Con los planes para las conversaciones de paz entre Estados Unidos e Irán descarrilados, al menos por ahora, Teherán y Washington se hunden en un incómodo limbo en el que ni hay paz ni hay guerra, cada uno con la esperanza de sobrevivir al otro en un enfrentamiento con drásticos riesgos para la economía mundial.

Según los analistas, los funcionarios iraníes parecen confiar en que podrán resistir las dificultades económicas derivadas de la guerra durante más tiempo que el presidente Donald Trump. Sin embargo, les sigue preocupando que, sin el impulso de las negociaciones, seguirán atrapados bajo la persistente amenaza de ataques estadounidenses o israelíes.

“Lo que está ocurriendo es algo parecido a lo que tuvimos al final de la guerra de los 12 días, que es poner fin a la guerra, pero sin ninguna permanencia”, dijo Sasan Karimi, vicepresidente del gobierno anterior de Irán y politólogo de la Universidad de Teherán, sobre la guerra entre Israel e Irán del pasado junio.

Durante el fin de semana, un artículo publicado por un destacado periódico conservador, Khorasan, y redistribuido por varios otros medios iraníes describió el momento actual como “un limbo estratégico” con riesgos considerables.

“Ambas partes se han alejado de los costos de una guerra a gran escala, pero no han ido más allá de la lógica de la fuerza y la presión”, decía. Esto “puede ser más peligroso que la propia guerra a corto plazo”.

Los titubeantes esfuerzos por reanudar las conversaciones de alto al fuego mediadas por Pakistán reflejan la dinámica existente desde que el bombardeo estadounidense-israelí de Irán terminó en un alto al fuego a principios de este mes. Ambas partes argumentaron haber salido victoriosas. Y Trump también parece creer que Estados Unidos puede resistir más que Irán las consecuencias económicas de la guerra y de los bloqueos paralelos del estrecho de Ormuz.

El resultado es que ninguna de las partes está dispuesta a ceder terreno que podría permitir avanzar en las conversaciones.

El sábado, Trump canceló el viaje de su enviado especial, Steve Witkoff, y de su yerno, Jared Kushner, a la capital paquistaní, Islamabad, para una segunda ronda de conversaciones sobre la tregua. Dijo que los iraníes harían perder el tiempo a los negociadores.

Los altos funcionarios iraníes mantienen que no se reunirán para negociar directamente hasta que Trump levante el bloqueo naval estadounidense que impuso a los puertos iraníes tras acordar el alto al fuego.

Sin embargo, el principal diplomático iraní, el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores Abbas Araghchi, se dirigió el sábado a reuniones en Omán tras su visita a Pakistán un día antes, aunque regresó a Pakistán el domingo. Está previsto que vuele a Rusia a finales de esta semana, según los medios de comunicación estatales iraníes, tras celebrar una segunda reunión con sus homólogos en Pakistán.

Además de Islamabad, que acogería una futura ronda de conversaciones, los iraníes consideran que la coordinación con Omán, el otro gobierno del golfo Pérsico cuyo país se encuentra junto al estratégico estrecho de Ormuz, es fundamental para llegar a un acuerdo.

Karimi, exfuncionario iraní, instó a los actuales dirigentes de Irán a que aprovecharan el momento para establecer un marco completo para un acuerdo con Estados Unidos, desde las concesiones iraníes hasta sus últimas exigencias, y una visión de un pacto de paz regional.

Pero en Irán, “el statu quo ahora es la forma más conservadora de comportarse políticamente”, advirtió, “porque cualquier cambio plantea la posibilidad de ser culpado en el futuro” si el plan fracasa.

Leé también: El Gobierno condenó a Irán por cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz: “Es una conducta ilegal”

Irán también sigue creyendo que, en términos económicos, “puede soportar más que Trump, al menos en un plazo de varias semanas, en las que, en realidad, las perturbaciones en el estrecho son más costosas para Trump que para los iraníes”, dijo Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, director ejecutivo de la Fundación Bourse & Bazaar, organización de investigación con sede en Londres.

