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Trump cuida su relación con China: envía señales de distención ante la dependencia de Beijing del crudo iraní

Donald Trump está haciendo todo lo posible para evitar una nueva crisis con China a un mes de su proyectada visita a Beijing y con el trasfondo de la guerra en Irán y la dependencia china del bloqueado petróleo del Golfo Pérsico.
El presidente estadounidense tiene agendado un viaje a la capital china el 14 y 15 de mayo para reunirse con su par Xi Jingping y limar cualquier aspereza remanente de la guerra arancelaria y la escalada bélica en Medio Oriente.
“Trump ha buscado estrechar lazos con Xi desde que acordó una tregua comercial en noviembre pasado, aunque las tensiones aumentaron debido a la guerra en Irán”, alertó el sitio estadounidense Axios.
El bloqueo impuesto por Washington al estratégico estrecho de Ormuz, por donde pasaba el 20% del petróleo mundial, está poniendo en aprietos a la economía china, que tiene en Irán a un socio clave en su política energética y su plan de expansión geopolítica enfocado en la llamada nueva Ruta de la Seda.
¿Cómo puede reaccionar China al bloqueo estadounidense del estrecho de Ormuz?
Se estima que China compra alrededor del 80% del total de las exportaciones de crudo iraní. El año pasado esta cifra representaba 1,38 millones de barriles diarios. La sucesión de sanciones internacionales impulsadas por Washington obligó a Irán a concentrar sus exportaciones petroleras en Beijing.
En contrapartida, el 13% de las importaciones petroleras de China proviene de Irán. El estrecho de Ormuz domina el conflicto de Medio Oriente (Reuters)
“Si bien China tiene una dependencia estructural del petróleo proveniente del Golfo Pérsico (cerca del 40% del oro negro que importa, transita por esa vía), según fuentes chinas el país podría resistir un bloqueo del Estrecho de Ormuz durante 4 a 6 meses”, dijo a TN el analista Jorge Malena, director del Comité de Asuntos Asiáticos del Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI).
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Según el experto especializado en temas chinos, “la manera sería haciendo uso de sus reservas estratégicas (unos 1000 millones de barriles), pero también acudiendo a otros proveedores (Rusia, Angola, Nigeria, Brasil, etc.) e incluso incrementando la extracción en los yacimientos del oeste del país (o iniciándola en el Mar del Sur de la China)”.
Pero algunas de estas medidas serían dolorosas. “Los barriles de reemplazo costarían entre 10 y 12 dólares más por barril. Rusia ha aumentado sus entregas, pero el cambio conlleva un costo real”, reveló un informe publicado este miércoles por The Jerusalem Post.
¿Qué busca Trump de China?
Trump no quiere una nueva crisis con China en medio de una guerra y a pocos meses de las elecciones de medio término de noviembre, que se presentan adversas para el partido Republicano, en parte por el alza del combustible derivado del conflicto en Medio Oriente.
El presidente estadounidense confía en que China utilice su poder como importador monopólico del crudo iraní para presionar a Teherán a alcanzar un acuerdo con Washington que ponga fin a la guerra. De hecho, en ámbitos diplomáticos se viene ponderando el rol de Beijing para convencer al gobierno de los ayatollah a sentarse en la mesa de negociaciones.
Pero Malena es escéptico. “Lo dudo, porque cuanto más se desgaste Estados Unidos, mejor para China. A menos que sus intereses se vean afectados”, opinó.
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La gran pregunta que se hacen hoy expertos en geopolítica internacional es si China desafiará a Washington con el envío de buques petroleros al estrecho de Ormuz para romper el cerco.
“Muy difícilmente lo haga, porque ello implicaría intervenir en la crisis del Estrecho y provocar una escalada”, advirtió Malena.
Pero no son los buques de bandera china los que suelen transportar el crudo iraní. El informe de The Jerusalem Post reveló que “la flota clandestina iraní fue creada precisamente para este juego: operaciones de falsa bandera, transpondedores falsificados y transferencias de barco a barco frente a las costas de Malasia”.
“Los registros aduaneros de China no muestran importaciones procedentes de Irán desde 2022, pero sus importaciones registradas de crudo ‘malayo’ en 2025 alcanzaron 1,3 millones de barriles diarios, más del doble de la producción total de Malasia. Esta red de evasión lleva años en funcionamiento“, indicó el informe.
Según el reporte, poco después de la entrada en vigencia del bloqueo estadounidense, el buque petrolero “Rich Starry” de bandera de Malawi (un país africano sin litoral) pero de propiedad china, zarpó de un puerto cerca de Sharjah (Emiratos Árabes Unidos) y cruzó el estrecho de Ormuz con aproximadamente 250.000 barriles de metanol, “con casi total seguridad procedentes de Irán”.
El buque puso a prueba el bloqueo. El Pentágono lo dejó pasar. Trump no quiere problemas con China. El presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump (Foto: EFE)
En ese complejo escenario geopolítico, el diario israelí advirtió: “El alto el fuego expira en seis días. Si la flota clandestina se retira del estrecho en las próximas 72 horas, Beijing habrá tomado una decisión. Si más buques de la clase ‘Rich Starry’ desafían el bloqueo, estará retando a Washington».
Pero Trump prefiere entonar la música que más quiere escuchar Xi Jinping.
“China está muy contenta de que esté abriendo permanentemente el Estrecho de Ormuz. Lo hago también por ellos, y por el mundo. Esta situación no volverá a repetirse. Han acordado no enviar armas a Irán. El presidente Xi me dará un fuerte abrazo cuando llegue allí en unas semanas. ¡Estamos trabajando juntos de forma inteligente y muy eficaz! ¿Acaso no es mejor que pelear? PERO RECUERDEN, somos muy buenos peleando, si es necesario, ¡mucho mejores que nadie!“, escribió el presidente estadounidense en su red social Truth Social.
A un mes de su visita a China, Trump necesita tranquilizar a Beijing. China conoce su juego. El gobierno chino está acostumbrado a jugar al ajedrez en el tablero internacional, con partidas largas y complejas en las que siempre es muy difícil ganarle.
Donald Trump, China, Irán
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Trump owns the GOP. Could Republicans pay the price in the midterms?

