No one would have predicted it.

But you could have made a lot of money if you did.

With uncharacteristic dispatch, the United States Senate unanimously voted to ban senators and staff from playing in the prediction markets.

«This is a national security risk,» said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. «The very possibility that a member’s vote could be influenced by a bet is reason enough to slam the door shut.»

SENATE QUIETLY BANS LAWMAKERS FROM BETTING ON PREDICTION MARKETS

You can’t predict the future. But now in the Senate, you can’t even bet on it.

Especially real world events.

Like if the stock market might crash. The fate of the economy. War. Terrorism.

Or who would wear what gown at the Met Gala.

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The biggest concern on Capitol Hill is potential wagering on the fate of legislation. Or the confirmation of nominees. There’s bipartisan concern that speculation in the prediction markets could tilt political outcomes.

«Engaging in any way in a prediction market or trying to place bets where we might have inside information deteriorates the confidence that our constituents have in us,» said Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio.

Moreno pushed to change the rules for senators. Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., amended Moreno’s proposal to include Senate aides.

This only applies to the Senate. For now. The House is playing catch up.

«Any place where your role in Congress has a potential for individual benefit, I think needs to be tightly controlled,» said Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., when asked about prospects for a similar measure in the House.

Keep in mind that under the Constitution, the House and Senate can make their own rules.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has said «we must never allow Congress to turn into a casino.» (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Senate’s maneuver comes just weeks after the Feds busted a U.S. special forces solider who had access to classified information – and then bet on the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Virginia U.S. Senate candidate Mark Moran placed a wager that he would run for office. Moran later made money on his own proposition after he jumped into the race.

«Our constituents have to know that our only guiding light is what’s best for our state. What’s best for the people of our states. And what’s best for the United States of America,» said Moreno.

«We must never allow Congress to turn into a casino,» said Schumer. «Just the possibility that Members could have their votes influence because of betting is a reason enough to prohibit members from meddling in the prediction markets.»

But Schumer wants prediction market prohibitions extended to the executive branch. The New York Democrat argues that the Trump Administration «shows such a troubling affinity to corruption and self-dealing.»

SENATE PASSES MEASURE BANNING LAWMAKERS FROM PREDICTION BETS

This brings us to something else from which many Congressional Democrats want to exclude the executive branch: trading stocks.

But here’s the problem. Congress has paid lip service to imposing its own ban for lawmakers and aides to stock trades. But neither the House nor Senate ever implemented an across-the-board prohibition.

It’s a stalled issue. And has been so for years.

«Send me a bill that bans insider trading by Members of Congress and I will sign it tomorrow,» instructed former President Obama during his State of the Union speech in January 2012.

«Let’s also ensure that Members of Congress cannot corruptly profit from using insider information,» proclaimed President Trump during his State of the Union message in February.

Well, it’s nearly mid-2026 and Congress still isn’t all the way there.

President Donald Trump expressed a desire to «ensure that Members of Congress cannot corruptly profit from using insider information» at his State of the Union address. (Jabin Botsford/Getty Images)

Late Rep. Louise Slaughter, D-N.Y., and former Rep. Brian Baird, D-Wash., were the most ardent advocates of a Congressional stock trading ban – dating back to 2006. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, made hundreds of stock trades in 1999 and 2000. That caught Baird’s attention.

«If there is a way to make a profit on that, somebody has probably already figured out a way to do it,» said Baird, «And it’s not illegal.»

Congress finally passed the STOCK Act in 2012. It stands for «Stop Trading On Congressional Knowledge.» There was concern that lawmakers are privy to financial, economic and political intelligence. Therefore, they could buy or sell stocks on information which bordered on «insider trading.»

But the STOCK Act didn’t prohibit lawmakers from playing on Wall Street. It just required additional financial disclosures about when lawmakers and aides traded stocks.

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President Obama’s 2012 entreaty certainly helped goad lawmakers into approving the STOCK Act a few days later. But it wasn’t a ban on «insider trading» as the former president suggested. This just entailed additional transparency.

