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Castro indictment fuels speculation Trump may be reviving Maduro playbook against Cuba
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The Trump administration’s decision to indict former Cuban leader Raúl Castro is fueling comparisons to the pressure campaign President Donald Trump previously used against Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro as the White House ramps up economic pressure, direct appeals to Cubans and military visibility in the Caribbean.
The indictment, tied to Cuba’s 1996 attack on two civilian aircraft that killed three U.S. citizens, has raised questions about whether the administration is testing a Venezuela-style pressure strategy against Havana’s communist regime.
The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group has been operating in the Caribbean under U.S. Southern Command authorities, providing a visible military backdrop to the administration’s increasingly confrontational posture toward Havana. Publicly announced assets include fighter aircraft, electronic warfare aircraft and guided-missile destroyers.
The broader posture has drawn comparisons to the administration’s earlier campaign against Maduro, which similarly began with criminal charges against a longtime anti-American strongman before expanding into a wider regime-pressure effort involving sanctions, diplomatic isolation and heightened U.S. military activity in the Caribbean.
OBAMA’S BASEBALL OUTING WITH CASTRO REIGNITES FURY AFTER TRUMP DOJ DROPS HAMMER ON CUBAN LEADER
Federal prosecutors charged Castro and several former Cuban officials Wednesday in the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue civilian aircraft that killed four men, including three U.S. citizens. Castro was Cuba’s defense minister at the time of the attack.
U.S. prosecutors allege Castro helped authorize the operation after the civilian planes repeatedly entered Cuban airspace while conducting missions linked to the Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue organization, which searched for Cuban migrants at sea and opposed the communist government in Havana.
Cuba President Raúl Castro addresses the Cuban Communist Party Congress in Havana, Cuba, in a file photo from April 16, 2016. (Ismael Francisco/Cubadebate/AP)
Cuban fighter jets ultimately shot down two unarmed aircraft over international waters in 1996, according to the indictment, triggering international condemnation and one of the most severe crises in U.S.-Cuba relations since the Cold War.
«At the very least, it means symbolically that he is now set up just as Nicolás Maduro was,» Christine Balling, a Cuba expert at the Institute of World Politics and former advisor to U.S. Special Operations Command South, told Fox News Digital.
Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro during a meeting at the National Assembly in Caracas, Aug. 22, 2025. (Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)
CIA Director John Ratcliffe meets with officials in Havana, Cuba, May 14, 2026, to discuss intelligence matters. (CIA)
During Trump’s earlier pressure campaign against Maduro, the U.S. indicted the Venezuelan leader on narco-terrorism charges, tightened sanctions on the country’s oil sector, backed opposition efforts to remove him and increased military operations in the Caribbean.
The campaign culminated in a U.S.-backed operation that removed Maduro from effective power and reopened channels of American influence inside Venezuela through energy negotiations and cooperation involving senior figures, including Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.
RUBIO LAYS OUT THREE-PHASE PLAN FOR VENEZUELA AFTER MADURO: ‘NOT JUST WINGING IT’
«I don’t think that we are necessarily going to conduct the same operation,» Balling said. «Raúl Castro is 94 years old. It might not be worth the trouble.»
Still, Balling argued, the indictment sends «a very straightforward message that we are 100% behind the fall of the Castro regime.»
The White House could not immediately be reached for comment.
RUBIO SAYS CUBA NEEDS ‘NEW PEOPLE IN CHARGE’ AS BLACKOUTS, UNREST GRIP ISLAND
Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced that message this week with a direct appeal to the Cuban people, accusing the communist government of blaming the island’s collapse on the U.S. «blockade» while enriching military-linked elites who dominate the Cuban economy. Rubio also highlighted the success of Cubans living abroad, arguing the Cuban people — not the regime — were capable of prosperity.
Balling described Rubio’s remarks as a deliberate attempt to undermine Havana’s domestic propaganda and convince Cubans that the regime, rather than the United States, bears primary responsibility for the island’s economic collapse.
«Rubio wants them to understand that the regime is acting against their own interests,» she said.
Trump further fueled speculation this week when asked whether tensions with Cuba would escalate following the Castro indictment.
«There won’t be escalation,» Trump said. «We won’t have to.»
Some analysts interpreted Trump’s comments — combined with Rubio’s direct appeals to ordinary Cubans — as a sign the administration may believe internal pressure against the regime could eventually accomplish what direct military escalation would not.
«It’s sowing the seeds of a counter-revolutionary feeling,» Balling said.
