that animate GOP voters.

She also has a favorable matchup against Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s sitting lieutenant governor. It’s not clear whether Flanagan’s progressive politics or her proximity to the fraud issue is giving voters pause. Whatever the cause, there are signs that they are.

A new gold-standard survey shows 47% of likely voters support Flanagan, while 43% back Tafoya. Another 9% are undecided.

Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9-in-10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38% back Tafoya, 32% support Flanagan, and 29% haven’t decided.

Minnesota’s voter profile and election history suggest that there are some left-of-center voters in the «independent» column. They may be wavering on Flanagan now, then show up to vote for her on election day.

The Senate hopeful’s spot on the ballot next to Amy Klobuchar, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate and electoral over-performer, may also help push her over the line.

Either way, that poll can’t be ignored. Minnesota moves from Likely D to Lean D.

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Pope Leo XIV arrived at Agostino Gemelli University Hospital in Rome for a procedure to remove a small node on his lung on Tuesday.

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The 71-year-old pontiff said Monday that doctors discovered the nodule at a «very early stage» and recommended its removal. The surgery is not expected to last long, and the pope is expected to remain hospitalized for approximately one week, according to Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni.

«Doctors found a small lump in the lung,» Leo said after an Angelus address at St. Peter’s Square on Monday. «It was identified at a very early stage and well situated.»

POPE LEO ANNOUNCES TUMOR ON LUNG, SURGERY PLANNED IN ‘NEXT FEW DAYS’

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Pope Leo XIV is welcomed by Health Director Andrea Cambieri as he arrives at the Gemelli University Hospital for an operation to remove a lump from his lung in Rome on October 13, 2026. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI/AFP via Getty Images)

«The doctors consider it appropriate to intervene and so, following their advice, I decided to have surgery to remove it,» he continued. «The surgery is already scheduled for the next few days. I thank you for your spiritual closeness and I rely on your prayer.»

The surgery is likely to take place within a few days at the Gemelli Hospital in Rome, which is known as the «Pope’s» hospital, Vatican sources told Fox News.

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POPE LEO XIV BEGINS HISTORIC 4-DAY VISIT TO FRANCE

The Vatican has not disclosed whether the nodule is cancerous, and no further details about the pope’s diagnosis or the planned procedure were immediately available.

Pope Leo XIV steps out as the first American pope in history at the Vatican on Thursday, May 8, 2025. (Vatican Media)

The announcement comes as a surprise for the American-born pontiff, who has no previously known health problems and is known for maintaining an active lifestyle.

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POPE LEO VISITS SITE OF MIRACLE CURES, MEETS PEOPLE WHOSE UNEXPLAINED HEALINGS STUNNED DOCTORS

Leo regularly plays tennis and swims at the papal summer retreat in Castel Gandolfo, according to The Associated Press.

The pope is also scheduled to embark on a major international trip from Nov. 6–17, with planned stops in Uruguay, Argentina and Peru. It remains unclear whether his surgery and recovery will affect those travel plans.

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UKRAINE’S ATTACKS ON RUSSIA ARE PUSHING PUTIN CLOSER TO NEGOTIATING TABLE, TRUMP NATO AMBASSADOR SAYS

Pope Leo XIV delivers the Angelus prayer in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

In addition to addressing his health, Leo used his Sunday remarks to renew his appeal for peace in war-torn Ukraine, warning that the conflict continues to inflict suffering far beyond the country’s borders.

«The war in the martyred Ukraine continues to create suffering, even beyond its borders, especially in the poorest countries, where many people depend on the exports of cereals and grains,» the pope said.

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Fox News’ Courtney Walsh and Stephen Sorace contributed to this report.

Anders Hagstrom is a reporter with Fox News Digital covering national politics and major breaking news events. 

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President Donald Trump is «looking at» firing U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle after mounting reports alleging improper conduct before and during her tenure in Athens.

«Well, we’re looking at it,» Trump told reporters at the White House before leaving for an Ohio campaign rally Monday afternoon. «Yeah, we’re not happy.»

Trump’s comments came after a senior U.S. official said Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were «extremely pissed off» by reports about Guilfoyle’s conduct and expected to make a decision on her future this week.

TRUMP AND RUBIO WEIGH FIRING KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE AS MISCONDUCT AND DONOR BAILOUT ALLEGATIONS MOUNT

The Wall Street Journal has reported a series of allegations involving Guilfoyle, including that she asked a Trump donor to pay a $100,000 credit card bill before her confirmation hearing while allegedly promising access to administration officials. The Journal also reported claims that Guilfoyle made a threat involving the Greek government, promoted the interests of a Greek construction and energy company, allowed a lobbyist into private diplomatic meetings and accepted improper gifts or services.

Rubio, who was in Greece last week, was frustrated by reporters repeatedly asking him to address the allegations publicly.

RUBIO SOUNDS CAMPAIGN-READY AS HE RAILS AGAINST OPEN BORDERS, GLOBALISM IN SPEECH FROM ANCIENT GREEK RUINS

«You guys walk around thinking that because some source told you something, and you reported it, it’s the gospel,» Rubio told reporters Thursday at the foot of his plane as Guilfoyle, who was there to see him depart Greece, looked on.

«It’s not the gospel. It’s not the gospel for me. That’s not the way we do things.»

BIDEN-ERA DIRECTIVE FOR DIPLOMATS TO PEDDLE DEI ON FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS SCRAPPED BY STATE DEPARTMENT

A day earlier, Rubio said he would not discuss the allegations while visiting a foreign country, but defended the embassy’s work.

«Suffice it to say our embassy here is doing a great job,» Rubio said at a joint news conference with the Greek foreign minister. «Our ambassador has been a strong ambassador here.»

TRUMP JR UNDER SCRUTINY FROM OWN PARTY OVER PUTIN-LINKED OLIGARCH’S LAVISH GIFT

Vice President JD Vance also weighed in last week, saying he did not know the full details of the specific case but rejected the idea of selling access to government officials.

«Of course, I don’t like anybody selling access to another government official, certainly a high-level government official,» Vance told reporters. «I assume you’re talking about a specific case, and I can’t say with confidence that the case you’re talking about is actually reflective of the way you’re describing it.»

HOUSE DEMS PLOT TRUMP INVESTIGATION BLITZ IF THEY SEIZE MAJORITY

Guilfoyle has denied wrongdoing through her lawyers. In a statement released late Sunday, attorneys David Schwartz and Jesse Binnall said the money she sought from the Trump donor was payment for public appearances and speaking engagements that predated her nomination.

«Ambassador Guilfoyle has served, and will continue to serve, with integrity, honor and distinction,» the lawyers said. «We are evaluating all available legal remedies to collect this debt and any other potential causes of action.»

The attorneys also denied impropriety related to Guilfoyle’s travel on private planes, saying she «sought, obtained and followed State Department guidance and followed the department’s travel regulations.»

BIDEN-ERA FBI TRACKED TRUMP FAMILY TRAVEL AND WILES’ CALLS WITH LAWYERS IN SECRET PROBE: DOCS

A U.S. official told The Associated Press that the State Department’s inspector general is looking into the allegations, though it was not clear whether a formal investigation had been opened. The State Department declined to comment to the AP on a potential inspector general probe.

Top Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and House Oversight Committee have called for an investigation into Guilfoyle.

Guilfoyle is a former California prosecutor who was once married to Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom and was engaged to Donald Trump Jr.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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