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Russia preparing hybrid attacks on NATO’s eastern flank, intelligence warns

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Latvian intelligence is warning that Russia is preparing possible military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drones, missiles or other hybrid attacks, in an effort to pressure NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine. 

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«We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland — not a conventional war, because Russia is not capable of that right now, but hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems,» Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital.

The most immediate concern, according to Latvian intelligence, is not that Moscow is ready for a full-scale war with NATO, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin could miscalculate because the surrounding institutions are feeding him the version of reality he wants to hear.

The Baltic states and Poland are NATO allies, meaning a Russian provocation there could quickly test America’s treaty commitments and risk a broader confrontation. It also comes as Washington and its allies weigh how far to go in supporting Ukraine and tightening sanctions on Moscow. 

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Latvian intelligence argues that Putin is not only looking for ways to pressure NATO countries to back off Ukraine, but may also be receiving distorted assessments from inside his own system — raising the risk that Russia could misjudge Western resolve.

Latvian intelligence is warning that Russia is preparing possible military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drones, missiles or other hybrid attacks.  (Efrat Lachter)

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«The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions,» Latvian intelligence said.

«We see more and more signs that Putin wants to receive only positive news. He is isolated, and that makes decision-making even more problematic as decisions are not based on the real situation,» Latvian intelligence added.

The Latvian warning tracks with concerns raised by Polish officials during Fox News Digital reporting in June in Poland, where officials described Russia’s hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank as already underway. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki pointed to assassinations, drone activity, cyberattacks and attacks on critical infrastructure on NATO territory, including what he described as a Russian-instigated cyberattack on Polish energy infrastructure intended «to black out part of Poland.» 

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Amb. Krzysztof Olendzki also described the Belarus border as part of a Russian and Belarusian campaign to weaponize illegal migration against NATO countries.

Latvian intelligence also assessed that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia, despite Moscow’s public claims that it has absorbed the pressure.

«Russia says publicly that sanctions do not matter, but its own internal assessments show that sanctions are biting,» Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital. «They may not change Putin’s mindset, but they limit Russia’s financial resources and thus opportunities and force to make difficult choices regarding recruitment, military spending, and pressure on businesses. Its war economy is a crumbling ‘house of cards.’»

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Vladimir Putin tours a naval destroyer during an official visit to a military base.

Latvian intelligence also assessed that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia, despite Moscow’s public claims that it has absorbed the pressure.  (Sasha Mordovets/Getty)

The assessment comes as Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, known as SAB, released a public report detailing how Russia is intensifying «lawfare» against the West — using courts, legal claims and international institutions to pressure Western governments, weaken support for Ukraine and create possible justification for more aggressive actions.

The report outlines Russian efforts to study Iran’s experience challenging Western sanctions through international legal mechanisms. 

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Russian experts have analyzed Iran’s 2016 case against the United States at the International Court of Justice and are looking for ways to adapt similar tactics against Western countries, according to the Constitution Protection Bureau. 

«If you want to push Russia toward a peace deal that is acceptable to Ukraine and the West, sanctions are the right mechanism,» Latvian intelligence said. «We need more international pressure on Russia through sanctions.»

US ALLIES ACCUSE RUSSIA OF ‘ESCALATING HYBRID ACTIVITIES’ AGAINST NATO, EU NATIONS AFTER DATA CABLES SEVERED

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U.S. Army Soldiers with 9th Brigade Engineer Battalion constructing an improvised door handle charge in Adazi, Latvia

The assessment comes as Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, known as SAB, released a public report detailing how Russia is intensifying «lawfare» against the West.  (Capt. H. Howey/U.S. Army)

The Constitution Protection Bureau also warns that Russia has prepared a complaint against the Baltic States at the U.N.’s International Court of Justice, formally accusing them of discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers. Latvian intelligence believes the legal campaign is not only about the courtroom, but about building a narrative Moscow could later use as a pretext for action.

«Russia believes the Baltic States are governed by pro-American elites who are disconnected from their own people. They made a similar mistake about Ukraine before the invasion, which is why this perception worries us,» Latvian intelligence said.

The Constitution Protection Bureau report argues that Russia is trying to turn propaganda into legal and political action. It describes Moscow’s planned complaint as relying on a «highly manipulative approach» to international law, including selective interpretations of international norms and what the report calls «imagined evidence» of alleged discrimination.