But Balling warned that any serious destabilization of Cuba could trigger consequences far beyond the island itself, particularly a potential mass migration crisis just 90 miles from Florida.
«If we go so far as to engage militarily, we are probably looking at thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of refugees,» she said.
Cuba has already been suffering through rolling blackouts, fuel shortages and a worsening economic crisis as the administration increases pressure on the island’s energy lifelines.
Despite the increasingly confrontational rhetoric, Washington has also kept open limited channels of communication with Havana.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled publicly to Cuba on May 14 for talks with senior Cuban security officials, delivering what U.S. officials described as a warning that Cuba could no longer serve as a «safe haven for adversaries» while also offering the prospect of deeper economic and security engagement if Havana makes «fundamental changes.»
The visit came as the Trump administration pressed a $100 million humanitarian aid proposal aimed at addressing Cuba’s worsening blackout and fuel crisis. Cuban officials signaled they were open to accepting assistance distributed through independent humanitarian and religious organizations rather than directly through the government.
Analysts say Cuba’s armed forces are far weaker than during the Cold War, when the island fielded one of Latin America’s largest militaries with Soviet backing. Today, experts describe the Cuban military as severely degraded by decades of economic collapse, fuel shortages and aging equipment.
«Cuba had a First World military in a Third World country,» Frank Mora, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Western Hemisphere under President Barack Obama, told The Wall Street Journal this week. «It’s a shell of a shell of what it used to be.»
Still, analysts caution that Cuba’s weakness does not necessarily make the island easy to pressure or destabilize.
Unlike Venezuela, where the U.S. has at times maintained limited economic engagement despite sanctions on Maduro’s government, Cuba’s military-linked conglomerate GAESA controls large portions of the island’s economy, including tourism, retail and infrastructure.
Balling argued that the deep integration between the regime and the broader Cuban state could complicate any attempt to isolate Havana’s leadership without further destabilizing the country itself.
The administration also has increasingly framed Cuba as a broader national security concern beyond the island’s deteriorating conventional military capabilities. Rubio this week accused Havana of hosting Chinese and Russian intelligence infrastructure.
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For now, administration officials have stopped short of outlining any military plans for Cuba.
But the combination of criminal charges, economic pressure, information campaigns and visible U.S. military assets in the region has convinced many Cuba watchers that the White House is exploring whether the Maduro pressure model can be adapted just 90 miles from American shores.
cuba, caribbean, venezuelan political crisis, nicolas maduro, sanctions
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Encuentro en Turquía: Europa intenta contener a Donald Trump en una cumbre clave de la OTAN
Los europeos intentan salvar otra cumbre de la OTAN ante las embestidas de un Donald Trump que nunca entendió la organización y mucho menos el papel de su país en ella. El presidente estadounidense considera que los europeos se aprovechan de Estados Unidos desde hace 80 años, pero sin la plataforma que ofrece Europa, Washington sería incapaz de proyectar poder en el resto del mundo y habría perdido su primer mercado.
Trump llegó a Ankara este martes diciendo que estaba “muy decepcionado” por la respuesta que los europeos dieron a su aventura bélica en Irán. “Me decepcionó mucho”, dijo ante el anfitrión de la cumbre, el presidente turco Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “No necesitábamos ninguna ayuda, sólo estaba probándolos”. Aseguró que sólo asiste a la reunión “por Erdogan”, despreciando a los otros 30 gobernantes presentes.
El presidente estadounidense volvió a amenazar a Dinamarca al decir que “Groenlandia debería estar bajo control de Estados Unidos”, elevando la tensión de la cumbre incluso antes de su inicio formal. Trump hizo incluso referencias a la política migratoria europea (le parece blanda) y a la energética (rechaza las renovables que va sumando Europa).
Hace un año, en La Haya, Trump les exigió gastar en defensa el 5,0% del PBI. Todos aceptaron excepto el español Pedro Sánchez, que se sigue negando con el argumento de que no es ni militarmente necesario ni económicamente sostenible. La OTAN, sin Estados Unidos, ya gastaba en defensa siete veces más que Rusia antes de los aumentos del año pasado.
Los Estados miembros de la organización deben presentar en esta cumbre sus programas de gasto de los próximos años para llegar a ese 5%. España no lo hará. Otros lo harán a sabiendas de que su situación económica (deuda pública italiana por encima del 130% del PBI, francesa ya rozando el 120%) o política (el Reino Unido y sus recurrentes cambios de primer ministro) complican cumplir cualquier promesa.
