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Balotaje en Perú: un sociólogo advirtió que “la diferencia tan pequeña obliga a mirar hasta el último voto”
En una entrevista en Infobae al Regreso, Gabriel Puricelli, licenciado en Sociología y docente, describió el escenario de máxima tensión política en Perú, donde el balotaje entre Roberto Sánchez y Keiko Fujimori se define voto a voto y la gobernabilidad aparece como el principal desafío.
Durante su paso por el estudio, Puricelli puso el foco en la diferencia mínima entre los candidatos y su impacto en la legitimidad del futuro gobierno. “La diferencia es tan pequeña que no es una elección donde los candidatos vayan a aceptar, como sucede muchas veces incluso en nuestro país, que se compute hasta el 99,70%. Acá la discusión va a ser ver hasta el último voto, analizar hasta el último voto”, explicó.
“La legitimidad de origen está, porque Perú una de las cosas que tiene, tiene unas autoridades electorales muy competentes cuyos resultados son respetados”, sostuvo Puricelli, al analizar el peso institucional de la ONPE. Sin embargo, advirtió que esa legitimidad “te sirve para los diez primeros kilómetros en Perú”, marcando la diferencia entre la aceptación del resultado y la capacidad real de gobernar.
La polarización se refleja en el recuento: con el 94% de las actas escrutadas, Roberto Sánchez, de Juntos por el Perú, aventaja apenas a Keiko Fujimori, de Fuerza Popular, con 50,10% contra 49,90% de los votos. El organismo electoral pidió cautela y no anticipar conclusiones antes del 100% del escrutinio.
Para Puricelli, el sistema político peruano “es excesivamente volátil”, a pesar de la continuidad económica garantizada por el presidente del Banco Central desde 2009. “El problema es que la legitimidad de origen te sirve poco tiempo, porque la ecuación de poder es muy poliárquica”, remarcó.
Un congreso menos fragmentado y demandas sociales diversas
Consultado sobre la posibilidad de mayor estabilidad, Puricelli distinguió: “Hay menos bloques parlamentarios en este Congreso que en el anterior. Eso hace que para el futuro presidente o presidenta haya que negociar con menos grupos, grupos que son un poco más homogéneos”. No obstante, recordó que la fragmentación del sistema y los comportamientos oportunistas dentro de los partidos siguen dificultando la gobernabilidad.
El especialista hizo hincapié en la diversidad de demandas sociales. “Hay una enorme fragmentación de la demanda política en la sociedad peruana. Hay demanda de seguridad, de educación, demandas regionalistas. El regionalismo define mucho esta elección”, señaló.
Describió que Roberto Sánchez obtuvo alrededor del 70% en la región amazónica y más del 65% en la zona andina, mientras que Keiko Fujimori concentró el 45% de sus votos en Lima, marcando una fuerte tensión territorial.
El voto en el exterior es otro factor decisivo: “En este momento estaba escrutado nada más que el 5% del voto exterior. Si Keiko confirma su victoria entre los votantes del exterior, podría estar más cerca de lo que se puede esperar a esta hora”, alertó Puricelli sobre la importancia de la emigración peruana en los resultados.
Puricelli comparó la situación peruana con la de Italia en la posguerra: “Gobiernos que duraban un promedio de 13 meses, que no completaban una legislatura y, sin embargo, Italia creció hasta transformarse en la quinta economía más poderosa del mundo”.
Planteó que en Perú “la fragmentación de la oferta política se explica por la insatisfacción social de los resultados que da una economía que crece, pero que no reparte de manera pareja ni entre estratos sociales ni entre regiones”.
Consultado sobre el mito de la estabilidad, afirmó: “Perú es de alguna manera un gran ejemplo de lo que puede ser crecimiento importante y dinámico al lado de un desarrollo mediocre. Crecimiento y desarrollo no son la misma cosa. Perú es exitoso en materia de crecimiento. No es un fracaso en términos de desarrollo, pero el desarrollo es mucho más mediocre que el crecimiento”.
Respecto al marco jurídico, subrayó: “El estallido del sistema de partidos políticos en Perú es decisivo para explicar la inestabilidad. Perú no logró reconstituir un sistema de partidos programáticamente reconocibles, con liderazgos reconocidos. Es un país que renueva su sistema de partidos políticos a cada elección”.
El debate incluyó paralelos con la Argentina y los sistemas de elecciones de medio término. Para Puricelli, los efectos del diseño institucional dependen de la interacción con la realidad social de cada país. “No creo que hay nada que condene ni que sancione como perfecto el sistema de la renovación de medio término. El problema es cómo interactúa esto con la política”, concluyó.
