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Iran ‘miscalculating’ by betting on midterms after 3-hour talks, Trump officials warn

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NEW YORK — Trump officials say Iran is miscalculating if it believes rising prices and the midterm elections will weaken President Donald Trump’s hand in negotiations to end the nearly seven-month conflict.

The administration is projecting confidence that mounting economic pressure will push Tehran toward a deal, even after three hours of talks this week ended without an announced breakthrough.

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«The president holds all of the cards here,» State Department principal deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott told Digital in an on-camera interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.

Americans, meanwhile, are facing a mounting cost at home. The national average for regular gasoline reached $4.49 per gallon Friday, according to AAA, up from $3.16 a year ago. AAA said volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and high crude oil prices have driven the national average to its highest level ever recorded for this time of year.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged those costs Wednesday while arguing that allowing Iran to eventually obtain a nuclear weapon would carry a far greater price.

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THE TOP MOMENTS FROM IRAN PRESIDENT’S TENSE VISIT TO US SOIL AS WAR RAGES

«It comes at a price and at a cost, there’s no doubt about it,» Rubio told reporters. «But the cost of not doing something about it is substantially higher, especially for future generations.»

Trump himself laid out the stakes in stark terms during his address to the U.N. General Assembly Tuesday, presenting Tehran with a choice between reaching a deal that would allow Iran to rebuild or facing potentially devastating further U.S. action.

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«Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?» Trump said. «Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?»

But Trump predicted Tehran would ultimately choose a deal, arguing that Iranian leaders are waiting to see whether the November midterm elections weaken his position.

«They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election,» Trump said. «What they don’t realize is that I’m not running.»

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«I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran,» Trump added. «It doesn’t even enter my mind.»

A U.S. official told Digital Friday that discussions through mediators remained «positive and constructive,» but said the administration was in no hurry to reach an agreement.

«The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz, so we are not in a rush,» the official said, adding that nearly 40 million barrels of oil had transited the strait over the previous 48 hours. The official predicted oil and gas prices would fall back to pre-conflict levels as the U.S. continues to maintain control of the strait.

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Trump said U.S. officials held a «very good» three-hour meeting with Iranian officials Tuesday as part of a renewed diplomatic push to end the conflict. But Rubio cautioned Wednesday against characterizing the talks as a «major breakthrough,» saying they were largely a continuation of previous conversations.

«I think it was significant that at least there was a conversation,» Rubio said.

Rubio also said the administration would make public any «good outcomes or things to announce jointly» stemming from its diplomatic engagements. No such announcement immediately followed the Iran meeting.

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Iran has since put forward a proposal of its own. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran presented U.S. mediators with a seven-day plan this week that would restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the seven days if certain conditions are met, followed by renewed negotiations toward a broader agreement.

The proposal draws from the memorandum of understanding Trump and Iran reached in June. A mediator told CBS News the latest discussions were positive but remained in their early stages.

The stakes in Hormuz remain high. Commercial traffic through the critical oil chokepoint has been sharply disrupted during the conflict, although U.S. officials say the amount of oil moving through the strait is increasing.

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TRUMP BETS ECONOMIC PRESSURE CAN SQUEEZE IRAN AS REGIME’S OWN FAILURES DEEPEN THE PAIN

«The diplomatic door is always open. The president is a deal maker,» Pigott said. «But he’s going to see the fundamental principle that they cannot have a nuclear weapon accomplished one way or another.»

Pigott pointed to growing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the economic pressure Washington has imposed on Tehran as evidence that the balance remains in Trump’s favor.

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«We are seeing oil move [through] the Strait of Hormuz, increasing every single day,» Pigott said. «We’re seeing the devastating effects on the Iranian regime from economic [actions]. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being denied to the regime through this blockade that we’re seeing.»

Rubio offered a similar assessment Wednesday when asked about Trump’s assertion that Iran may be waiting for the outcome of the midterm elections before making a deal.

«I think the Iranians misread our system,» Rubio said. «I think the Iranians are under this illusion that Democrats are going to win in November, and the president will no longer be able to do things against them.»

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Rubio said Congress remains an important branch of government but argued Tehran misunderstands the limits of congressional power over sanctions and military action.

«The president has extraordinary powers. Every president does,» Rubio said. «He’s the commander in chief, both constitutional and otherwise, to be able to carry out those functions.»