Pero la economía iraní ya se enfrenta a una grave crisis. Los informes sobre despidos se extienden por todo el país, el cual se enfrenta a la escasez en la producción de productos petroquímicos y medicinas como consecuencia de la guerra.

El periódico económico más importante de Irán, Donya-e-Eghtesad, ha pronosticado que la inflación anual podría aumentar hasta el 49 por ciento “en el caso más optimista” de que se alcance un acuerdo. Un estado de “ni guerra ni paz”, advertía, podría elevar la inflación más cerca del 70 por ciento en los próximos meses, mientras que volver a la guerra podría causar una hiperinflación de más del 120 por ciento.

Sin embargo, algunos economistas estiman que los gobernantes autoritarios de Irán pueden sobrevivir a la actual crisis económica entre tres y seis meses.

Por el contrario, dijo Batmanghelidj, las interrupciones de la producción de petróleo y de exportaciones como los fertilizantes podrían empezar a causar sacudidas económicas más profundas en la economía mundial en cuestión de semanas, lo que podría persuadir a Trump de avanzar en las conversaciones.

Sin embargo, aunque Irán pueda superar económicamente el estancamiento actual, dijo, su dilema estratégico persiste.

“El modo de ni acuerdo ni guerra, desde el punto de vista iraní, los deja vulnerables”, afirmó.

*Sanam Mahoozi colaboró con reportería.

As Democrats and Republicans clash over escalating political rhetoric in the wake of Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting, Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., is urging leaders on both sides to «bring the temperature down.»

The call for cooler rhetoric comes after Cole Allen, 31, of Torrance, Calif., allegedly stormed the lobby of the Washington Hilton hotel during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner and opened fire.

«It’s an opportunity, in my opinion, for everyone to bring the temperature down,» Moskowitz told Fox News Digital. «If we do the finger pointing, then the temperature’s never going to come down…We’re like high schoolers.»

Allen, who was armed with a shotgun, handgun and knives, was apprehended by the Secret Service as hundreds of journalists and Cabinet officials were escorted out of the hotel.

DEMOCRATS SILENT ON PAST RHETORIC TOWARD TRUMP CABINET MEMBER AFTER FOILED ASSASSINATION PLOT

«The rhetoric on both sides, for a while now, has been elevated, and listen, the president has had a part of that,» Moskowitz said. «He’s had responsibility in the rhetoric, and he should own that. His tweets exist. There’s a reality of that.»

Allen, who appeared in federal court Monday, is facing charges of attempting to assassinate the president of the United States, transporting a firearm across state lines and discharging a firearm during a crime of violence.

Authorities said the suspect sent a written manifesto to members of his family outlining his intent to target Trump and other Cabinet officials before the alleged shooting.

DEM SENATE HOPEFULS UNDER SCRUTINY FOR ‘CHOKE THEM OUT’ RHETORIC AFTER TRUMP ATTACK SCARE

Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., speaks during a hearing with the full task force on the assassination attempt of former President Donald J. Trump on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 26, 2024. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg)

«The manifesto doesn’t sound much different than all of the talking heads on every liberal news station,» Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., said.

This would mark another assassination attempt targeting President Trump after two in 2024, when he was shot in the ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pa., and later targeted at his Florida golf course.

«You got psycho-frickin’ leftists trying to assassinate President Trump once again… the violence is always on their side,» Boebert said. «It is disgusting, and it needs to end, period.»

She said that President Trump’s plan for a ballroom addition to the White House is a necessary security measure.

«I want the ballroom built,» she said. «This is a national security issue at this time, and it needs to be built.»

She added these incidents are part of a larger pattern. In September, Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at Utah Valley University as part of his «American Comeback Tour.»

«Look what they did to Charlie Kirk, a man that wanted to sit down and have a conversation,» Boebert said. «They hated him so much, their rhetoric caused him to be assassinated. One of their liberal freaks assassinated him. This only happens with liberals,» Boebert said.

In a news conference on Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters a «left-wing cult of hatred» was to blame for the violence.

PATTERN OF LEFTIST VIOLENCE GROWS AS TRUMP NEARS 10 MONTHS IN OFFICE

Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel hosted a mock White House Correspondents Dinner on Thursday, April 23, 2026. (ABC/JimmyKimmelLive)

Leavitt slammed ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel for his recent comment that the first lady had the «glow of an expectant widow.»

