INTERNACIONAL
Obama Presidential Center’s $470M safety net under scrutiny as subcontractors say they’re owed millions

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Concern is mounting that taxpayers could be left holding the bag if the Obama Presidential Center runs into financial trouble, as the foundation behind it has yet to establish a promised $470 million safety net to guard against a public bailout.
The scrutiny comes as a Fox News Digital investigation found multiple contractors and subcontractors claiming losses ranging from hundreds of thousands of dollars to millions on the project, with some alleging they remain locked in payment disputes and face financial ruin just days before the center’s grand opening.
Under its agreement with the city, the Obama Foundation pledged to create the fund, known as an endowment, as part of its 99-year deal to take control of the publicly owned 19.3-acre section of Jackson Park for a one-time payment of just $10.
Fox News Digital previously reported that the foundation had deposited just $1 million into the reserve fund in 2021 and that the balance remained largely unchanged in its most recent publicly available filings.
A split image shows the Obama Presidential Center in Jackson Park on Chicago’s South Side and former President Barack Obama. Questions have been raised about the center’s endowment funding and long-term financial safeguards as the project prepares to open. (Fox News Flight Team; Angelina Katsanis-Pool/Getty Images)
VALERIE JARRETT EARNED $740K AS OBAMA INSIDERS FILLED TOP ROLES DURING $850M PRESIDENTIAL CENTER BUILD
Concerns about the center’s financial state have raged for years, especially since construction delays and costs have ballooned from an original estimate of roughly $330 million to at least $850 million based on 2021 figures. An updated final projected cost has not been made public.
Endowment concerns
«One of their core promises was they were supposed to create an endowment as basically an insurance policy so the taxpayers wouldn’t get stuck with the bill,» Illinois GOP Chair Robert Grogan told Fox News Digital outside the center last week as worker vehicles entered and exited the center.
«They promised hundreds of millions of dollars for it. It’s still sitting at the $1 million mark [where it stood] when they opened it up. So I don’t believe that they’ve kept that promise.»
The contractor disputes have renewed concern of the endowment because critics argue the fund was intended to serve as a backstop if the project ever encountered financial distress. The Obama Foundation disputes suggestions that taxpayers face exposure and said the project is funded through private contributions.
Grogan said reports that contractors and subcontractors remain locked in payment disputes make the largely unfunded reserve even more problematic.
«The fact that they have created this probably unsustainable edifice to an ego and then, eventually, if it goes under, who’s going to be caught with the bill time and time again? It’s the taxpayers of the city, citizens of Chicago and the state of Illinois.»

A «Bring Change Home» banner is displayed outside the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago. (Michael Dorgan/Fox News Digital)
BUREAUCRATS HIDE TRUE PRICE OF OBAMA PRESIDENTIAL CENTER AS TAXPAYERS HIT WITH INFRASTRUCTURE BILL
Richard Epstein, a New York University law professor who has spent years challenging the project in court, said the reserve fund was intended to protect against exactly this type of uncertainty.
«The whole point of an endowment is to fund future expenses,» Epstein told Fox News Digital, adding that the endowment acts as a financial backup if future fundraising falls short.
«If the endowment hasn’t been filled, the building [could] fall into neglect, it then becomes a safety risk, and it turns out that nobody’s going to pay the bill,» Epstein said. «The city therefore, is going to have to assume additional obligations to make sure that thing is kept in place.»
Grogan said reports that contractors remain unpaid only reinforce the need for closer scrutiny and called for an investigation if allegations that subcontractors were left holding the bag prove accurate.
Subcontractor disputes raise new questions
A Fox News Digital investigation identified multiple construction firms claiming losses ranging from hundreds of thousands of dollars to tens of millions.
Outside the center last week, Adamson Plumbing President Mike Owen provided company spreadsheets to Fox News Digital, which he said showed that his firm is nearly $4 million in the red. He said that unnecessary rework, delays and more than 100 change-order requests left his company absorbing millions of dollars in additional costs.
In addition, Omar Shareef, the president of the African American Contractors Association, told Fox News Digital outside the center last Saturday that several Black-owned contractors are also in financial difficulty due to the project.