«So I think that the Iranians are fundamentally misreading our political system,» Rubio continued.

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The administration is also confronting threats to energy infrastructure elsewhere in the region. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi Arabia as the conflict has expanded, adding another source of uncertainty for global energy markets.

Rubio said Wednesday that the restart of a Saudi pipeline following attacks was «critical for their economy» and «critical for the global economy.» He said energy infrastructure had been targeted by the Houthis as well as Shiite militias in Iraq that the U.S. says are backed by Iran.

«Every time you guys ask me a question about the Middle East, it goes back to someone who’s supported by Iran,» Rubio said.

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Rubio said the U.S. would continue honoring its defense commitments to Saudi Arabia while declining to discuss what additional military options Trump could consider.

«They are a strategic defense partner,» Rubio said. «The U.S. made commitments to them. We will live up to those commitments. We are living up to those commitments now.»

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SCOTUS detention fight could unleash dangerous criminal migrants onto US streets, experts warns

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A Supreme Court battle over whether certain noncitizens with criminal records are entitled to bond hearings during lengthy deportation proceedings could become a public safety concern by making it harder for the federal government to keep some detainees behind bars, legal experts warn.

The Trump administration is asking the justices to take up Genalo v. D.C., a case involving a Dominican citizen with four criminal convictions who has been detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement while fighting removal.

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The dispute centers on a Second Circuit precedent requiring a bond hearing when mandatory immigration detention becomes «unreasonably prolonged.» At that hearing, the government must prove by clear and convincing evidence that the detainee poses a flight risk or danger to the community.

MACHETE-WIELDING MS-13 GANGSTER WANTED FOR MURDER WALKS FREE AFTER BIDEN-APPOINTED JUDGE RELEASES HIM: DHS

Chad Mizelle, chair of litigation at the America First Policy Institute and a former acting associate attorney general and Justice Department chief of staff, told Digital the implications extend beyond immigration law.

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«We are talking about criminal aliens here,» Mizelle said. «Those are individuals who have been accused of or convicted of an aggravated felony. Accused or convicted of murder. Accused or convicted of child rape. Accused or convicted of grievous harm upon another human being.»

«So these are the worst of the worst individuals,» Mizelle continued. «Do we want those individuals walking the streets, re-committing, harming other individuals?»

Mizelle argued Congress imposed mandatory detention on certain noncitizens with criminal records to keep them detained during removal proceedings, while the Second Circuit’s prolonged-detention rule could incentivize some detainees to drag out their cases long enough to seek bond.

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DOJ MOVES TO STRIP CITIZENSHIP FROM 17 PEOPLE ACCUSED OF HIDING DISTURBING CRIMES

The man at the center of the administration’s latest petition, identified in court papers as D.C., is a 62-year-old Dominican citizen who illegally entered the United States and has four criminal convictions, according to court records.

In 1997, D.C. was charged with multiple drug offenses, including selling and possessing a controlled substance. He failed to appear for trial, was convicted by a jury and sentenced in absentia to three to nine years in prison, but did not serve that sentence until 2024. In 2007, he was charged with possessing a forged instrument after presenting false identification to police and again failed to appear in court.

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In 2016, D.C. faced several charges stemming from a domestic dispute, including second-degree strangulation, third-degree assault and acting in a manner to injure a child under 17. He pleaded guilty to criminal obstruction of breathing or blood circulation and also resolved his earlier forged-instrument case with a guilty plea. Later that year, he pleaded guilty to criminal contempt.

D.C. was finally arrested on the outstanding warrant from his 1998 drug conviction in April 2024. After completing his state sentence in September 2025, ICE immediately detained him while his removal proceedings continued.

FEDERAL APPEALS COURT COMPARES TRUMP MIGRANT DETENTION POLICY TO JAPANESE AMERICAN INTERNMENT

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The district court subsequently ordered that D.C. receive a bond hearing under binding Second Circuit precedent but denied his separate request for immediate release. The government is now asking the Supreme Court to take the case before the Second Circuit itself rules — an unusual procedure known as certiorari before judgment.

The administration turned to D.C.’s case after two other noncitizens at the center of the same legal fight saw their cases become moot.

One, Carol Williams Black, had been detained for roughly seven months. His case became moot after he received a final order of removal and permanently left the United States. Black was convicted of sexually abusing a child in 2000. The Supreme Court therefore granted review in June only as to the second detainee, G.M.

