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El informe de Standard & Poor’s confirma la solidez de las reservas y la estabilidad monetaria en Guatemala

El último informe publicado por S&P Global Ratings confirmó las calificaciones soberanas de Guatemala en moneda extranjera y local en nivel BB+, con perspectiva estable, reflejando una continuidad en su perfil crediticio.
Esta decisión consolida la posición del país como el de deuda pública neta más baja en América Latina, y reconoce su capacidad para sostener su solidez externa y una política monetaria confiable, incluso frente a escenarios de crisis internacionales y presiones domésticas para expandir el gasto en infraestructura.
Esta ratificación llega en un contexto de pronóstico de crecimiento económico moderado para Guatemala, con estimaciones de expansión anual promedio del 3,5% entre 2026 y 2029, según los analistas de S&P Global Ratings.
El informe precisa que, aunque se trata de una desaceleración respecto al 4% promedio de los cuatro años previos, el crecimiento sigue impulsado principalmente por el consumo, en especial el efecto de las remesas, que corresponden a alrededor del 20% del PIB y cuya estabilidad se considera una variable crítica para el desempeño económico nacional.
La decisión de S&P Global Ratings sitúa a Guatemala entre los países de la región con mejores indicadores externos. Destaca que las reservas internacionales alcanzaron el 26% del PIB en 2025 y que la posición de acreedor externo neto está entre las más sólidas de los mercados emergentes latinoamericanos.
Según las proyecciones, la deuda pública neta se mantendrá cerca del 20% del PIB entre 2026 y 2028, cifra ampliamente inferior al promedio regional, y los déficits fiscales se situarán en niveles manejables, pese al previsto aumento en la inversión de capital para infraestructura clave.

El balance positivo de la cuenta corriente representa otro aspecto clave del análisis. Guatemala ha registrado superávits en este rubro durante 10 años consecutivos, consecuencia del flujo sostenido de remesas desde el exterior y de una economía focalizada en el consumo interno. Aunque se estima que estos superávits disminuirán, se proyecta que las necesidades brutas de financiamiento externo promedien el 60% de los ingresos en cuenta corriente y reservas disponibles durante los próximos cuatro años, volumen considerado sostenible por el nivel actual de liquidez.
El tipo de cambio del quetzal revela elevada estabilidad, y la política monetaria del Banco Central de Guatemala mantiene la inflación bajo control: el índice de precios al consumidor promedió 1,6% en 2025, por debajo del objetivo central del 4% (+/- 1%). Bajo este escenario, el banco central aprobó una reducción de la tasa de política monetaria al 3,5% desde febrero de 2026.
La exposición de la deuda pública a moneda extranjera, que actualmente representa casi el 50%, ha descendido respecto al 60% registrado en 2015. Asimismo, cerca del 90% de la deuda es a tasa fija y con plazo extendido, limitando la vulnerabilidad ante fluctuaciones en mercados internacionales, subrayó S&P Global Ratings.
A pesar de la robustez de sus indicadores macroeconómicos, Guatemala enfrenta desafíos estructurales de largo plazo. S&P Global Ratings señala que el 56% de la población vivía en pobreza en 2023 y que entre el 70% y el 80% de los trabajadores se emplea en el sector informal, factores que restringen el crecimiento inclusivo y complican el aumento constante de ingresos fiscales.
El déficit de infraestructura es otro obstáculo importante. Aunque se han aprobado leyes para priorizar el desarrollo vial y alianzas público-privadas, la capacidad gubernamental para ejecutar a plenitud los planes de inversión sigue limitada. Entre los proyectos en marcha, resaltan la modernización del puerto de Quetzal —con apoyo del Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército de Estados Unidos—, mejoras en aeropuertos, ampliaciones viales y la construcción de un sistema de metro en Ciudad de Guatemala. Un reciente proceso licitatorio para aumentar la conectividad eléctrica fue declarado nulo y será relanzado, lo que evidencia las dificultades administrativas y políticas para impulsar infraestructura esencial.
La afirmación de la calificación ‘BB+’ toma en cuenta variables de calidad institucional y gobernanza. S&P Global Ratings sostiene: “La percepción histórica de corrupción elevada y el entorno político fragmentado han limitado la eficacia de la formulación de políticas”.
Sin embargo, durante 2026, la administración del presidente Bernardo Arévalo alcanzó consensos con el Congreso y logró aprobar leyes cruciales a pesar de su escasa representación parlamentaria, además de avanzar en el nombramiento de autoridades en el Tribunal Electoral, Procuraduría General y otras entidades clave, acciones que pueden fortalecer el sistema de contrapesos y avanzar en la agenda anticorrupción.
El informe advierte que la calificación podría ser rebajada en los próximos 12 a 24 meses si se presenta una caída inesperada de remesas y consumo interno o si la capacidad de crecimiento del PIB se deteriora, poniendo en jaque las posiciones fiscal y externa del país. Por su parte, una mejora de la calificación dependerá del fortalecimiento de la colaboración política y la ejecución eficaz de reformas, con impacto favorable en la resiliencia económica y el ingreso per cápita.
Guatemala,S&P Global Ratings,calificación crediticia,deuda,endeudamiento,América Latina,economía,remesas,pobreza,infraestructura
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Soros-backed prosecutor hit with rebuke after dismissing probe as Trump ‘partisan attacks’: ‘Hey scumbag’