The stalemate over stock trades baffles some lawmakers.

«I don’t know why it’s been such a challenge in the House,» said Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va. «I think any Member saying that they should be able to trade stocks is flat out wrong. I think it degrades trust in the institution. Even for those members who are not trading on inside information.»

House Administration Committee Chairman Brian Steil, R-Wis., has a bill to curb stock trades by lawmakers.

«If you want a day trade, go to Wall Street. Come to Washington to lead this country,» said Steil.

«If you want a day trade, go to Wall Street,» House Administration Committee Chairman Brian Steil, R-Wis., said. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

But that bill is marooned. It partly goes back to the Democrats’ push to extend any Congressional stock trading ban to the executive branch. That’s something many Republicans are reluctant to do.

«There is zero justification and rationale for allowing a president of any party or a vice president of any party, to be able to engage in stock trading while they have the awesome power of the presidency, vice presidency and executive branch in their hands,» said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., believes the stock trade issue is evolving. She doubts that voters will put up with market activity by her colleagues much longer.

«We know there are many colleagues who do still trade stocks. I think the American public is much more informed on this topic now. And this is very unpopular. So I do think the tide is changing and it will become untenable for any member to to be supportive of  it,» said Ansari. «I think more people have more information. So what a Member of Congress was able to get away with even five years ago just is not possible today.»

Like many things when it comes to ethics in politics, it’s not necessarily impropriety. But the perception of impropriety. The public holds Congress in low esteem to start with. Many voters believe the «ruling class» has special access to information which enables them to game the system for their own economic benefit. That distrust may fester as long as Congress fails to police its own.

While we can’t predict the future, people can certainly shape it. Congress has a lot of tools at its disposal to contour that future. The question is if lawmakers are bending those fortunes in their direction.

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So will Congress approve a stock trading ban? The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

In other words, don’t bet on it.

Two former Chinese defense ministers have been sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for corruption, in one of the most severe punishments handed down to senior military officials in recent years.

Reuters reported that Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu received the suspended death sentences on May 7 following graft convictions by China’s military court, according to state media.

The ruling underscores the depth of President Xi Jinping’s long-running anti-corruption campaign within the armed forces, the outlet said.

According to the official Xinhua News Agency, Wei was convicted of accepting bribes, while Li was found guilty of both accepting and offering bribes, based on court documents.

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Both men were also stripped of their political rights for life and ordered to forfeit all personal property.

Under Chinese law, a death sentence with a two-year reprieve is typically commuted to life imprisonment if the individual does not commit further crimes during the suspension period.

In this case, the penalties will be reduced to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole or further commutation after the reprieve period ends.

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Former Defence Minister Li Shangfu was the successor to Wei (Caroline Chia / Reuters)

Wei Fenghe, 72, served as China’s defense minister from 2018 to 2023, while Li Shangfu, 68, held the post for only a few months as his successor.

Both men were former state councillors and members of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), the top military leadership body chaired by Xi.

They also previously led the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, a key branch established in 2015 as part of Xi’s sweeping military reforms.

The Rocket Force oversees China’s nuclear arsenal as well as its conventional missile systems, making it one of the most strategically significant arms of the military.

The sentences signal an escalation in Xi’s campaign to root out corruption in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), a drive that has targeted senior officials since he took power in 2012.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping walks with soldiers in uniform as the House Select Committee on China raises concerns about taxpayer dollars going to CCP-linked entities. (Li Gang/Xinhua)

The crackdown intensified in 2023, when investigations reached the Rocket Force and other elite units.

Both Wei and Li were expelled from the ruling Communist Party in June 2024.

Singapore-based security scholar James Char told Reuters the sentences were the harshest imposed on members of the Central Military Commission in recent history.

«That Wei and Li have been commuted to life imprisonment without parole or commutation underlines the severity of their offences,» he said.

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The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank, had previously warned that the ongoing purges could be weakening China’s military command structure.

The organization said the campaign may have created disruptions that could affect the readiness of the country’s rapidly modernizing armed forces.