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G.M., a lawful permanent resident from the Dominican Republic, pleaded guilty to second-degree assault in May 2015 after being accused of attacking and robbing a man during a 2012 incident in New York City. He was sentenced to two years in prison and was released early on parole in December 2016 after serving 19 months. ICE arrested G.M. at his home on Oct. 5, 2020, and detained him for 21 months without a bond hearing while removal proceedings continued.

TRUMP’S FIGHT OVER RARELY USED 18TH-CENTURY DEPORTATION LAW LIVES ON IN LATEST COURT CLASH

The Supreme Court was scheduled to hear his case Oct. 13. But in late August, New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul granted G.M. a full and unconditional pardon for the assault conviction that had formed the basis for his deportation proceedings and mandatory detention. Solicitor General John Sauer agreed the case was moot, and the Supreme Court dismissed it Sept. 11 without ruling on the merits.

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The administration then identified D.C. as its replacement vehicle and asked the justices to hear the same constitutional questions this term.

FEDERAL JUDGE TIES ICE AGENTS’ HANDS WITH RULING ON WARRANTLESS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARRESTS

Carrie Severino, president of Judicial Crisis Network (JCN), said the dispute is likely to affect many similar immigration cases nationwide.

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«This is not a question that’s only going to affect D.C., the criminal Dominican national at issue in this case,» Severino told Digital. «This is an issue that’s going to affect criminal aliens across the country.»

A victory by D.C. would impose new hurdles on the government, including additional hearings and use of resources, Severino said.

«As we know, immigration cases, skipping out on showing up for court dates is incredibly common,» she added. «This is not something that I think the court ought to be granting on a regular basis that they’d be letting people out on bond simply on their word that they’re going to be coming back when they know that they are likely to be removed.»

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The case also raises questions about who must prove whether continued detention is necessary. The Second Circuit ruled that the government must prove by clear and convincing evidence that a detainee should remain in custody.

«And so, if the Supreme Court winds up affirming what the Second Circuit held, that means it’s going to be harder for the government to be able to detain this particular population of criminal aliens or terrorism-linked aliens,» Florida State University law professor Michael Morley told Digital. «There are going to be situations where the government is not able to show that a particular person is either likely to flee or poses a risk of danger and this dangerousness by a heightened or clear and convincing standard.»

«It means that these criminal aliens who are already subject to removal proceedings are more likely to be released into the community while those underlying removal proceedings continue to make their way slowly through the adjudicative process,» Morley continued.

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The Supreme Court has not yet agreed to hear D.C.’s case.

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INTERNACIONAL

ONU Turismo: la desaceleración global no frenó el crecimiento de República Dominicana

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República Dominicana sumó 8,556.415 visitantes entre enero y agosto de 2026, un alza del 6.9% frente al mismo período de 2025. El dato, difundido por el Ministerio de Turismo (Mitur), llega justo cuando el turismo mundial casi no crece.

Esa combinación deja al país caribeño como una de las excepciones dentro de un panorama global que se enfrió de forma abrupta este año.

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El turismo mundial creció apenas 0.4% en el primer semestre

Entre enero y junio de 2026 viajaron internacionalmente unos 690 millones de turistas, apenas tres millones más que en igual lapso de 2025. El dato surge del World Tourism Barometer, el reporte más reciente de ONU Turismo, organismo de Naciones Unidas para el sector, publicado el 17 de septiembre.

El ministerio de Turismo destaca el auge del turismo de experiencias en Punta Cana (Foto cortesía Ministerio de Turismo de República Dominicana)

El avance de 0.4% marca una desaceleración pronunciada frente al 4% que había registrado 2025, año en que 1,520 millones de personas viajaron fuera de sus países.

ONU Turismo atribuye el freno al conflicto en Medio Oriente, al encarecimiento del petróleo y a una revisión a la baja de las proyecciones globales para el año.

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República Dominicana cerró el semestre con 6.6 millones de visitantes

El país terminó los primeros seis meses del año con 6,616.671 visitantes, un incremento de 7.7% respecto de 2025. El dato fue presentado por el ministro de Turismo, David Collado y difundido por medios locales.

De ese total, 4.9 millones llegaron por vía aérea, con un crecimiento de 10%. Otros 1.6 millones arribaron en cruceros, con un aumento de 1.4%.

