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La calificadora Moody’s ratifica la nota Ba1 de Guatemala y mantiene la perspectiva estable
Moody’s reafirmó la calificación de Guatemala en Ba1 y mantuvo la perspectiva estable, lo que posiciona al país centroamericano a un solo nivel del grado de inversión e implica un reconocimiento al avance institucional y la prudencia fiscal, de acuerdo con información del Ministerio de Finanzas Públicas citada por Minfin.
Esta ratificación consolida una tendencia favorable iniciada en 2025, cuando S&P Global Ratings elevó su nota a BB+ y Fitch Ratings también mejoró su evaluación, alineando a las tres principales agencias internacionales en un diagnóstico común: estabilidad del perfil crediticio guatemalteco.
El dato más reciente sobre la economía nacional indica que Guatemala creció 4,3% en 2025, resultado que supera el 4,1% estimado previamente y confirmado por las autoridades monetarias tras la revisión efectuada en abril, según Minfin.
Esta evolución se da en un contexto en el que el país sostiene una de las deudas públicas netas más bajas de América Latina, fenómeno destacado por Moody’s Ratings en su informe. La agencia cita también el rol de las remesas y el gasto público como factores clave en el dinamismo económico.
La decisión de Moody’s se fundamenta en tres áreas: el refuerzo institucional, el crecimiento sólido y la resiliencia externa. El informe expresa: “La confirmación de la calificación Ba1 de Guatemala equilibra el impulso institucional en mejora, el sólido crecimiento tendencial, el historial de gestión fiscal prudente y la limitada vulnerabilidad externa, frente a las persistentes restricciones estructurales económicas e institucionales en comparación con países de mayor calificación”, según la propia calificadora.
La ratificación se produce tras la aprobación de instrumentos legislativos como la Ley de Infraestructura Vial Prioritaria, la Ley de Alianzas Público-Privadas y la Ley de Competencia, reformas impulsadas por el gobierno del presidente Bernardo Arévalo y destinadas a fortalecer la competitividad y atraer inversiones. Moody’s resalta estos logros como indicadores de que la agenda de reformas se mantiene en marcha.
La permanencia en el nivel Ba1 obedece también a la evaluación de desafíos persistentes. Moody’s advierte que la capacidad estatal, la baja base de ingresos y el déficit significativo de infraestructura continúan afectando el desempeño económico.
Estas debilidades, originadas en un “largo historial de baja formación de capital físico y humano”, restringen la capacidad productiva y dificultan tanto las funciones administrativas y regulatorias estatales como la captación de inversión extranjera directa y la competitividad exportadora.
Pese a estas restricciones, Moody’s señala que la fortaleza fiscal de Guatemala se apoya en un “largo historial de gestión prudente de la deuda y una carga de deuda gubernamental baja”. Sin embargo, la estructura rígida del gasto y los ingresos limitados afectan la flexibilidad del gobierno en el manejo fiscal y la asequibilidad de la deuda, de acuerdo con el reporte de Minfin.
La perspectiva estable asignada por la agencia responde a la expectativa de una mejora gradual. Moody’s sostiene que los avances en materia institucional “tardarán en traducirse en fundamentos económicos o fiscales materialmente más sólidos”, dado que la aplicación de políticas enfrenta barreras estructurales.
Por otro lado, advierte que los riesgos externos —como el endurecimiento de las políticas migratorias de Estados Unidos y la volatilidad de los precios internacionales— pueden incidir en el flujo de remesas, aunque estos efectos se ven mitigados por los “sólidos colchones externos y la gestión macroeconómica prudente”.
En el sistema financiero, el techo soberano en moneda local permanece en Baa1, tres escalones por encima de la nota soberana, reflejo de la “limitada intervención gubernamental en la economía y el riesgo político contenido”. El techo de moneda extranjera se mantiene en Baa3, dos niveles por debajo del techo local, y evidencia la persistencia de una “alta relación de préstamos en moneda extranjera respecto a depósitos, superior al 100% en el sistema bancario guatemalteco frente a sus pares regionales”.
El Ministerio de Finanzas Públicas coordina la gestión del riesgo país a través de la Mesa Interinstitucional para el Análisis de la Calificación del País (MINAPA), encargada de canalizar la interlocución con inversionistas, agencias calificadoras y organismos multilaterales. Según Minfin, la cartera intensificará esta estrategia de comunicación con los mercados para respaldar el proceso de reforma y avanzar hacia el grado de inversión.
Moody’s,Guatemala,Ba1,calificación,crédito,economía,perspectiva,estable,finanzas
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Could this African nation become Trump’s next terror target as jihadists close in on power?