Mike Owen, president and owner of Adamson Plumbing, stands outside the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago. (Michael Dorgan/Fox News Digital)
The claims raise fresh worries about the center’s long-term financial sustainability because an endowment is intended to provide a permanent source of income that can help fund future operations and cushion against financial stress. Endowments are typically invested, with a portion of the earnings used to support an institution over time.
The Obama Foundation told Fox News Digital that it is in compliance with its agreement with the city, noting that the pact required the creation of an endowment but did not specify a dollar target.
OBAMA PRESIDENTIAL CENTER DEPOSITS JUST $1M INTO $470M RESERVE FUND AIMED TO PROTECT TAXPAYERS
The foundation said the Obama Presidential Center is «fully funded» and that it plans to make «significant investments» in the endowment in the coming years.
«On the eve of our Grand Opening celebrations, we are pleased to reiterate that the Obama Presidential Center is fully funded with generous private contributions,» the Obama Foundation said in a statement.
The $470 million figure emerged during public discussions surrounding the project and was later cited in the Obama Foundation’s 2020 annual report, which featured a fundraising chart stating:
«$470M of our fundraising goal will go toward seeding an endowment that will sustain Obama Foundation activities and the operations of the OPC for generations to come.»
The foundation previously estimated annual operating costs could reach approximately $40 million.

Illinois GOP Chair Robert Grogan stands outside the Obama Presidential Center in Chicago. Grogan criticized the Obama Foundation over its handling of the center’s endowment and raised concerns about potential taxpayer exposure if the project encounters future financial difficulties. (Michael Dorgan/Fox News Digital)
Nonprofit endowments are typically structured so that only a small percentage of the fund — often around 4% to 5% annually — is spent each year while the principal remains invested. The goal is to generate investment income that can help support operations over the long term without relying entirely on future fundraising. The Obama Presidential Center consists of a museum tower, digital library, athletic facilities, conference space and offices for the Obama Foundation on Chicago’s South Side. The Obama Foundation is overseeing its construction and will run its day-to-day future operations.
Epstein disputed the foundation’s interpretation, arguing that an endowment is intended to provide meaningful financial protection and that a promise to raise money in the future is not the same as having a funded endowment in place.
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«On their view, putting a penny in an endowment fund covers all the risks,» Epstein said.
«There has to be a pile of cash to fund any particular process and then ensure some kind of robustness against radical changes in the market.»
costs, fox news, barack obama, fund raising, fox news investigates, politics
INTERNACIONAL
Guerra comercial: qué cambia con los nuevos aranceles de Trump y por qué decenas de países reaccionaron contra la medida

La decisión de Estados Unidos de aplicar nuevos aranceles de entre el 10% y el 12,5% a importaciones provenientes de más de 80 países generó un fuerte rechazo global. La administración de Donald Trump justificó la medida por la supuesta falta de controles contra el trabajo forzoso en esos países, pero los gobiernos afectados salieron al cruce y anticiparon negociaciones o acciones diplomáticas.
Los gravámenes, que reemplazaron al arancel global temporal del 10% vencido el jueves, entraron en vigor a las 00:01 de este viernes 24.
La agenda comercial de Trump sufrió un amplio revés en febrero, cuando la Corte Suprema dictaminó que sus aranceles indiscriminados eran inconstitucionales, ya que solo el Congreso puede aprobar medidas de este tipo.
Por eso, para la nueva ronda de aranceles, el gobierno estadounidense se amparó en la Sección 301 de la Ley de Comercio de 1974, que habilita represalias ante prácticas comerciales consideradas injustas o discriminatorias. Según el representante comercial Jamieson Greer, la medida busca forzar la eliminación de prácticas sancionadas por la investigación sobre trabajo forzoso.
Según el anuncio de este jueves, las economías que han implementado una prohibición a la importación basada en trabajo forzoso o comprometidos a hacerlo tendrán el arancel del 10%. Entre ellos están Canadá, la Unión Europea, la India, el Reino Unido y la Argentina.
China, Japón, Corea del Sur y decenas de otros países recibirán el arancel del 12,5%. Sin embargo, algunos bienes que ya enfrentaban aranceles específicos -como el acero y el aluminio- que seguirán como estaban.
Brasil y Chile cuestionaron el argumento del trabajo forzoso
Brasil fue uno de los primeros en responder. El gobierno de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva acusó a Estados Unidos de usar el trabajo forzoso como excusa para reforzar el proteccionismo. En un comunicado, Brasil sostuvo que Washington “optó por manipular un tema tan importante” ante la falta de fundamentos legales internos para justificar la suba de aranceles. Brasil criticó las nuevas tarifas impuestas por Estados Unidos. (Foto: REUTERS/Adriano Machado).
La medida representa el segundo aumento arancelario contra Brasil en menos de una semana, tras el gravamen del 25% aplicado el miércoles por supuestas prácticas desleales. Según la Cámara Americana de Comercio para Brasil, la carga total sobre las exportaciones brasileñas llegará al 37,5%.
En la misma línea, Chile anunció que buscará quedar excluido de la lista de países afectados. La Cancillería chilena defendió la “sólida institucionalidad laboral” del país y consideró que la sanción no se condice con los antecedentes técnicos ni jurídicos presentados. El presidente de la Sociedad Nacional de Agricultura, Antonio Walker, advirtió que la medida afecta la competitividad y genera incertidumbre para productores y trabajadores.
Japón, Corea del Sur y Australia reclamaron respeto a los acuerdos vigentes
En Japón, el portavoz gubernamental Minoru Kihara calificó la decisión de “lamentable” y recordó que la industria nipona cumple con las normas internacionales. Kihara subrayó que el acuerdo bilateral firmado en 2025 fijó un arancel del 15% para la mayoría de las importaciones japonesas a cambio de inversiones por 550.000 millones de dólares en Estados Unidos.