Pero hay que contener a Trump. Así que la cumbre arrancó con un foro empresarial en el que se anunciaron acuerdos con la industria estadounidense por valor de 1.600 millones de euros, pecata minuta en un gasto militar que el año pasado subió en Europa un 20%. Alemania por su cuenta ya gasta más de 100.000 millones de euros al año.
Mark Rutte, secretario general de la Alianza Atlántica (el cargo es más de coordinación que de liderazgo) y ex primer ministro holandés, dedicado desde hace año y medio a aplaudir y halagar a Trump hasta límites que rozan el ridículo, vende una cumbre sin problemas, exitosa y de consolidación de la OTAN. Pero a los europeos les valdría con que Trump no rompiera nada.
La situación es tan incómoda que del borrador de declaración final se cayó por ahora toda referencia a la cumbre del próximo año, que debía celebrarse en Albania. Algunos creen que si no hay cumbre, hay menos posibilidad de chocar con el inquilino del Despacho Oval.
Rutte vende que los europeos están dando pasos rápidos y reales para asumir la seguridad del continente sin Estados Unidos, también en el flanco oriental y en el Ártico, donde Trump amenaza desde hace meses con arrebatarle por la fuerza a Dinamarca la isla de Groenlandia. Rutte, ciego a eso, dice que “toda la evidencia es de una Europa y una OTAN más fuertes”.
Pero Trump no parece escuchar. En los últimos meses dijo varias veces que la OTAN es “un tigre de papel” y critica con dureza que los europeos no quisieran ayudar a Estados Unidos en su aventura militar contra Irán, fuera del marco de la OTAN, sin haberles consultado y sin estrategia evidente.
Jens Stoltenberg, antecesor de Rutte en el cargo, decía este lunes que si Trump simplemente anuncia que Estados Unidos no se siente obligado por el tratado de la OTAN, es decir, que no defendería a un país aliado atacado por un tercer país, en la práctica la organización habría muerto.
Rutte intenta que se mire a otros lados. El lunes a última hora, después de que China hiciera un lanzamiento de un misil de prueba desde un submarino nuclear en el Pacífico, Rutte dijo que la OTAN no puede ser “ingenua” sobre el desarrollo militar chino, aunque el tratado fundacional de la Alianza Atlántica sólo cubre el espacio noratlántico, no el Pacífico, salvo que a China se le ocurriera atacar en territorio europeo, estadounidense o canadiense.
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Talarico campaigns with surgeon who operated on transgender minors: ‘Wolf in sheep’s clothing’
These are not Texas values, Ken Paxton says
Texas Attorney General and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Ken Paxton reacts to Rep. James Talarico’s, D-Texas., radical views on Christianity and gender on ‘Hannity.’
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Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is facing questions after fundraising with a «female-to-male» top surgeon who previously operated on minors shortly after saying that he does not support sex-change surgeries for children.
Talarico, a progressive Democrat, state lawmaker and Presbyterian seminarian, is running a highly competitive race to flip a Texas Senate seat for the first time in decades. He is opposing Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton. The seat is critical to both parties’ hopes of holding a Senate majority this next session.
During an appearance on the «Unity Over Division» podcast on June 8, Talarico responded to criticisms that he supports gender transition for minors by stating, «I oppose gender reassignment surgeries for minors.»
Days later, he participated in an Austin «Pride for Talarico» fundraiser that featured Dr. Dustin Reid, a female-to-male breast surgeon who confirmed with Fox News Digital that he previously operated on minors in «rare» cases prior to Texas banning the practice. He said that he no longer performs these surgeries in line with Texas law.
SENATE HOPEFUL SAYS TEXAS HOME TO THE ‘BEST DRAG QUEENS IN THE NATION’ IN RESURFACED COMMENTS
Left: Supporters of transgender rights rally on the steps of the Texas Capitol ahead of an advocacy day of meetings with state representatives on March 20, 2023. Right: Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico. (Julia Robinson for The Washington Post via Getty; Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Speaking with Fox News Digital over the phone, Reid confirmed his participation in the event in support of Talarico. He said that «in the past, on a case-by-case basis, I would do that [female-to-male surgeries on minors] but not since they made it illegal in Texas.»
His practice’s website currently states he «does follow the WPATH (World Professional Association for Transgender Health) standards for patients under the age of 18.»
Reid clarified that, in line with WPATH’s guidelines, he previously performed FTM surgeries on minors, saying «it was rare but not completely unheard of.»