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JOHANNESBURG: The U.S. is reportedly considering airstrikes against al Qaeda-linked terrorists in Mali, according to regional analysts and recent media reports.
The military junta that has been running this West African country in the Sahel region since coups in both 2020 and 2021 turned away from France and the U.S. to get military protection from Russia and its Africa Corps mercenaries against jihadist groups.
But now the largest of these groups, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has Mali’s capital under siege, is credited, along with another group, for killing 50 Malian soldiers this month, for the death of the country’s defense minister earlier this year and has reportedly sent battalions of Russian soldiers retreating on at least two occasions this year.
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Malian troops parade during the country’s 65th anniversary of the African nation’s independence. (Habib Kouyate/Xinhua via Getty Images)
JNIM is said to want to change the country into an Islamist Jihadist state. If they succeed, Mali would be the first country in the world to be run by a jihadist group. The organization was designated officially as a Foreign Terrorist Organization during the first Trump administration in 2018.
Islamic State (ISIS) jihadist groups are also operating freely in Mali, and are linked to terror groups in neighboring Nigeria.
A State Department official didn’t respond to a Washington Post report that the U.S. is considering strikes against JNIM in Mali, but used strong language Thursday when talking to Fox News Digital, leading analysts to suggest the time for talking may be over.
«The United States unequivocally condemns the terrorist activity in Mali,» the official said, adding, «in the Sahel, the United States is committed to promoting regional ownership and cooperation against terrorist threats, and monitoring indicators and warnings of threats to our homeland.»
This undated photograph handed out by French military shows three Russian mercenaries, right, in northern Mali. Russia has engaged in under-the-radar military operations in at least half a dozen countries in Africa in the last five years using a shadowy mercenary force analysts say is loyal to President Vladimir Putin. The analysts say the Wagner Group of mercenaries is also key to Putin’s ambitions to re-impose Russian influence on a global scale. (French Army via AP)
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British and United Nations diplomat, said the U.S. could order military action, to primarily try and stop jihadists becoming entrenched in Mali. Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital, «Mali is mainly important to the U.S. because, as a failed state becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda and ISIS, it looks like the first of several African dominoes likely to fall.»
Retired U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth P. Ekman, who until last year, served as the Department of War’s West Africa Coordination Element lead, said that with strike action the administration may be able to persuade Mali’s rulers to turn away from Russia, and towards the U.S. for protection – and purchases of military equipment.
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A column of black smoke rises above buildings as traffic passes the Africa Tower monument in Bamako on April 26, 2026. April 25, 2026’s shock attacks, synchronized by Tuareg rebels of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) coalition and the jihadist Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), targeted several areas in the vast arid country. Fighting resumed on April 26 in several areas, including Kita near Bamako, Kidal, Gao and Severe.Tuareg rebels meanwhile announced an agreement allowing Russian forces backing Mali’s army to withdraw from the northern city of Kidal, which they claimed was «totally» under their control. (AFP via Getty Images)
Ekman told Fox News Digital, «JNIM has a stranglehold on the government and much of the population. The Russians are woefully ineffective and extractive. Cooperation with U.S. forces offers a disproportionate and positive impact.»
Ekman said that U.S. forces have supported partner-led operations against JNIM before, as recently as 2022, adding «recent proposals amount to returning to similar cooperation against a mutual threat.»
The administration may also be in a minerals frame of mind. Mali is one of Africa’s largest gold-producing nations. It also has substantial deposits of lithium, used extensively in rechargeable batteries.
Fitton-Brown said that «President Trump may be less reluctant than his predecessor to work with the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, if they are losing faith in their Russian friends.»
Vehicle turned up following brutal ambush on Russian Wagner fighters in Mali on July 27, 2024. (East2West)
He continued, «The U.S. is certainly a more capable partner. France has already been displaced so all three countries might accept U.S. help if it comes only with strings attached that don’t offend or disadvantage them. Whether even the U.S. is capable of stopping the political decline of these countries, and the rise of militant Islam, is another matter. That cannot be achieved by military force alone.»
The FDD’s Fitton-Brown said U.S. assets such as aircraft may not be directly involved if there is a strike, «The U.S. might work with French and other intelligence services to develop local intelligence for strikes on JNIM leadership, but this is unlikely to achieve much. The organization is resilient and will be able to replace those killed.»
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A former senior Department of War official told Fox News Digital the U.S. has at its disposal cruise missiles and long-range bombers. Attack drones would probably not come into play, and the U.S. Naval Institute’s Fleet Tracker shows no American aircraft carriers anywhere near African waters, effectively ruling out carrier operations.