El vocero japonés Minoru Kihara calificó como «lamentable» la decisión de Estados Unidos. (Foto: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon).
Corea del Sur también pidió mantener el entendimiento comercial alcanzado con Washington. La oficina presidencial informó que el gobierno “planea mantener estrechas consultas” para garantizar el arancel del 15% pactado. El Ministerio de Comercio surcoreano aseguró que las autoridades estadounidenses reafirmaron su compromiso con el acuerdo vigente.
Desde Australia, el ministro de Comercio Don Farrell reclamó la eliminación de los nuevos gravámenes y sostuvo que son “injustificados” y “incompatibles” con el acuerdo de libre comercio. Farrell destacó que Australia cuenta con “algunas de las medidas más sólidas del mundo” para combatir el trabajo forzoso y la esclavitud moderna.
México, Nueva Zelanda, Filipinas, Canadá y Panamá: distintas respuestas ante la decisión de Trump
México informó que el Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC) permitió evitar el impacto de las nuevas tarifas: el 85% de las exportaciones mexicanas seguirá ingresando con arancel cero, mientras el resto mantendrá el 10% previo.
En Nueva Zelanda, el primer ministro Christopher Luxon rechazó la medida y cuestionó la falta de pruebas sobre trabajo forzoso. “Los aranceles no son el camino; aumentan los costos y la incertidumbre para las empresas”, afirmó en la red social X.
La Cámara de Comercio e Industria de Filipinas expresó preocupación por la nueva tarifa del 12,5%. Su presidente, George Barcelon, consideró que la medida hará menos competitivas a las industrias y calificó de “muy poco claros” los argumentos sobre trabajo infantil. La secretaria de Comercio, Christina Roque, defendió la política nacional contra el trabajo forzoso.
En Canadá, el primer ministro Mark Carney confirmó que su gobierno intensificó las negociaciones con Washington para evitar la entrada en vigor, el 19 de agosto, de un arancel del 50% sobre productos canadienses. Carney advirtió que “todo está sobre la mesa” y que Ottawa comparte el objetivo de impedir el ingreso de bienes producidos con trabajo forzoso.
Por su parte, Panamá celebró haber quedado excluida de la nueva lista. El ministro de Comercio e Industrias, Julio Moltó, destacó que la exclusión reafirma la relación de confianza y cooperación con Estados Unidos.
Estados Unidos, aranceles, guerra comercial
INTERNACIONAL
Romanian F-16 shoots down drone after airspace breach, marking first for NATO ally