«There were occasions where someone would be under 18 and everyone involved in their care agreed that it was the best decision for this patient. But that was, like I said, rare because, for the most part, I like people to make the decision as an adult.»
WPATH’s «Standards of Care for the Health of Transgender and Gender Diverse People» state that the association recommends health care professionals suggest «gender-affirming medical or surgical treatments» for adolescents only when said minor meets a set of conditions. These conditions include that the minor «meets the diagnostic criteria of gender incongruence,» which is «marked and sustained over time,» that the child «demonstrates the emotional and cognitive maturity required to provide informed consent/assent for the treatment,» and that «the adolescent’s mental health concerns (if any) that may interfere with diagnostic clarity, capacity to consent, and/or gender-affirming medical treatments have been addressed.»
WPATH requires minors receiving sex-change surgeries to be «informed of the reproductive effects, including the potential loss of fertility.»
The guidelines also state that while «in most settings, for minors, the legal guardian is integral to the informed consent process … for unique situations in which an adolescent minor is consenting for their own treatment without parental permission … extra care must be taken to support the adolescent’s informed decision-making.»
As Texas attorney general, Paxton notably recently joined the state in the Federal Trade Commission’s suit, which alleges that WPATH «falsely asserts that its recommendations are the result of rigorous scientific procedures and expert consensus, even though WPATH disregarded established guideline- development standards, ignored the results of its own evidence reviews, and removed age limits in response to external pressure rather than scientific evidence.»
TALARICO SAYS HE ‘HATES CHRISTIANITY’ IN UNEARTHED INTERVIEW WITH TRANSGENDER ‘LATINX’ THEOLOGIAN
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican US Senate candidate, arrives to speak during a runoff election night event in Plano, Texas, US, on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. (Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the website for Reid, who practices out of the Restora Austin Plastic Surgery Centre, says he has «extensive experience in FTM [female-to-male] top surgery.»
The center’s website features a large picture on the top of its page on FTM surgeries showing a young individual ripping a piece of paper with the word «female.»
Reid’s personal website features several before and after pictures of surgically removed breasts. The site states that «with over a decade of experience, he is known for delivering masculine, natural-looking results while providing a patient-first experience.» The website claims that «patients travel from across Texas and the United States because they trust his exceptional skill—and his empathy.»
«Our clinic provides an affirming, inclusive environment where your identity and goals are honored,» says the website.
When asked by Fox News Digital, Reid said he could not recall how many such surgeries he performed. While saying he does not oppose the ban outright, he told Fox News Digital that «a total ban on anything in medicine can be problematic.»
«For the most part, I think the bar should be higher for gender-affirming care or surgery in minority patients, but it shouldn’t be banned because, like I said, there were times where on a case-by-case basis it was the right thing for the patient,» he said.
While Talarico has recently come out against sex-change surgeries for children, he voted against a bill banning the practice in Texas in 2023. Around the same time, he said the ban on transgender surgeries for minors «infuriates me» and listed it as one of «the most dangerous» bills passed in Texas.
In a podcast appearance that same year, Talarico said the ban stemmed from the «Christofascism» movement. In another speech that year, he said that if Jesus visited the Texas legislature, he would say, «Blessed are the trans children who are bullied.»
SHOCK POLL: TALARICO TIES PAXTON IN TEXAS SENATE RACE, THREATENING GOP STRONGHOLD
James Talarico, a Democrat from Texas and US Senate candidate, speaks at a campaign event in Round Rock, Texas, US, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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Talarico’s pride fundraiser this June also saw the participation of the Human Rights Campaign’s political action committee, which has endorsed his Senate run. The Human Rights Campaign previously opposed the Texas ban on what it called «evidence-based, life-saving health care for transgender adolescents.» Today, the group holds that «medically-necessary health care for Transgender people (called gender-affirming care) is under threat nationwide.»
Fox News Digital reached out to the Human Rights Campaign for comment.
Following his participation in the Austin event, Lone Star Liberty PAC spokesman Gregg Keller criticized Talarico, telling Fox News Digital he «is lying to Texans» by «claiming he doesn’t support child genital mutilation surgeries after fighting for them his entire political career.»
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«Talarico is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and his fundraisers last month with radical transvestite surgery activists proves it,» said Keller. «They are bankrolling his campaign because they know he still secretly supports their evil agenda of castrating young boys and amputating the healthy body parts of girls.»
In response, JT Ennis, a spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign, reaffirmed that «James opposes gender reassignment surgery for minors.»