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NATO drills

«Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia,» its intelligence said.  (Burak Akbulut/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The concern is that Russia could use those claims to justify pressure, intimidation or hybrid operations — the same broad logic Moscow used when it claimed it was acting to protect Donbas residents before invading Ukraine.

«Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia,» its intelligence said. «We are not concerned about a full-scale invasion right now. Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks.»

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The Russian government did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.



vladimir putin, nato, ukraine, sanctions, russia

INTERNACIONAL

US official says JD Vance made ‘great progress’ in Iran talks, calls snub reports ‘foreign propaganda’

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FIRST ON FOX: A U.S. official involved with the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations said that Vice President JD Vance made «great progress» in the talks, adding that «foreign propaganda» spread a falsehood that the prime minister of Qatar snubbed Vance.

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The U.S. official told Fox News Digital that Iranian state media originated reports of Vance being snubbed by the Qatari prime minister and Iranian leadership threatening to walk away from the negotiating table.

«The vice president and the U.S. delegation departed Switzerland today after making great progress and engaging in historic talks that lasted well into the late hours over the weekend,» a U.S. official present at the talks told Fox News Digital. «The negotiations set the framework for continued talks so that the unmatched efforts of the president can lead to a deal that’s best for the American people.»

«Those parroting foreign propaganda serve no one except the bad faith actors that want to derail negotiations,» the official added.

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IRAN’S UNPRECEDENTED ‘WHOLE-REGIME’ DELEGATION AT US DEAL TALKS SIGNALS ONE GOAL: EXPERT

Vice President JD Vance speaks to members of the media after the U.S. and Iran held high-level talks aimed at advancing a deal to end the Middle East conflict at the Lake Lucerne Summit, near Lake Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 22, 2026. (Nathan Howard / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

As Vance and White House officials deliberated a peace agreement at the Bürgenstock resort on Lake Lucerne in Switzerland, a CBS poll on Sunday showed that an overwhelming 78% of Americans say that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran should come to an end.

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Reports from Iranian state media created confusion about the progress of the peace talks in Switzerland, with critics alleging the Qataris snubbed Vance after Qatar’s prime minister and chief negotiator, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, walked past Vance and warmly greeted Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif instead. 

«The U.S. delegation had just spent hours with the Qataris and there was no need to re-greet someone having just spent hours with,» a U.S. official said. «The decision to give statements together before the meeting was done impromptu, which is why it wasn’t a staged greeting.»

Vice President JD Vance standing next to an image of a missile and the Iranian flag.

Vice President JD Vance said the Iranians have agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into their country. (Spencer Platt/AFP via Getty Images)

TRUMP AGAIN SAYS DEAL IS CLOSE, THEN CONFIRMS A LAST-MINUTE AGREEMENT WITH IRAN, BUT DETAILS STILL SECRET

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In an interview today with Qatar’s official media outlet, Al Jazeera, Al Thani denied snubbing Vance, saying he had just spent hours with Vance and hadn’t yet greeted Sharif. He blamed the media for misrepresenting the encounter. «And they just made the issue too big,» he said.

Prospects of a peace agreement have already shown signs of life in the U.S., even without a final deal. The New York Times reported oil prices dipping on Monday amid expectations Vance would secure peace during the talks in Switzerland. 

Critics of Vance have been vocal in the media about the vice president’s handling of the talks, echoing a sentiment among protesters that have been supporting the Islamic Republic of Iran since the onset of hostilities earlier this year. Some critics allege that Vance is surrendering to the Iranians and that the Iranians are getting more out of the peace deal than the U.S.

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U.S. delegation arriving in Switzerland.

The U.S. delegation, including Steve Witkoff, JD Vance and Jared Kushner, arrived in Switzerland on Sunday. (Nathan Howard/Pool/REUTERS)

FAR-LEFT NETWORK ACTIVATES TO FLY IRAN’S FLAG OVER AMERICA IN VICTORY AND WAGE A ‘SMOKELESS WAR’ ON THE US

A Fox News Digital investigation found that a network of pro-communist groups funded by Neville Roy Singham, an American-born tech tycoon living in China, supporting the Chinese Communist Party and allies, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been behind most of the protests that have taken place. 

In April, nonprofits in Singham’s network mobilized to protest President Donald Trump’s «criminal war,» painting blood on their hands to symbolize what they called the «genocidal threats» the administration was making against Iran. 

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The Party for Socialism and Liberation, a self-declared pro-China communist group, communicated to its followers through its propaganda platform, «Liberation News,» to «keep up the pressure» in combatting the war.

A woman protesting the war with Iran.