Mother of murder victim Stephanie Minter calls out lenient policies amid DOJ investigation
Cheryl Minter, mother of murdered Stephanie Minter, expresses outrage over her daughter’s killing by an illegal immigrant with a violent criminal history. Minter reveals that Fairfax County Commonwealth Attorney Steve Descano repeatedly showed leniency to the suspect. She reacts to news that the DOJ is investigating Descano for giving preferential treatment to illegal immigrants over citizens, emphasizing the need to prioritize American children and citizens.
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Embattled Soros-backed prosecutor Steve Descano is facing scrutiny again, this time for dismissing a Justice Department probe into allegations that he gave favorable deals to illegal immigrants, calling it one of President Donald Trump’s «partisan attacks.»
Jennifer Harrison, head of the Victim Rights Reform Council, responded to Fairfax County, Virginia, Commonwealth’s Attorney Descano’s claim by writing on X, «Hey scumbag … This has NOTHING to do with President Trump and it’s not going to be the fundraising tool you thought it would – no Soros blood money for you today.»
The DOJ opened a «pattern or practice» civil rights investigation into Descano last week, examining whether his office violated federal law by weighing «immigration consequences» in charging decisions and plea deals, amid an ongoing spate of violent crime in Fairfax County involving illegal immigrants.
Victim Rights Reform Council requested that the DOJ launch an investigation on behalf of Cheryl Minter, whose daughter, Stephanie Minter, was fatally stabbed at a bus stop earlier this year, allegedly by Abdul Jalloh, a 32-year-old illegal immigrant from Sierra Leone.
DOJ OPENS INVESTIGATION INTO SOROS-BACKED DA ACCUSED OF SHIELDING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS FROM CONSEQUENCES
Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney Steve Descano speaks at an event in Fairfax County, Va. (Sarah Voisin/Getty Images)
Descano responded to the DOJ investigation through spokeswoman Laura Birnbaum, who wrote in a statement that «this investigation is the latest example of the Trump administration’s own ‘pattern or practice’ of misusing the Justice Department to launch partisan attacks.»
Birnbaum said the «DOJ’s letter announcing the investigation distorts the office’s policy,» which she said has «been in place publicly for over five years – and happened to arrive just a week before Commonwealth’s Attorney Descano is set to testify before Congress.»
Descano, whose entry into political office was propelled by a massive $627,653 donation from the Soros family’s Justice and Public Safety PAC, is set to testify before the House Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement on Thursday.
The hearing is titled «Fairfax County, Virginia: The Dangerous Consequences of Sanctuary Policies.» County Sheriff Stacey Kincaid will also testify, along with Minter, former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, a Republican, and Virginians for Safe Communities President Sean Kennedy.
SOROS-BACKED DA’S LAX ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION POLICIES LED TO ‘PREVENTABLE’ BUS STOP STABBING MURDER: COMPLAINT

Abdul Jalloh, 32, is accused of killing Stephanie Minter, 41, at a bus stop in Virginia. (Fairfax County Police Department; provided)
Birnbaum insisted, «Our office’s policies are fair, legal, and reflect the values of Fairfax County.»
She said Descano’s office «will not be distracted from our mission of keeping this community safe and holding individuals accountable when they commit crimes.»
In response, Harrison said the civil rights investigation was initiated after a request from a victim’s loved one.
«Hey scumbag – Cheryl Minter, mother of Stephanie filed the complaint that initiated the investigation. I know bc I filed it on her behalf,» wrote Harrison.
She continued, «We are also well aware that your deadly and disastrous policies were in place for quite some time – if not Cheryl’s daughter Stephanie would still be alive which is why we filed the complaint and asked for this investigation.»
DEM GOVERNOR UNDER FIRE AFTER ILLEGAL ALIEN ALLEGEDLY STABS WOMAN TO DEATH AT BUS STOP: ‘HEINOUS’