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A Romanian F-16 fighter jet shot down a drone that entered the country’s airspace without authorization Friday, marking the first time the NATO member has intercepted and destroyed a drone inside its national airspace, authorities said.
Romanian officials have not yet identified the drone’s origin or purpose. Romania’s army chief said pilots described it as appearing to be a Shahed-type drone, Reuters reported, the Iran-designed attack drone widely used by Russia against Ukraine.
The incident carries direct implications for the U.S. and its NATO allies, as repeated airspace breaches along the alliance’s eastern flank have fueled concerns that Russia’s war in Ukraine could spill across NATO borders. Romania, which borders Ukraine, has reported dozens of drone incursions or debris incidents since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu said the interception took place over an unpopulated area in Buzău County.
REPORT WARNS RUSSIA USING SHADOW FLEET TO PROBE NATO DRONE DEFENSES
An F-16 fighter jet takes part in the NATO Air Shielding exercise near the air base in Lask, central Poland, Oct. 12, 2022. (Radoslaw Jozwiak/AFP via Getty Images)
«Our borders and our sovereignty are non-negotiable, and our military and NATO air police will continue to monitor the land border, the Danube and the Black Sea, as our military frequently identifies risks,» Țoiu told Fox News Digital.
«The impact area and the drone debris are currently being analyzed, but the pattern is consistent with prior confirmed Russian drone flights during the numerous illegal attacks against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on Romania’s border,» she added.
Țoiu said Romania and NATO would continue to defend allied territory.
«NATO works, and we plan to be even stronger with the decisions on air defense and budget allocation from The Hague and Ankara summits,» she said. «The path toward increased security is the path toward peace at Romania’s border. We will defend our citizens and we will continue to invest in protecting Romanian and Allied territory.»
THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT AMERICAN WEAPONS SYSTEMS NATO IS EAGER TO HAVE

Explosion following what Romania’s defense ministry says was a detonation of Russian drone fragments found in a location given as near Rachelu village, Romania, in this screengrab taken from a handout video released June 30, 2026. (Romanian Defence Ministry/Handout via Reuters)
Țoiu previously told Fox News Digital July 2 that Russian drones had been detected inside Ukraine roughly 19 miles from Romania’s border, prompting two Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon jets operating from Romania’s 86th Air Base in Fetești to scramble under NATO’s Enhanced Air Policing mission. A Romanian Air Force IAR 330 Puma helicopter was also deployed, she said at the time.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan and Defense Minister Radu Miruță reaffirmed the country’s commitment to protecting its airspace and investing in modern air-defense and anti-drone capabilities, according to Țoiu.
The incident underscores the growing danger along NATO’s eastern flank as Russia continues strikes across Ukraine and Kyiv increasingly targets Russian military and energy infrastructure deeper inside Russia.
RUSSIA UNLEASHES NEARLY 600 MISSILES AND DRONES ON KYIV IN DEADLIEST STRIKE SINCE MAY

Emergency employees work at the site of a Russian missile strikes, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv region, July 24, 2026. (Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Handout via Reuters)
The drone shootdown came as Ukraine reported deadly Russian strikes in the Kyiv region and Slovyansk.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a rescue operation was underway in the Kyiv region after a Russian missile strike killed six people and wounded dozens. Reuters later reported that Ukrainian officials and industry representatives said the strike killed 10 people and injured close to 100 at a site where a defense industry event was being held.
«There were also casualties in Slovyansk following guided aerial bomb strikes,» Zelenskyy said. «Five people were killed. My condolences to their families. Nine others were injured. The Russians damaged ordinary homes, the consulate building, and vehicles.»
Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said Latvia’s honorary consulate building in Slovyansk, in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, was destroyed Friday morning in a Russian attack involving a KAB-250 guided aerial bomb, according to information provided by Ukrainian authorities.
Braže said Latvia’s honorary consul, Oleksandr Pavenko, was not injured, but two consulate staff members were wounded. She informed European Union and NATO foreign ministers and international organizations about the incident, while Latvia summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires and delivered a note of protest.
«Russia will be held accountable for this and other violations of international law,» Latvia’s Foreign Ministry said. «All war crimes committed by Russia must be thoroughly investigated, and those responsible must be brought to justice.»
Zelenskyy called the strikes «brutal attacks on civilians» and again pressed Ukraine’s partners for air-defense support.
«Interceptors for Patriot systems are the number one priority,» he said.
Ukraine also said its forces had struck one of Russia’s key military enterprises in Kirov, which Zelenskyy said supplies components for Russian aircraft and missile systems used in attacks on Ukrainian cities. Zelenskyy said Ukraine had also hit an oil facility nearly 840 miles away and that operations against Russian logistics supplying drone components, navigation equipment and military gear remained underway. Ukrainian outlet UNN reported that Zelenskyy confirmed the Kirov strike and the long-range strike on the oil facility.
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Smoke rises from Wildberries facility, from what the Ukrainian authorities say was following a drone attack, in Shushary, Pushkinsky District, St. Petersburg, Russia July 24, 2026 in this screen grab taken from a social media video. (Social media/via Reuters)
The Security Council is expected to hold an emergency meeting on Ukraine Monday at 10 a.m., as requested by Ukraine, according to a United Nations schedule viewed by Fox News Digital. The meeting comes after Kyiv has repeatedly urged the international community to respond more forcefully to Russia’s attacks on civilians and infrastructure.
The back-and-forth comes as Kyiv is trying to show battlefield momentum despite continued Russian missile and drone attacks.
Outgoing Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Ukraine had recaptured 270 square miles of territory in 2026 and was handing over to his successor «an army that is not only holding the defence but is also on the offensive,» Reuters reported Wednesday.
Fox News Digital reached out to the Russian defense ministry but didn’t receive a response in time for publication.
Reuters contributed to this report.
nato, ukraine, drones, world, air force, russia
INTERNACIONAL
Trump says Iran will pay — what it takes to end the war remains unclear