Medea Benjamin (right) and Olivia DiNucci (center) of CodePink protest against the U.S. war in Iran. (Fox News Digital)

VANCE SAYS US-IRAN TALKS END WITHOUT DEAL AFTER 21 HOURS OF NEGOTIATIONS

In 2017, Singham married a co-founder of CodePink, Jodie Evans, and started pouring a documented $278 million into a network of groups that fuel anti-American protests in the United States, support the People’s Republic of China and now back the Islamic Republic of Iran, a strategic partner of China and a major source of its oil imports.

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Despite the coordinated propaganda defending Iran, the administration has maintained its intention to rid Iran of nuclear capabilities. For more than three months, U.S.-Israeli forces have been fighting Iranian forces, a conflict which Americans have expressed concerns about. 

Vance’s trip to Switzerland marks his second attempt to bring the conflict to an end. In April, he traveled to Islamabad, Pakistan, alongside Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Special Peace Envoy Jared Kushner to negotiate peace. The talks failed and Vance returned home, but he has remained a key figure in finalizing a ceasefire.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance walking with Pakistan's Chief of Defence Forces Asim Munir and Deputy Prime Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar in Islamabad.

Vice President JD Vance walks with Pakistan’s Chief of Defense Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir and Deputy Prime Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar after arriving for talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

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His involvement with the negotiations has also led to a surge in bettors placing wagers on the vice president winning the presidency in 2028.

In March, Kalshi showed Vance being beaten out for president in 2028 by both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and California Governor Gavin Newsom. Since Vance has been facilitating the peace deal this month, he surged to the top spot for the next presidential election cycle.

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INTERNACIONAL

Estados Unidos dice que las negociaciones con funcionarios de Irán sientan las bases para un acuerdo que ponga fin a guerra

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El vicepresidente de Estados Unidos, JD Vance, dijo que sus largas conversaciones con funcionarios iraníes en Suiza crearon una “buena base para un acuerdo final exitoso” mientras buscan poner fin a la guerra que Estados Unidos e Israel comenzaron a finales de febrero.

Vance y otros funcionarios estadounidenses afirmaron que hubo avances en múltiples frentes, incluida la creación de “mecanismos” para garantizar que el estrecho de Ormuz, una vía marítima vital para los embarques mundiales de hidrocarburos, permanezca abierto, y para abordar los combates entre Israel y la milicia de Hezbollah, en Líbano, donde un alto el fuego parecía mantenerse.

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Vance salió de Suiza mientras los equipos técnicos aún negociaban, y el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump elogió los esfuerzos para mantener abierto el estrecho y crear “un chorro de petróleo”.

“Nos está yendo muy bien con respecto al estrecho de Ormuz”, afirmó Trump desde la Casa Blanca. “Tenemos un estrecho abierto, y tenemos un país que nunca tendrá un arma nuclear”.

Irán cerró el estrecho de Ormuz después de que Estados Unidos e Israel lo atacaron el 28 de febrero, lo que hizo que los precios del combustible se dispararan en gran parte del mundo. Se suponía que el acuerdo provisional para poner fin a la guerra reabriría dicho canal. Decenas de barcos pasaron por ahí el fin de semana, aunque la ruta principal sigue minada y cerrada.

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Poco después de que Estados Unidos e Israel atacaron Irán en febrero, Hezbollah e Israel también comenzaron a combatir. La milicia libanesa disparó cohetes y drones contra el norte de Israel e Israel invadió el sur de Líbano. Irán ha insistido en que abordar los combates en Líbano es un componente crucial de cualquier acuerdo para poner fin al conflicto más amplio.

Irán señaló “un gran progreso” para poner fin a los combates en Líbano y calificó eso como la primera prueba real de las negociaciones.

En otros acontecimientos, el Departamento del Tesoro de Estados Unidos emitió una licencia de 60 días que exime de sanciones al petróleo iraní como parte del acuerdo provisional. En particular, la licencia permite que el petróleo iraní sea importado a Estados Unidos, que no ha importado cantidades significativas de petróleo iraní desde la década de 1990.

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También el lunes, el Departamento de Estado anunció que el secretario de Estado Marco Rubio viajaría esta semana a los Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Kuwait y Bahréin para discutir los últimos acontecimientos en Irán.

Trump no estuvo en Suiza, pero se hizo sentir en las conversaciones

El esfuerzo de mediación en Suiza comenzó el domingo y se alargó hasta la madrugada del lunes.