However, Ekman believes airstrikes are under consideration, noting «JNIM and ISIS are a threat to U.S. interests, and are ascendant in West Africa.»
africa, counter terrorism, mali, terrorism, national security, al qaeda
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Mamdani warning to wealthy New Yorkers about ‘fair share’ sparks online firestorm: ‘Full blown communist’
Mamdani’s NYC wealth tax plan ignites fiery debate
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s «pied-a-terre» wealth tax on luxury properties ignites a contentious debate, drawing strong criticism from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman.
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New York City socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani is facing heat on social media after his post celebrating the state’s new pied-à-terre tax on New Yorkers with a second home.
«If you have a second home in New York City worth more than $5M, check your mailbox when you’re back in the five boroughs — because you’ve got mail,» Mamdani posted on X, touting the tax on specific second properties introduced by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul that he supported going into effect soon.
«Today, we sent notification letters to property owners, letting them know that our new pied-à-terre tax is coming soon,» Mamdani continued. «The best city in the world deserves the best parks, libraries, and schools in the world. That’s only possible when we all pay our fair share. «
As of Friday morning, Mamdani’s post had been viewed over 10 million times and conservatives on social media blasted the mayor and warned that the exodus of wealthy New Yorkers will only continue under this new plan.
HOCHUL CONFRONTED ON STUDY SHOWING MILLIONAIRE EXODUS IN NEW YORK CITY
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s video admitting that he lacks the legal authority to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did little to ease Jewish leaders’ concerns. (NYC Mayor’s Office via YouTube/Handout via Reuters)
«Never elect a politician who: (1) sees your money as his slush fund, (2) loves Karl Marx, or(3) uses French words like ‘pied-à-terre’ to disguise new, confiscatory taxes he wants to impose to redistribute wealth,» Republican Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) posted on X.
«Socialism – Florida’s best real estate agent,» Republican Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) posted on X.
«NYC’s pied-à-terre tax hasn’t even started and brokers already say owners are calling to sell,» GOP strategist and attorney Mehek Cooke posted on X. «Empty units don’t tip [doormen] or pay supers. You’re not taxing the rich. You’re firing the working class that depended on them. «
«More incitement,» Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton posted on X. «Communist @NYCMayor celebrates a confiscatory tax targeted at a select few. «
MAMDANI SETS INTERNET ABLAZE WITH VIDEO EXPLAINING CAVE ON PLAN TO ARREST NETANYAHU: ‘WHAT A JOKE’
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks about the excitement of seeing the Buffalo Bills in Western New York for the next 30 years during the ribbon cutting ceremony for the new Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on June 23, 2026. (Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
«What will the excuse be when literally nothing improves after all these tax increases?» New York City Republican Councilwoman Vickie Paladino posted on X. «Will they just demand even more, or will they tell us to ignore our own eyes as they insist they’ve actually fixed everything? Both? «
«The condescension towards the people who already pay a ton of property taxes to NYC,» Washington Free Beacon investigative reporter Chuck Ross posted on X. » He thinks you’re an immoral person and worthy of mockery if you have a second home. ‘when you’re back in the five boroughs.’»
«That’s only possible when we all pay our fair share,’ says the man who’s literally lived off of taxpayer dollars for years, produces nothing, and is concentrating the burdens on others—others who’ve contributed exponentially more to the city in both taxes and charitable contributions than he could possibly hope to contribute in 10 lifetimes, I might add,» Manhattan Institute fellow Rafael Mangual posted on X.
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Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks at a rally in New York alongside 1199SEIU members and immigration advocates after the Supreme Court ruled the Trump administration can revoke protections for Haitians and Syrians. (Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)
«You can practically feel the glee emanating from this tweet so it’s hilarious that people will still refuse to admit he’s a full-blown communist,» civil rights attorney David Pivtorak posted on X.
Mamdani’s support of the pied-à-terre tax on second homes worth more than $5 million has been a viral controversy for months and started when
In April, New York City Mayor Mamdani and Hochul unveiled the joint legislative proposal targeting luxury second homes worth $5 million or more. Known as a pied-à-terre tax, the annual surcharge is expected to generate an estimated $500 million from affluent out-of-state property owners.
Mamdani has previously said revenue from the tax would go toward initiatives such as free childcare, cleaner streets and safer neighborhoods.
Critics, including billionaire Ken Griffin whose luxury New York City home was featured in Mamdani’s controversial video announcing the tax, argue the tax will only drive more wealthy New Yorkers out of the state and bring jobs and investments with them.
Fox News Digital reached out to Mamdani’s office for comment.
Fox Business’s Kristen Altus contributed to this report
zohran mamdani, politics, kathy hochul, taxes, property, new york city
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Could this African nation become Trump’s next terror target as jihadists close in on power?
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