As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, a political clock is ticking at home.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil choke point largely shuttered since the conflict with Iran due to Iranian attacks — reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, pushing normalization of global energy markets closer to the Nov. 3 midterm elections. 

«It’s then going to take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,» Smith said.

The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outlast the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions to global energy markets could linger long after any agreement is reached, leaving voters with months of elevated costs heading into the midterms.

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The economic effects are already visible. 

The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.

Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion throughout the past three months, or about $750 per household, through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.

To some, the conflict already has gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.

«There is a timeline and we’ve already passed it,» GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.

The White House rejected the notion that the conflict could become a long-term political liability, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.

«President Trump remains laser-focused on keeping the American people safe, lowering costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever before,» White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. «The President and his energy team anticipated short-term market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts.»

Rogers said Trump «will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon» and argued that «when the President forces this conflict to a successful end, gas prices will drop back to multi-year lows and global energy markets will be much more stable in the long term.»

«We were promised that this would be a short operation, and repeatedly told it would all be over in 24–48 hours,» he went on. «This is no longer a blip.»

Others see a narrow window remaining.

«I think that it really needs to be resolved by July Fourth,» Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News Digital. «If it’s not resolved by July Fourth, I don’t think the economy is going to have time to really kind of get going on all levels.»

Feehery’s July 4 benchmark coincides with a period in which the White House hopes to shift public attention toward the kickoff of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations.

The administration has alternated between signaling that a deal is near and warning that military action remains possible. More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become «very boring» and that he «couldn’t care less» if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would «be dropping like a rock» in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible.

But regardless of how the negotiations conclude, strategists argue that economic relief must arrive soon if Republicans hope to avoid carrying the conflict’s fallout into the midterms.

Republicans enter the midterms defending a narrow House majority that many analysts view as vulnerable to the traditional midterm backlash against a president’s party. The Senate landscape is more favorable to Republicans, though several races in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas are expected to be closely watched.

Feehery argued that the political impact of the conflict ultimately will have less to do with uranium stockpiles, enrichment levels or the details of any final agreement than with whether voters feel economically secure.

 According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%. (Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

«They don’t care about that,» Feehery said when asked about the substance of a potential deal. «From the voters’ minds, they’re not worried about far-flung issues. They’re worried about the economy at home.»

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«George H. W. Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and his approval ratings were around 91%, and he lost the next election,» Feehery said.

Even if a diplomatic breakthrough comes in the coming weeks, Americans may not see immediate relief at the pump.

Smith said the U.S. has been insulated from the worst supply disruptions because of its own domestic production, but the country is increasingly serving as an energy supplier to regions cut off from Middle Eastern flows.

More recently, Trump has expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they had become «very boring» and that he «couldn’t care less» if the talks collapsed because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would «be dropping like a rock» in the near future and maintaining that a deal remains possible. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

«We’re likely going to be seeing higher prices coming through in the U.S. because of that because, you know, we’re getting to a scarcity issue,» Smith said.

As Asian countries replace lost Middle Eastern crude and Europe seeks alternative sources of jet fuel, overseas buyers are increasingly competing for American energy exports, he said.

«Countries outside of the U.S. are bidding up U.S. prices,» Smith said.

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For Republicans, the concern is that the economic fallout could outlast the conflict itself.

«Even if this were all over tomorrow, prices won’t immediately come back to normal and if or when they do, voters don’t get a refund from the high bills they’ve already paid,» Heye said.

Democracia y crecimiento

El candidato Roberto Sánchez. Foto Reuters

Senate Republicans managed to stitch together a unified front to advance President Donald Trump’s roughly $70 billion immigration enforcement package, but divisions over the president’s agenda were laid bare after a marathon day of votes. 

Passage of the budget reconciliation package geared toward funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol for the next three and a half years closes a long, drawn out chapter in the Senate that began during the longest shutdown in history. 

It’s a point that Senate Republicans tried to return to throughout the day, reiterating that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Democrats had forced their hands after refusing to fund immigration operations without a plethora of reforms. 

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«Democrats would not agree to anything, and eventually they walked away altogether, presumably because they thought that it would serve them better to have an issue for November,» Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said.

But the day, and preceding weeks, were dominated by a growing rift between Senate Republicans and the Trump administration that threatened to blow up the process altogether. 

First, it was the inclusion of $1 billion in funding for security upgrades to Trump’s ballroom, which was later stripped out. 

Then, it was the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) announcement that a nearly $2 billion «anti-weaponization» fund was being launched to allow people who felt targeted by the government to make a claim from the pot of taxpayer money.

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Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Chairman Bill Cassidy questions National Institutes of Health Director Jayanta Bhattacharya during a hearing at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 3, 2026. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Several Senate Republicans worried that the money could be accessed by Jan. 6, 2021, rioters who were convicted of assaulting police.

Schumer and Democrats leaned into that open wound and spent much of the marathon, «vote-a-rama» vote series trying to spell a permanent end to the fund, despite acting Attorney General Todd Blanche vowing that the administration would no longer pursue it. 

«Do we believe that Donald Trump, who has lied to us day in and day out, do we believe that he will be able to resist getting his sticky fingers in the slush fund when it would benefit himself and his family? No way, no way,» Schumer said.

GOP LEVERAGES ICE FUNDING PACKAGE TO MAKE TRUMP’S CONTROVERSIAL $2B FUND ‘NEVER EXIST’ 

Many of the amendments pushed by Democrats placed Republicans in tough bids for reelection, Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, Jon Husted, R-Ohio, and Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, into politically challenging positions. 

Republicans tried to kill it, too, causing tensions on the Senate floor to rise. 

«It’s not that tense,» Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said. «I mean, I’ve seen worse. Nobody’s stabbed anybody yet.»

Still, the process nearly came to a grinding halt because of the fund at the start of the marathon vote series when Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and others wanted to ensure that GOP attempts to end the fund would get a vote, too. 

«I just wanted to optimize the chances of success,» Cassidy said of the delay. 

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Ultimately, despite a dozen Republicans voting for Sen. Thom Tillis’, R-N.C., amendment, and X voting for Cassidy’s, all attempts to thwart future bids to revive the fund failed. 

The ballroom also came back into the picture when six Republicans joined Senate Democrats to prevent construction on the colossal structure from going forward without congressional approval.

Then there was an attempt by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., to attach the SAVE America Act to the reconciliation package, which met Republican resistance and ultimately failed, too. 

The package now heads to the House, where Republicans are expected to pass it by the end of the week.