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“No hemos construido la casa, pero hemos sentado un buen cimiento para llegar a un buen lugar para el pueblo estadounidense”, declaró Vance ante periodistas después de las conversaciones iniciales con Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, presidente del Parlamento iraní.

Trump no asistió a la llamada “Cumbre del Lago de Lucerna”, pero su presencia ciertamente se hizo sentir. Las conversaciones se vieron sacudidas por declaraciones de Trump, quien, a miles de kilómetros de distancia, hizo comentarios que ofendieron a los iraníes.

Los medios estatales iraníes dijeron que las conversaciones se habían pausado tras la “publicación de un mensaje insultante por parte del presidente de Estados Unidos”. Posteriormente, las negociaciones continuaron.

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El presidente del Parlamento iraní y principal negociador, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf (izquierda), escucha al subsecretario del Consejo Supremo de Seguridad Nacional de Irán, Ali Bagheri Kani. Foto AP

Descongelar activos iraníes para comprar bienes estadounidenses

El vicepresidente también sugirió que Estados Unidos podría aceptar descongelar activos iraníes para compras de soja, maíz y trigo estadounidenses. Dijo que Jared Kushner, el yerno del presidente Trump y uno de los principales negociadores de Estados Unidos, tuvo la idea con funcionarios de Qatar.

Vance dijo que Qatar tendría aprobación sobre el proceso, y que el dinero iraní que sería accesible a medida que levantar las sanciones compren productos estadounidenses “en beneficio del pueblo iraní”.

Irán, que ha presionado para que se descongelen miles de millones de dólares en activos, no se ha pronunciado sobre la idea. Los activos fueron congelados hace años como parte de sanciones, restricciones bancarias y disputas legales impuestas por Estados Unidos y otros países.

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Continúan las conversaciones técnicas

En una declaración conjunta, los mediadores Pakistán y Qatar celebraron lo que calificaron de “progreso alentador”.

El acuerdo provisional para poner fin a los combates en Irán, firmado la semana pasada por los presidentes de Estados Unidos e Irán, establece un periodo de 60 días para que los negociadores aborden asuntos que incluyen el futuro del programa nuclear de Teherán, en medio de preocupaciones de que quiera utilizarlo con fines militares, una afirmación que Irán niega.

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Vance dijo que las conversaciones técnicas, que continuarían esta semana, son importantes. Los enviados Kushner y Steve Witkoff se están encargando de gran parte de los detalles técnicos.

Más barcos pasan por Ormuz

Mientras tanto, más barcos pasaron por el estrecho de Ormuz. Según la firma de datos y análisis Kpler hubo 71 tránsitos confirmados el fin de semana, con un pico de 35 cruces el sábado. Antes de la guerra, entre 100 y 130 embarcaciones pasaban por ahí cada día.

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Los barcos están evitando la ruta central para mantenerse alejados de las minas, eligiendo en su lugar usar la ruta norte más pequeña, que pasa por aguas iraníes, y la ruta sur, que pasa por aguas de Omán. En los mercados, los precios del petróleo en Estados Unidos bajaron más de 2% en las operaciones vespertinas del lunes para rondar los 74,66 dólares por barril.

El fin de semana, Trump dejó claro que estaba molesto por los comentarios públicos de Irán sobre el estrecho, que el ejército iraní dijo haber cerrado el sábado en respuesta a los continuos combates en Líbano. El Comando Central del ejército estadounidense cuestionó que Irán hubiera vuelto a cerrar el estrecho.

Antes de las conversaciones, el presidente iraní, Masoud Pezeshkian, había prometido “nunca retroceder del derecho a enriquecer uranio”, de acuerdo con los medios estatales.

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Más barcos pasaron por el estrecho de Ormuz. Según la firma de datos y análisis Kpler hubo 71 tránsitos confirmados el fin de semana, con un pico de 35 cruces el sábado. Foto Reuters

Trump dijo el domingo a Fox News en una entrevista telefónica que Pezeshkian debería cuidar lo que dice y también amenazó con apoderarse de Irán, según uno de los corresponsales del canal.

También publicó en redes sociales mientras los negociadores trabajaban: “Irán debe detener inmediatamente a sus bien pagados esbirros en Líbano. Si no lo hacen, volveremos a golpear a Irán muy duro, como lo hicimos la semana pasada, sólo que más duro”.

Los iraníes dicen que hubo avances en su tema principal

El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Irán, Abbas Araghchi, escribió en X que los mediadores lograron “un gran progreso para poner fin a la guerra en Líbano”. Pero dijo que la primera “prueba real” de las negociaciones sería si el mecanismo lograba detener los combates entre Israel y Hezbollah.