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Emotion and feelings: How Democratic Socialists’ congressional insurgency could come back to bite them
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Democratic Socialists of America are on the charge, running hot off their wins in the New York Democratic primaries last week. Their victories in multiple Congressional seats – felling both Reps. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., and Dan Goldman, D-N.Y. – signals that the party is ready to move on from the same old, same old.
Espaillat chaired the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Goldman was a key House staffer during the first impeachment of President Donald Trump.
«Even Dan Goldman’s not good enough for them,» said House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, on Fox. «That is how radical it’s become.»
Some moderate Democrats are trying to distance themselves from the left.
MAMDANI-BACKED SOCIALISTS LOOK TO TAKE NEW YORK PLAYBOOK NATIONWIDE AFTER PRIMARY VICTORIES
The left flank of the Democratic Party has surged to the top of the nation’s most hotly-contested primaries. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
«That’s not the same brand of politics that we have. We’re not those type of Democrats,» said Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., who represents a battleground district.
«There’s a new group of Democratic Socialists who are socialists who are not commonsense Democrats. Who are not interested in getting things done. They’re interested in throwing bombs. Not actually solving problems,» said Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J.
LURCHING LEFT: MAMDANI-BACKED CANDIDATES OUST ESTABLISHMENT DEMOCRATS
Some Democrats are worried how far left candidates command more attention than those in the middle. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Mich., worries that the outsized attention garnered by the left sends the wrong impression to voters.
«What they don’t want is divisiveness. They don’t want screaming and yelling,» said McDonald Rivet.
Mainstream Democrats feel trapped in the middle as the left – specifically the New York City left – wields an outsized media and political megaphone.
«Those candidates would not have won in Virginia where I live,» said Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va.
Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., is among the moderate Democrats trying to distance themselves from the party’s insurgent wing. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Republicans believe they are primed to nationalize the midterms. Republicans can do that by highlighting the extreme views of Democratic Socialists who captured primary victories in New York City. The GOP wants to portray their opponents as veering left.
«These are board-certified communists, right?» asked Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan. «They want no police. They want no private property.»
President Trump capitalized on the Democratic outcomes in his home city.
«The Democrat party is in big trouble because this isn’t stopping with New York,» he forecast.
VICTORIES BY MAMDANI-BACKED CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES SPOTLIGHTS GROWING RIFT IN DEMOCRATIC PARTY
This shakeup has progressive leaders demanding transformation at the top.
«You’re going to see, I think, people voting for new leadership and to change their representation,» said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
The Democratic Party tapped Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., to deliver their official response to President Trump’s 2025 State of the Union speech. Slotkin is a moderate who won in a battleground race in 2024 – even as the President prevailed in the Wolverine State. But during an appearance on SiriusXM, Slotkin insists on a Democratic Party management switch.
«If people can’t understand that the game has fundamentally changed and they can’t adapt, then they need to let others,» said Slotkin. «The old models do not work for people.»
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is perceived by Republicans as vulnerable after his preferred candidates failed in their congressional primaries. (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
Republicans believe House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is vulnerable after the DSA elected their candidates over his preferred picks in New York City.
«I think Hakeem Jeffries’ friends and neighbors gave him a big middle finger,» said House Oversight Chairman James Comer, R-Ky. «If you lose three elections in your hometown, that’s a pretty big slap in the face.»
He added that Democrats «are going further and further to the left to the point where they are full-blown, card-carrying socialists.»
And then there is the anti-Israel, anti-Jewish, and in some cases, antisemitic take by some of these candidates. Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Ohio, is a moderate Democrat from a swing district. He’s Jewish and one of the most pro-Israel Democrats in the House.
«There are some on the left who use Israel the way that some on the right use immigrants or trans kids as a way to divide. And I think it’s terrible. It’s also just not what voters want us talking about,» said Landsman.
HOUSE DEMOCRAT LASHES OUT WHEN GRILLED ON WHETHER SOCIALIST VICTORIES WOULD THREATEN DEM UNITY
Yours truly tangled with Rep. John Larson, D-Conn. – who once chaired the House Democratic Caucus. I pressed him about what the party would do about some candidates «who are too far to the left.»
«What does that mean? That’s your statement. Did the people of New York vote?» queried Larson.
I assured him that they did.
«Is that democracy?» asked Larson.
«But if some of them are antisemitic,» I countered.
«Is that a democracy?» continued Larson.
«Will you stand by people if they have antisemitic views?» I followed up.
Larson finally addressed my inquiry. His answer crystallized the schism the Democratic Party now faces.
«I’m against antisemitism, if that’s your question,» Larson declared.
Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., got into a heated exchange with Fox News’ Chad Pergram over the views of some likely members of his party’s next freshman class. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
The fact that Democrats are now facing this debate robs them of valuable time on economic issues.
Landsman argued that voters would prefer candidates to stick to groceries and the price of gas.
Gottheimer echoed Landsman on kitchen table subjects.
«We should be focused on ways to actually solve problems like that. Not coming in here and using tea party tactics and trying to divide up the country and pray to socialist ideals,» said Gottheimer.
So what is the party to do?
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«They’re our nominees. We’re going to support them. We’re going to welcome them. They’re going to be part of our caucus and we’re going to unite behind Leader Jeffries,» said Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., the top Democrat on the Oversight panel.
But that doesn’t address the fissures. It doesn’t address how voters may perceive the party. And it doesn’t establish if these new Democratic nominees will work on behalf of the party to raise money and advocate for Democrats across the board. Or, will they become professional bomb throwers – ala what the right has endured for a while.
«It’s going to be a lot harder to get things done when you get more and more extreme candidates who are here because they’re interested in political celebrity. They are interested in fighting. They’re interested in making points,» asserted Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D.
Republicans have had an abysmal week themselves – President Donald Trump and Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., for instance, got into a shouting match over Iran. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Tyler Kaufman/Getty Images)
Republicans suffered through an absolutely abysmal week. House GOP leaders had to yank multiple bills off the floor and send lawmakers home early because of internal disputes. President Trump and Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., got into a shouting match about Iran. And the president even threatened to veto a bipartisan housing bill. President Trump then refused to sign the bill at the Capitol, despite his aides touting the bill and House Republicans tricking out Statuary Hall for a signing ceremony.
The President characterized the housing bill as «a yawn.»
But the Democrats’ internal fractures may have superseded any internecine fighting among Republicans.
«While it’s not been a great week for Republicans, I think it’s been a much worse week for Democrats because of these primary elections,» observed Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla.
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Democrats will certainly run on economic issues and capitalize on statements by the President about basic issues like housing. But will a genuine policy debate outweigh fears about progressives nationwide?
Emotion and feelings rule in politics. And it could be a problem for Democrats if Republicans appropriate what happened in New York and Xerox it onto battleground districts across the country.
congress, socialism, democratic party
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A suspect is in custody after six people were shot and killed Monday at a youth welfare facility in northern Germany, officials said.
The shooting happened around midday in Stade, a town of about 50,000 people near Hamburg. Authorities said the victims — four women and two men — all worked at the youth center or affiliated organizations. Five were pronounced dead at the scene, while a sixth died later at a hospital, according to The Associated Press, citing authorities.
Several others were wounded in the shooting, which may have been tied to a child custody dispute, the outlet reported.
2 PEOPLE ARE KILLED IN A KNIFE ATTACK IN GERMANY; SCHOLZ SAYS THERE MUST BE CONSEQUENCES
The shooting happened around midday in Stade, a town of about 50,000 people near Hamburg. (News5/Reuters)
Police said the shooting happened at a facility on Dankersstrasse that houses pregnant women and young mothers with children, according to The Associated Press.
The suspect, a 45-year-old man, had an appointment at the facility earlier in the day before the shooting unfolded around midday. His 3-month-old daughter and the child’s mother were safe, Reuters reported.
The suspected gunman was arrested. Police said two others were also subject to police measures on suspicion of involvement but did not provide additional details, according to The Associated Press.
CHILDREN AMONG 6 WOUNDED IN MARYLAND MASS SHOOTING AS DETECTIVES WORK TO DETERMINE WHAT OCCURRED
Authorities said the victims — four women and two men — all worked at the youth center or affiliated organizations. (News5/Reuters)
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he was «deeply shocked» by the violence at a place meant to protect women and children.
«The horrific act of violence in Stade claimed the lives of six people today. I am deeply shaken by the extent of the violence in a place that is meant to provide protection,» Steinmeier said.
«My condolences go to the families of the dead and injured, who must endure so much pain. My thanks go to all first responders and doctors.»
SUSPECT ‘NEUTRALIZED’ AFTER MONTREAL SHOOTING LEAVES AT LEAST 2 DEAD INCLUDING OFFICER
Police warned people to avoid the area after the shooting but later said there was no danger to the public. (News5/Reuters)
Police warned people to avoid the area after the shooting but later said there was no danger to the public. Investigators were still collecting evidence Monday evening, Reuters reported.
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Mass shootings in Germany are rare.
Earlier this year, a car plowed into a pedestrian zone in Leipzig, Germany, killing two people and leaving several others seriously injured.
Stade Police could not immediately be reached by Fox News Digital for comment.
germany, homicide, world, crime world, mass shootings
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