El turismo en República Dominicana recibió 816,512 pasajeros no residentes por vía aérea en junio, un 6.0% más que en 2025. (Cortesía: Ministerio de Turismo República Dominicana)

La comparación con el escenario mundial resulta favorable para el destino caribeño. Mientras el planeta apenas sumó tres millones de turistas adicionales en seis meses, República Dominicana por sí sola incorporó cientos de miles de visitantes nuevos y superó ampliamente el promedio global y regional.

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Además, el Banco Central de República Dominicana informó que el país captó USD 6,716 millones por turismo durante el primer semestre. La cifra representa un incremento de 15.3% frente a igual período de 2025, equivalente a USD 891.2 millones adicionales.

El alza en los ingresos superó el ritmo de crecimiento en la cantidad de visitantes, lo que sugiere un mayor gasto promedio por turista. El Banco Central no detalló las causas específicas de esa mejora en la facturación del sector.

Dos personas practican esnórquel junto a un arrecife de coral y peces en la costa de República Dominicana. (Imagen Ilustrativa Infobae)

Estados Unidos lideró el crecimiento de visitantes con 31%

Estados Unidos se mantuvo como el principal mercado emisor del país y explicó el 31% del crecimiento adicional de visitantes durante el semestre. Canadá aportó el 20%, Colombia el 11% y Argentina el 7%.

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Esa distribución muestra la dependencia del turismo dominicano de un puñado de mercados concentrados en el continente americano. Cualquier variación en la conectividad aérea con esos países impacta de forma directa en el flujo de visitantes.

Collado proyectó que el país cerrará el año con más de 12 millones de visitantes. El ministro advirtió que esa cifra dependerá de la evolución de los costos globales de transporte y de la conectividad aérea con los principales mercados emisores.

La proyección oficial implicaría sumar cerca de 3.4 millones de visitantes adicionales entre septiembre y diciembre respecto de los 8.556.415 acumulados hasta agosto.

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Un pasaporte de la República Dominicana es sostenido en primer plano en la pista del Aeropuerto Internacional del Cibao, con un avión de pasajeros de Delta en el fondo, listo para abordar.

El resultado final quedará sujeto a factores que escapan al control del sector turístico dominicano, como el precio del petróleo y la evolución del conflicto en Medio Oriente que ya condicionó el desempeño mundial durante el primer semestre.

El conflicto en Medio Oriente golpeó la demanda mundial

¿Por qué se frenó el turismo mundial en 2026? Porque la combinación de tensiones bélicas en Medio Oriente y el alza en los precios del petróleo encareció los viajes y golpeó la confianza de los consumidores, según ONU Turismo.

El resultado fue un crecimiento casi nulo en la llegada de turistas internacionales durante el primer semestre, muy por debajo del ritmo registrado un año antes.

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El primer trimestre de 2026 había mostrado un crecimiento de 2% en las llegadas internacionales, pero el segundo trimestre cerró con una caída de 1%.

Abril registró un descenso de 3%, atribuido en parte al calendario de Semana Santa y a las primeras consecuencias del conflicto iniciado a fines de febrero en Medio Oriente. En junio, la contracción global volvió a ubicarse en 3%.

La región de Medio Oriente fue la más afectada, con una caída acumulada de 22% en las llegadas internacionales durante el primer semestre.

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Turistas tomando algo en una terraza en Santander, Cantabria (España) (Nacho Cubero / Europa Press)

ONU Turismo señaló que las disrupciones en el tráfico aéreo comenzaron a atenuarse en mayo y junio tras el anuncio de un alto el fuego, lo cual permitió la reapertura de algunas rutas y una recuperación gradual, aunque desigual, de la confianza de los viajeros.

Europa creció 3% y África 4% en el primer semestre, mientras que las Américas mostraron una expansión moderada con resultados dispares entre subregiones.

El impacto del conflicto se propagó a otros mercados a través de tarifas aéreas más altas, cambios de rutas, reducción de la capacidad de vuelos y un desplazamiento de la demanda hacia destinos más cercanos y percibidos como más seguros.

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Los precios del petróleo se dispararon y luego cedieron

Uno de los factores centrales de la desaceleración fue la volatilidad del mercado petrolero. El precio del crudo WTI pasó de USD 67 por barril el 27 de febrero a USD 113 el 7 de abril, un salto de 68% vinculado a la incertidumbre sobre la producción y el tránsito de petróleo por el estrecho de Ormuz.