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Ni Israel ni Hezbollah son signatarios del acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán.

Pero hasta la noche del lunes en Oriente Medio, el alto el fuego entre Israel y Hezbollah parecía mantenerse.

“No hemos detectado trayectorias de ninguno de los dos lados desde ayer”, dijo Tilak Pokharel, portavoz de la fuerza de mantenimiento de la paz de la ONU en el sur de Líbano conocida como FPNUL. Pero continuaban las violaciones del espacio aéreo y los movimientos militares por parte de Israel, añadió Pokharel.

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Hezbollah tampoco ha anunciado ataques contra fuerzas israelíes desde el sábado. La pausa en los combates en Líbano es la más larga desde el estallido de la más reciente guerra entre Israel y Hezbollah el 2 de marzo.

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Trump-backed housing overhaul targeting Wall Street investors clears Senate

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The Senate advanced a massive, Trump-backed housing package that proponents say will prevent the U.S. from becoming a «nation of renters.» 

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The upper chamber sent the 21st Century Road to Housing Act to the House on Monday after months of delay. After the heads of the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee reached a deal last week, the package is on a glide path to President Donald Trump’s desk. 

It’s the first major push by Congress to address housing regulations in decades, and one Trump has been calling on lawmakers to complete as the midterm elections near. 

TRUMP-BACKED AFFORDABLE HOUSING OVERHAUL CLEARS SENATE, WHILE HOUSE GOP RAISES RED FLAGS

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The Senate advanced a massive, Trump-backed housing package geared toward lowering the costs of homes and supercharging the housing supply. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pitched it as legislation to prevent America from becoming a «nation of renters.» (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Protect Borrowers; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Loaded with nearly 60 different provisions, the package broadly tackles rolling back some permitting regulations, launches several pilot grant programs to build, repair and push affordable housing construction, and blocks investors from buying up housing stock — a key provision pushed by Trump.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of the architects of the package, said the legislation was «not the federal government big footing local government,» but instead the federal government laying out tweaks to current programs and policies that «over time will make housing more affordable.»

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«This is a housing package that will help increase supply and bring down costs,» Warren said. «One way is by beating back private equity, so they won’t invade your neighborhood, buy up all the houses, and turn America into a nation of renters.» 

Warren said that among several things, the package increases access to manufactured housing by changing the federal definition to open up for more units to be constructed, pre-approved plan books for local governments to quickly approve new construction, and the waiving of some environmental review regulations for the construction of new homes.

BIPARTISAN HOUSING PUSH ADVANCES, BUT TRUMP-BACKED INVESTOR BAN FACES RESISTANCE

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«It’s not just one piece that’s gonna solve a problem,» Warren said.
»It’s a whole lot of smaller pieces that push in the same direction that’s important.» 

The package also tries to turbocharge housing stock by tying federal grants and incentives sought by local governments to housing construction. And there are tweaks to mortgages, with a push for small-dollar mortgages at $100,000 and updates to lending standards for manufactured homes. 

Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, whose provision to establish pre-approved housing designs to speed up home construction made it into the package, said the legislation «sends a signal to state and local communities, to say, ‘Hey, guys, you really have to drive down the cost of housing, and you do that by not torturing homebuilders.’»

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TRUMP CAN SOLVE THE HOUSING CRISIS, BUT HE NEEDS TO GET TOUGH WITH STATES

Sen. Bernie Moreno speaking in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump and others

Sen. Bernie Moreno speaks as President Donald Trump hosts Republican lawmakers and auto executives in the Oval Office to announce changes to fuel economy standards on Dec. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

While there are several moving parts to the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, it does not tackle every facet of housing costs.

For instance, it does not allocate fresh federal funding for the issue, as Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., has lauded the package as being deficit neutral. Nor does it directly address rising costs of homeownership, given that much of the thrust is focused on building new homes and lowering the barrier of entry for Americans to get into a home. 

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And for some, it does not go far enough to address permitting issues. 

Sen. Alan Armstrong, R-Okla., argued that the «legislation as drafted fails to meaningfully address» the issues of housing costs.

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«Instead, this legislation makes a half-hearted attempt to waive minor environmental laws while failing to address the need for permitting reform at large,» Armstrong said. 

«Our permitting process deserves its own committed effort, and attaching weak slivers of those reforms to unrelated legislation undermines the work currently being done to pass comprehensive, meaningful permitting reform,» he said.

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