El presidente del Parlamento iraní, Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf, lanzó este lunes una nueva amenaza contra Estados Unidos y afirmó que las fuerzas armadas de Irán están preparadas para responder ante cualquier acción militar.

“Nuestras fuerzas armadas están listas para responder e infligir una lección ante cualquier agresión”, escribió el dirigente iraní en la red social X. Luego agregó: “Se llevarán una sorpresa”.

Las declaraciones se conocieron pocas horas después de que el presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, asegurara que el alto el fuego en Medio Oriente atraviesa un momento crítico tras rechazar la última respuesta enviada por Teherán en el marco de las negociaciones para intentar frenar el conflicto regional.

Trump calificó como “TOTALMENTE INACEPTABLE” la contrapropuesta iraní presentada mediante canales diplomáticos y sostuvo que la tregua vigente desde hace más de un mes se encuentra al borde del colapso.

“El alto el fuego está conectado a soporte vital”, afirmó el mandatario estadounidense durante declaraciones a la prensa en Washington.

La escalada verbal entre ambos países volvió a generar preocupación internacional por el futuro de la estabilidad en el golfo Pérsico y por la situación en el estrecho de Ormuz, uno de los corredores marítimos más importantes del planeta para el transporte de petróleo y gas.

Según medios de propaganda de Teherán, la respuesta iraní entregada a Estados Unidos incluyó exigencias vinculadas al levantamiento de sanciones económicas, el fin del bloqueo naval estadounidense y garantías de que no habrá nuevos ataques contra territorio iraní. Además, Irán pidió el descongelamiento de activos iraníes retenidos en bancos extranjeros.

El portavoz del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores iraní, Esmaeil Baqaei, sostuvo que la posición de Teherán se basa en “derechos legítimos” y negó que su país haya solicitado concesiones extraordinarias. “Lo único que pedimos son los derechos legítimos de Irán”, declaró.

Las conversaciones se desarrollan en medio de un clima de máxima tensión militar en el Golfo. Irán mantiene restricciones sobre el tránsito marítimo en Ormuz y estableció mecanismos de control sobre buques que atraviesan esa ruta estratégica, utilizada normalmente por cerca del 20% del petróleo comercializado a nivel mundial.

La posibilidad de un agravamiento de la crisis impactó de inmediato en los mercados energéticos internacionales. El director ejecutivo de la petrolera saudita Aramco, Amin Nasser, afirmó que el actual shock de suministro energético “es el mayor que el mundo haya experimentado”. También advirtió que, incluso si el estrecho de Ormuz reabre rápidamente, el mercado podría tardar meses en estabilizarse.

Además de las consecuencias energéticas, organismos internacionales alertaron sobre posibles efectos humanitarios derivados de la crisis. Jorge Moreira da Silva, director ejecutivo de la Oficina de Naciones Unidas de Servicios para Proyectos (UNOPS), señaló ante la agencia AFP que existe riesgo de una emergencia alimentaria global debido a las interrupciones en el transporte de fertilizantes y productos básicos desde puertos del Golfo.

“Podríamos enfrentar una crisis que empuje a 45 millones de personas adicionales al hambre”, sostuvo el funcionario.

Mientras tanto, continúan surgiendo detalles sobre la propuesta iraní rechazada por Washington. Según informó The Wall Street Journal, citando fuentes familiarizadas con las conversaciones, Teherán planteó la posibilidad de diluir parte de su uranio altamente enriquecido y transferir otra porción a un tercer país como parte de un eventual acuerdo.

Sin embargo, el programa nuclear iraní sigue siendo uno de los principales puntos de desacuerdo entre ambas partes. Estados Unidos, Israel y varios aliados occidentales sostienen desde hace años que Irán busca desarrollar armas nucleares, acusación que el régimen iraní rechaza de forma reiterada.

El primer ministro israelí, Benjamin Netanyahu, reiteró recientemente que el conflicto no concluirá hasta que las instalaciones nucleares iraníes sean neutralizadas.

(Con información de AFP)