Harmeet K. Dhillon speaks at the IAC National Summit 2026 at The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood, Fla., on Jan. 17, 2026. (Noam Galai/Getty Images)
In another X post, Harrison called the victim’s mother «an amazing, brave woman,» writing, «We cannot bring Stephanie back but we can make sure this does not keep happening in her honor.»
Fox News Digital reached out to Descano’s office for comment.
In a press release following Minter’s death, the Department of Homeland Security claimed that Descano’s office had been warned about Jalloh and the danger he posed to the public ahead of Minter’s death.
Last week, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon said the investigation into Descano would zero in on his plea bargaining, charging decisions and sentencing policies.
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«Under my leadership, the Civil Rights Division will not allow local prosecutors to pick and choose winners based on their immigration status,» said Dhillon, adding, «This investigation will uncover whether this prosecutor is putting the community at risk in offering sweetheart deals to illegal immigrants charged with serious crimes.»
Fox News Digital also reached out to the DOJ and White House for comment.
Fox News Digital’s Leo Briceno and Ashley Oliver contributed to this report.
sanctuary cities, migrant crime, illegal immigrants, justice department, george soros, virginia, woke
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Lo que temen las potencias medianas sobre la cumbre Trump-Xi

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Trump accuses Schumer of trying to ‘interfere in our elections’ with latest strategy

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The partisan battle over midterm elections is heating up in Washington, D.C., with accusations flying that both sides are trying to rig the outcome in November.
Republicans are trying to hold on to their majority in both chambers, while Democrats are trying to pounce on sluggish legislating, infighting and rising costs in their quest to take over the House, Senate or both.
And President Donald Trump is already accusing Democrats of election interference months before Election Day.
SCHUMER, DEMS LAUNCH ‘FREE AND FAIR’ ELECTIONS TASK FORCE AS TRUMP’S SAVE AMERICA ACT STUMBLES
President Donald Trump accused Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Democrats of trying to «interfere in our elections» with their newly launched election integrity task force. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
«The Democrats are totally unhinged, and we will not allow them to threaten the integrity of our Elections,» Trump said on Truth Social.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Democrats recently launched a «free and fair elections task force» that would recruit the likes of former Attorney General Eric Holder and Marc Elias, who Trump charged was «a terrible lawyer with a horrible track record.»
«Palestinian Chuck Schumer is hiring Eric Holder, famous for handing guns to Mexican cartels under the Barack Hussein Obama administration, as part of a Democrat-led ‘Election Integrity Group’ that will no doubt try to suppress Republican voters, and interfere in our Elections,» Trump said on Truth Social.
Schumer and Senate Democrats debuted the elections task force as Republicans struggle to move forward on voter ID and citizenship verification legislation, and on the heels of the Supreme Court’s redistricting decision that is expected to further crank up the redistricting arms race across the country.
REPUBLICANS FAIL TO ATTACH SAVE AMERICA ACT TO PARTY-LINE FUNDING PACKAGE

Voters arrive at a polling location at the Burton Barr Central Library on Nov. 5, 2024, in Phoenix. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
«Donald Trump and the Republicans realize that if the election were held fairly, that the likelihood is that they would lose, and we would win, that we would take back the House, take back the Senate,» Schumer said.
«So they are doing all kinds of nefarious things, some of them legal, some of them not so legal, to try and overturn a fair result in an election,» he continued.
Schumer described the task force’s mission as seeking out «election threats,» including actions at the administrative level by the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS), attacks on the First Amendment, foreign threats and militarization of law enforcement at the polls.
Trump countered that in the 2024 election cycle, Republicans mounted an «Election Integrity Army in every single State to preserve the sanctity of each legal vote.»
«We will be doing the same again in 2026, but it will be much bigger and stronger,» Trump said. «All Americans should have their voices be heard by casting a vote. Be assured this Election will be fair!»
Its inception is in response to what Democrats say is a «comprehensive effort» by Trump and his administration to undermine the upcoming election, particularly through efforts to pass the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act.
TWO DOZEN HOUSE REPUBLICANS GO TO WAR WITH SENATE GOP OVER SAVE AMERICA ACT

The SAVE America Act, or a version of it pushed by Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., failed last month when four Republicans joined Democrats to kill it. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump has strongly pushed Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act, which would create federal voter ID laws, require proof of citizenship to register to vote and share information on voter rolls with DHS. Democrats say the legislation would disenfranchise millions of Americans.
But Republicans aren’t unified behind the legislation. The SAVE America Act, or a version of it pushed by Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., failed last month when four Republicans joined Democrats to kill it.
He has also called on Republicans to nationalize elections, and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin didn’t rule out sending federal immigration agents to polling places in the fall during his confirmation hearing earlier this year.
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It’s part of what Democrats charge is a concerted effort to tip the scales in the upcoming elections.
«Donald Trump doesn’t think he did too much in 2020 to steal the election,» Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said. «He thinks he did too little, and so that’s why you are seeing, already, a comprehensive effort to try to rig and steal the fall election.»
homeland security, democrats elections, midterm elections, republicans elections, senate elections
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