«Who in their right mind says a wife would be glowing over the potential murder of her beloved husband?» she said. «And having experienced what I did with the first lady on Saturday night, I can tell you she was anything but that.»

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Multiple Democrats have also rejected far-left streamer Hasan Piker amid scrutiny of his political rhetoric. Piker pushed back, calling those condemning him «propagandists for the state of Israel.»

«I do reject people on my side, or trying to be on my side, like Hasan Piker, who’s advocating for senators to be killed and saying things like, ‘we deserve 9/11.’ He’s not a Democrat. He doesn’t belong in the Democratic Party,» Moskowitz said.

However, he said Americans «don’t believe» either side is blameless.

«The American people don’t believe that and it’s why our poll numbers for both sides are in the tubes,» Moskowitz said.

Fox News Digital attempted to ask Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., about the shooting and rising political violence, but she ignored the questions.

The motive for the shooting remains under investigation.

A dangerous dissident republican group, the New IRA—linked to Iran and Hezbollah—claimed responsibility Tuesday for a car bomb outside a Belfast police station before warning of further attacks, according to reports.

The blast targeted a Police Service of Northern Ireland station in Dunmurry, with police increasing patrols after the group threatened to target officers at their homes.

A 66-year-old man was also arrested Tuesday under terrorism laws following the explosion, Reuters reported.

In a statement attributed to the «leadership of the IRA,» the group said the bomb was meant to kill officers leaving the station. It warned that anyone cooperating with police «will be severely dealt with.»

LAWMAKER SAYS IRAN TARGETED HIM IN PHISHING ATTACK DISGUISED AS TV INTERVIEW

A 2020 report by The Times, citing information from an MI5 informant, alleged connections among the New IRA, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The report said individuals linked to the group signed a book of condolences following the 2020 killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad, raising concerns about possible external support, including weapons and funding.

«The New IRA–Hezbollah link is a useful data point in a much larger pattern: the operationalization of the so-called axis of resistance,» former Defense Department intelligence officer Andrew Badger told Fox News Digital.

TRUMP VINDICATED AS EXPLOSIVE REPORT CONFIRMS IRAN SUPERVISES HOUTHI ‘POLITICAL AND MILITARY AFFAIRS’

The European Union designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, with Ursula von der Leyen pledging rapid implementation following a violent crackdown. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

«This joins Russia, Iran, China, North Korea and an expanding bench of aligned non-state actors—into a working logistical and tradecraft network across the globe,» Badger said.

«What we are watching is the maturing of a hybrid warfare model, pioneered and led by Russia and Iran, in which adversaries of the Western-led order increasingly share tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) across geographies and ideologies,» said Badger, the co-author of «The Great Heist.»

The New IRA’s latest bombing also follows a similar attempted car bomb attack on another police station outside Belfast just weeks ago. It is one of several militant groups that oppose the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and want to end British rule in Northern Ireland and establish a united Ireland.

BRITAIN DRAGS FEET ON IRGC TERROR DESIGNATION AS IRAN-LINKED CENTER ALLEGEDLY SELLS EXTREMIST MERCHANDISE

The New IRA, linked to Iran and Hezbollah, claimed responsibility Tuesday for a car bomb outside a Belfast police station. (AP Photo / Peter Morrison)

It has carried out a series of attacks in recent years targeting police and security forces.

«The real challenge for local Irish police and security services is that these groups now compound each other’s learning,» Badger added.

«A tactic battle-tested in one theatre can be in the hands of a dissident cell in another within months—and Western counter-terror structures simply aren’t wired to track that kind of cross-pollination,» he said.

«A Lebanese Shia militia training a hard-left Irish republican faction would have looked exotic 10 years ago,» he added.

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«Today it is consistent with a wider pipeline including Russian sabotage cells using local criminal proxies in Europe and Iranian-directed assassination plots on U.K. and U.S. soil.»

«The playbook of these actors—proxies, dual-use logistics, weapons-and-finance pipelines, exploitation of grievance movements in the target country—appear to be converging,» Badger added.