«While billionaire-bought politicians like Ken Paxton spread lies to divide Texans, James will continue to stand up against both political parties to fix this broken, corrupt political system and bring down costs for Texas families,» Ennis told Fox News Digital.
Meanwhile, Madison Cercy, a spokesperson for Paxton’s campaign, asserted that Talarico «is willing to sacrifice common sense at the altar of his extreme ideology, only to turn around and lie to Texans about the positions he has supported his entire career.»
Referring to Talarico as «Talacreepo,» Cercy told Fox News Digital that the Democrat «has a long history of denying biological reality, opposing protections for kids, and standing with the most radical activists in the country who have no regard for child safety.»
She said that «as Attorney General, Ken Paxton has fought to protect Texas children by defending girls’ sports, taking legal action against those who perform ‘transition’ procedures for kids, defending parents’ rights, and holding institutions accountable when they put ideology ahead of children’s safety.»
«The contrast couldn’t be clearer: Sanity vs. Extremism,» she added.
Fox News Digital also reached out to WPATH for comment.
elections, senate elections, woke, dei, texas, democratic party, midterm elections
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French court clears path for conservative presidential candidate, but house arrest threatens campaign
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A French appeals court upheld the embezzlement conviction for conservative former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen on Tuesday, but shortened a ban on her running for elected office, clearing her path to run for president in 2027, albeit mandating she wear an ankle monitor for a year.
France’s Paris Criminal Court originally found Le Pen guilty of embezzlement in 2025, accusing her and other members of her conservative National Rally party of using millions of dollars in EU funds to pay aides for domestic French political work. Le Pen denies any wrongdoing.
Le Pen was originally sentenced to five years in prison, with two years suspended and three years on house arrest. In the French system, the two suspended years would serve as a warning, while Le Pen would be expected to serve the three years on house arrest. Her sentence also carried a five-year ban from running for political office, barring her from running in France’s 2027 presidential election.
However, an appeals court ruled Tuesday that Le Pen’s sentence would be reduced to three years, with two suspended and the remaining year to be served as house arrest, according to a court statement obtained by Fox News Digital.
MUSK SLAMS LE PEN RULING, SAYS IT WILL ‘BACKFIRE’ LIKE TRUMP’S AS SOME ON GLOBAL RIGHT FACE LEGAL TROUBLES
Marine Le Pen arrives to attend the verdict in the appeal trial on charges of embezzlement of European public funds in a case of alleged European Parliament fake jobs at Paris Court of Appeal on July 7, 2026. (Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images)
The ruling also shortened her ban from running for office to 45 months, 30 of which are considered to be suspended. Given that the court considered her suspension active starting from initial sentencing in March 2025, the ruling means Le Pen is eligible to run for office effective immediately.
However, if she were to decide on a presidential run, she would have to do so while serving the house arrest sentence, a prospect she has already cast doubt on.
«If I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible,» she told French media Wednesday.
Le Pen, along with 11 other associates, were found guilty of a litany of crimes related to the misuse of public funds. Le Pen herself was found guilty on charges of misappropriating public funds and complicity in the misappropriation of public funds.
«The court found that an organization had been set up to allow the European Parliament to cover the remuneration of parliamentary assistants for National Front (which became Rassemblement National) MEPs, whereas their activities had no connection with the mandate of their MEP and they were actually working for the national political party,» a press release from the Paris Court of Appeals read.
French President Emmanuel Macron holds a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London, England. (Leon Neal)
The release claimed the defendants misappropriated €2.8 million, which the court ordered them to pay back in restitution.
Le Pen, for her part, admitted that some staff paid as EU staffers were relegated to domestic French work, but she claimed it was simply a mistake and not, as alleged, part of a scheme to divert E.U. funds to her National Rally party.
6 POPULIST LEADERS FACING LAWFARE AROUND WORLD
National Rally President Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen hug as they attend a party event in Lievin, northern France on July 4, 2026. (Simon Wohlfahrt/AFP via Getty Images)
Le Pen, according to The Associated Press, immediately went from the courthouse to National Rally headquarters to strategize the party’s future plans. She is expected to address the country in a news conference or interview Tuesday night.
Her legal team at the courthouse said, «We are considering the decision as a whole. We will issue a further statement. We are partially satisfied,» according to Reuters.
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Fox News Digital contacted representatives for National Rally and the Paris appeals court for further comment.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
france, emmanuel macron, politics, world, europe
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