Trump warns Iran of US retaliation
President Donald Trump delivers a strong warning to Iran, stating the U.S. will bomb bridges or power plants if Iranian forces attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This follows ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites.
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Nearly five months after launching a sweeping campaign against Iran’s nuclear, missile, naval and proxy capabilities, the Trump administration is now fighting to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations have yet to produce a permanent settlement.
The administration says its renewed strikes have a clear immediate objective: «making Iran pay.» Less clear is what Iran must do to end the strikes — or what conditions would allow the U.S. to step back from a growing military commitment in the region.
President Donald Trump has threatened to expand the campaign to Iran’s nuclear sites, bridges, power plants and other infrastructure.
ARMY IDS 2 VICTIMS KILLED IN JORDAN AIR BASE ATTACK; TRUMP: IRAN WILL PAY ‘MANY TIMES OVER’
In response to questioning on the end goals in Iran, a U.S. official said: «Right now, the President is focused on making Iran pay for their violations of the MOU and their continued acts of terrorism in the Strait of Hormuz,» referring to the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.
«In addition, the President will make Iran pay for the recent deaths of U.S. soldiers,» the official said.
The Trump administration says its renewed strikes have a clear immediate objective: «making Iran pay.» (Morteza Akhoundi via Getty Image)
«These devastating blows will continue until the President deems otherwise, but talks between our countries are continuing,» the official said. «President Trump has all of the cards and all options at his disposal, and Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.»
The response defined the immediate campaign as punishment for Iran’s actions but did not identify any condition Tehran could meet to halt the strikes beyond Trump deciding that the punishment had been sufficient. Follow-up questioning by Fox News Digital went unanswered.
STEVE FORBES URGES TRUMP TO KEEP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPEN AT ALL COSTS
When Trump launched its military Operation Epic Fury mission Feb. 28, the White House laid out four sweeping objectives: preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, destroying its ballistic missiles and production capacity, annihilating its navy and severing its support for terrorist proxies.
The administration declared those military objectives achieved in April. But Iran retained enough capability to close the Strait of Hormuz, attack commercial shipping and target U.S. forces and allies across the region.
The administration’s immediate focus is now the strait. U.S. Central Command said Thursday that its latest strikes targeted Iranian maritime capabilities, coastal surveillance sites, air defenses and missile and drone facilities to degrade Tehran’s ability to attack commercial vessels.
TRUMP SEEKS $672M TO STOP IRANIAN NUKES AS NEGOTIATORS WEIGH FATE OF URANIUM STOCKPILE
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the current campaign as an effort to prevent Iran from establishing a «dangerous precedent» by controlling an international waterway, while maintaining that Washington remains open to diplomacy. He said Iran must stop attacking commercial ships and reopen the strait before the United States changes its behavior.