El valor cayó por debajo de los USD 70 a fines de junio y luego se estabilizó en un rango de entre USD 80 y USD 90 en julio.

En la encuesta de septiembre realizada por ONU Turismo, el 53% de los expertos consultados afirmó que la crisis en Medio Oriente afecta de manera negativa la demanda en sus destinos, una proporción menor al 64% registrado en mayo. Del total, 39% calificó el impacto como moderado y 14% como alto, mientras que 47% lo consideró menor o inexistente.

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ONU Turismo casi duplicó a la baja su previsión anual

Ante estos resultados, el organismo redujo su proyección de crecimiento para 2026 a un rango de entre 1% y 2%, frente al 3% a 4% estimado en enero. La revisión dependerá, según el organismo, de la duración del conflicto y de su efecto sobre los precios del petróleo y la inflación general.

“El mensaje del nuevo Barómetro es claro: el turismo internacional no ha entrado en una recesión, pero el período de crecimiento fácil y rápido ha llegado, por el momento, a su fin”, señaló ONU Turismo en el informe, según recogió Money Tourism, portal especializado en el sector.

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UK police arrest ‘explosive’ suspects near US airbase, key to Iran war

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U.K. police say they arrested multiple suspects for offenses under the «Explosives Act» near a U.S. airbase in southwest England on Sunday.

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Gloucestershire Police say the arrests took place just two miles from RAF Fairford, which hosts U.S. Air Force assets. The U.S. has recently used the base in operations relating to the war in IRan.

«A number of properties are currently being evacuated in the Whelford area following the declaration of a major incident,» Gloucestershire Police said in a statement. «It follows the arrest of several men on suspicion of offenses under the explosives act.»

ANDY BURNHAM TAKES OVER AS UK PRIME MINISTER, CALLS FOR ‘NEW POLITICAL MODEL’

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Police at a road block on the road to RAF Fairford after a major incident has been declared, with armed police manning a cordon near the village of Whelford in Gloucestershire, near RAF Fairford which is used by the United States Air Force (USAF). Picture date: Sunday, September 27, 2026. (Photo by Ben Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images)

«The Army’s specialist explosive ordnance disposal team are currently examining a number of vehicles,» police added.

Authorities did not name the suspects or detail exactly how many were arrested.

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British Defense Secretary Wes Streeting wrote on X that the situation is «being dealt with.»

UK PINS STRING OF ANTISEMITIC ATTACKS ON IRAN-LINKED GROUP, BANS IRGC

The U.S. Air Force uses RAF Fairford in England.

A B1 Bomber at RAF Fairford on July 25, 2026, in Fairford, England. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire a «legitimate target» after U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers used the British base to launch defensive bombing missions against Iranian military targets. (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images)

«The Prime Minister is being kept updated on the incident in Gloucestershire,» The UK Defense Ministry said in another statement.

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«We are grateful to the emergency services, who have acted quickly to detain several suspects and put measures in place to keep the community safe,» the statement continued.

«It would be inappropriate to comment further whilst investigations are ongoing,» it added.

WATER CYBERATTACK HITS AT LEAST 7 STATES

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The incident comes roughly a month after Iran-linked hackers were suspected of forcing a small British power generator offline for several days this summer.

The British shutdown came weeks after hackers struck more than 30 community water systems in Minnesota, accessing technology used to remotely monitor and control pumps and other equipment. Minnesota officials have not publicly attributed the attacks. Several news outlets, citing U.S. officials and a leaked industry threat-sharing memo, reported that Iran was the likely culprit.

Members of the US military offload equipment from a US Air Force C-5 Galaxy at RAF Fairford in south west England on March 6, 2026. Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer has given approval for Washington to use the bases of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and RAF Fairford in southwest England to bomb Iranian missile sites, after several Gulf countries were targeted by Iranian retaliations. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP via Getty Images)

Members of the US military offload equipment from a US Air Force C-5 Galaxy at RAF Fairford in Southwest England on March 6, 2026. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer has given approval for Washington to use the bases of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and RAF Fairford in Southwest England to bomb Iranian missile sites, after several Gulf countries were targeted by Iranian retaliations.  (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)

Federal agencies have also warned that Iranian-affiliated actors have targeted similar industrial devices across water, energy and government sectors, seeking access to the software used to control them. That activity has already caused operational disruptions and financial losses.

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