Mourners gather around a vehicle transporting the coffin of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28 in Israeli and U.S. airstrikes, and coffins of his family members, on the day of his burial, in a culmination of a mass funeral, in Mashhad, Iran, July 9, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency, via REUTERS)
«Their behavior has to change in order for ours to change,» Rubio said Sunday.
Yet recent strikes have expanded beyond Iran’s maritime capabilities to include bridges and other infrastructure as Trump continues threatening nuclear facilities, raising new questions about how the widening target set fits into the administration’s broader strategy.
Meanwhile, the final nuclear agreement envisioned under the June memorandum of understanding has not materialized, even as the White House says talks between Washington and Iran are continuing. The memorandum had envisioned an agreement within 60 days, but renewed fighting has left its timing and prospects uncertain.
Trump has continued threatening Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility. But he has also appeared to soften one of the administration’s original demands, saying in June that Iran could retain some ballistic missiles in proportion to neighboring countries.
The administration has not clarified whether the original missile objective was achieved, relaxed as part of negotiations or remains part of a future settlement, nor whether ending Iran’s support for proxies remains a condition for victory.
Publicly, the renewed campaign has a clear immediate military task — protecting shipping and preventing Iran from asserting control over Hormuz — but the connection between that mission, the stalled nuclear process and Trump’s threats to widen the war remains unexplained.
Eighteen U.S. service members have been killed since the war began, while Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told lawmakers Tuesday that the campaign has cost an estimated $37.5 billion.
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, who served as a senior strategy official in the first Trump White House, argued that the campaign can still be understood around one overriding objective.
«I think the end goal is to prevent them from having a nuclear weapon,» Spalding told Fox News Digital. «The goal is very clear. It is: How do you want to go about getting to those goals, and then what are you willing to pay to achieve them? That’s the decision that has to be made.»

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the current campaign as an effort to prevent Iran from establishing a «dangerous precedent» by controlling an international waterway, while maintaining that Washington remains open to diplomacy. (Brendan SMIALOWSKI / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
On Hormuz, Spalding predicted that protecting commercial shipping could require prolonged U.S. presence, comparing it to Operations Northern and Southern Watch, the yearslong U.S.-led enforcement of no-fly zones over Iraq.
«I don’t think that we’re leaving the area anytime soon,» Spalding said.
He described that potential mission as «almost an airborne and seaborne occupation of the strait and the Gulf» intended to preserve the free flow of international shipping.
Such a mission could give the current strikes a defined military purpose, but it would not necessarily resolve the nuclear negotiations, eliminate Iran’s remaining leverage or produce a political settlement. It could instead leave American forces enforcing access to Hormuz for an extended period while the broader conflict remains unresolved.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said the administration’s changing public emphasis reflects the absence of a coherent strategy connecting its military actions to an achievable end state.
«The administration does not seem to have a clear strategy,» Vaez told Fox News Digital. «It’s been a moving goalpost.»
Vaez also argued that the conflict has given Iran a potent new form of leverage: the demonstrated ability to choke shipping through Hormuz and impose economic pain on the United States. He described Iran’s control over the strait as a «weapon of mass destruction.»
«For more than four decades, the United States has been able to coerce the Iranian regime economically,» Vaez said. «The Iranians never had the possibility of retaliating in kind, of putting pressure on the pocketbook of every American citizen.»
The U.S. is now trying to inflict enough pain on Iran that it abandons its insistence on controlling the strait, according to Vaez. But Iran views that control as its most valuable remaining source of leverage and one it cannot surrender without weakening its position in any future negotiations, he argued.

President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026. (The White House via X Account/Anadolu via Getty Images/Contributor/Getty Images)
«We are in a zero-sum situation,» Vaez said. «The U.S. is trying to remove a tool of leverage from the hands of the Iranians that they believe is essential to their survival.»
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Although the United States retains overwhelming military superiority, Vaez argued that neither side has been able to deliver a decisive blow. Washington can continue inflicting damage, he said, while Tehran has a greater willingness to absorb it because it views the conflict as a struggle for the regime’s survival.
«There is no military solution to resolving the problem in the strait,» Vaez said. «After much more death and destruction, I think both sides would return to the same logic that led them to agree to the MOU in the first place—which is that neither side is really able to deliver a knockout blow to the other.»
iran, war with iran, donald trump, middle east
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