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President Donald Trump took to social media on Wednesday morning to showcase the power of his political endorsements, touting that the candidates he backed went 37-0 in Tuesday’s GOP primaries from coast to coast.
«We won all races last night. Every one of them,» Trump told reporters.
The brute force of the president’s endorsement power and the immense grip he has on the Republican Party were on full display in a number of high-profile ballot-box showdowns, including Trump-backed Ed Gallrein ousting Rep. Thomas Massie in the GOP primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, a race that grabbed outsized national attention.
But Trump’s heavy hand in this year’s primaries could cause repercussions in the autumn, when Republicans will be defending their razor-thin House and slim Senate majorities in the midterm elections.
TRUMP-BACKED FORMER NAVY SEAL DEALS KNOCKS OUT MASSIE IN HIGH-STAKES SHOWDOWN
President Donald Trump talks to reporters before boarding Air Force One on May 20, 2026 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. Trump showcased the power of his political endorsements in answering reporter questions. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
While those concerns will mount as the midterms creep closer, on Tuesday night the political headline was Trump once again successfully flexing his muscles to exert payback on Republicans who defied him.
Two weeks after purging five state senators in Indiana’s primary who had opposed his push for congressional redistricting, and three days after helping to oust Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana — as the senator who, five and a half years ago, voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial lost his bid for renomination — Trump obliterated Massie.
Massie, who for 14 years has represented Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, in the northeastern part of the red-leaning state, has long been one of Trump’s most vocal GOP critics in Congress. The libertarian-minded lawmaker has repeatedly taken aim at the president over foreign policy, including the Iran war and unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel. And he’s also been a thorn in Trump’s side for successfully pushing for the release of government files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
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Rep. Thomas Massie speaks to supporters at his primary night event in Hebron, Ky., on May 19, 2026. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Gallrein’s nearly ten-point victory over Massie in a race that was expected to be much closer represents a major win for Trump’s political operation and pro-Israel allied groups, who spent aggressively to unseat the sitting lawmaker.
Speaking at his victory celebration, Gallrein thanked Trump for his support, saying, «My focus is on advancing the president’s and the party’s agenda to put America first and Kentucky always.»
Taking to social media after Massie’s defeat, White House communications director and longtime Trump aide Steven Cheung warned, «Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power. F–k around, find out.»
Veteran Republican strategist and communicator Ryan Williams told Fox News Digital, «The Republican Party is Trump’s party, and if you cross him, he’ll hit back at you ten times as hard and defeat you. He’s getting better at this as time goes on. His grip on the party has increased, not decreased.»
«Anybody at this point who doesn’t understand this will be out of a job if they cross the president,» Williams emphasized.
Meanwhile, Rep. Andy Barr of Kentucky, backed by Trump in recent days, cruised to the Republican Senate nomination in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, a former longtime Senate GOP leader.
And Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a top Trump ally in the Senate, easily captured the GOP gubernatorial nomination in solidly red Alabama.
But some Trump-backed candidates will have to wait a little longer before securing a ticket to the general election.
Republican Lt. Gov. Burt Jones of Georgia finished first in the GOP gubernatorial primary, but didn’t top 50%, forcing a runoff next month with billionaire businessman Rick Jackson.
It was the same story in Alabama, where Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore finished first but will need another victory in next month’s runoff to secure the Republican Senate nomination in the race to succeed Tuberville.
And this past weekend, Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow was forced into a runoff with Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming as Cassidy was sent packing.

Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana fist bumps a supporter during a campaign stop at a gun retailer and firing range in Baton Rouge on May 15, 2026, the eve of the state’s Senate primary. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Trump putting his hand on the scale in red states like Louisiana, Alabama and Kentucky shouldn’t be an issue in the general election, but it could be in battleground Georgia, and in red-leaning Texas, where Democrats are hoping to win a U.S. Senate election for the first time in nearly four decades.
Democrats feel Trump gave them an early Christmas gift by endorsing MAGA firebrand and ally and supporter Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn with one week to go until the runoff election for the Republican nomination.
«Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,» Trump wrote in a social media post as he announced his backing of Paxton, which likely ends Cornyn’s hope of winning renomination.
The winner of the GOP runoff will face off in the autumn with rising Democratic Party star state Rep. James Talarico, who has built a massive war chest this year while Cornyn and Paxton have traded fire in their combustible race.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and many GOP leaders in the nation’s capital saw Cornyn as the candidate better equipped to successfully defend the seat in Texas, which Democrats are trying to flip as they work to win back the chamber’s majority.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, speaks to the media on primary night in Austin, Texas, on March 3, 2026. (Jack Myer/AP)
That’s because Paxton has faced a slew of scandals and legal problems that have battered him over the past decade, as well as his ongoing messy divorce.
Some Republicans are concerned this could be a flashback to 2022, when then-former President Trump flexed his muscles in the GOP primaries, with some of his picks, including Georgia’s Herschel Walker, falling short in the midterms, as Republicans failed to win back the Senate.
«Trump got his way in most of the primaries in 2022 also. Didn’t portend great results in the general election,» vocal Trump critic and GOP consultant Sarah Longwell posted on social media Tuesday night.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, was endorsed by President Donald Trump on Tuesday. (Julio Cortez/AP Photo)
Williams said, «The president has shown that he puts personal loyalty over political considerations even when it puts a safe seat at risk.»
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And pointing to this year’s midterms, when the GOP as the party in power will face traditional headwinds as well as an extremely challenging political climate, Ryan said, «That’s the situation Republicans find themselves dealing with heading into what should be a challenging midterm election.»
midterm elections, donald trump, republicans, kentucky, georgia, alabama, texas
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Mojtaba Khamenei using ‘bin Laden template’ to survive, learned from Abbottabad: analyst

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has spent nearly three months in hiding as tensions with the U.S. escalate — a disappearance that counterterrorism analysts say mirrors the final years of al Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Laden.
The comparison comes amid a critical standoff between Washington and Tehran that prompted President Donald Trump to pause a planned strike on May 19. On Wednesday, Trump told reporters he was in «no hurry.»
Khamenei, meanwhile, appeared to share three posts on his official X account on May 18 but remains out of public view.
«For the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic, the United States has done to Tehran what it spent two decades doing to al-Qaeda and ISIS,» counterterrorism expert Dr. Omar Mohammed told Fox News Digital.
THE MISSING MULLAH: IRAN’S ‘SUPREME LEADER’ A NO-SHOW FOR NEGOTIATIONS, THEN HID AS US POUNDED NUKE SITES
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is shown in a portrait image. (Fox News)
«The U.S. has driven its leader into the same kind of operational invisibility that bin Laden lived in for 10 years in Abbottabad,» he added.
«Both Mojtaba Khamenei and bin Laden inherited their status on the back of an American operation, and both responded the same way: by ceasing to exist publicly,» Mohammed said before adding that bin Laden «stopped releasing dated videos around 2007 and confined himself to audio messages carried by hand.»
Bin Laden founded al-Qaeda in the late 1980s and masterminded the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States.
After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, bin Laden evaded capture for a decade by hiding inside a fortified compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
To avoid Western electronic surveillance, he severed his digital footprint and relied exclusively on a network of physical couriers, said Mohammed, an expert with the Antisemitism Research Initiative at George Washington University’s Program on Extremism.
U.S. intelligence eventually tracked one of those couriers to the compound, culminating in the 2011 Navy SEAL raid that killed the al Qaeda leader.
OPERATION EPIC FURY: HOW AMERICA’S AIR POWER IS CRUSHING IRAN’S TERROR REGIME

Portrait of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden was killed in 2011 in a daring SEAL Team 6 raid in Pakistan. (Photo by Stephane Ruet/Sygma via Getty Images)
«Bin Laden survived with no cables out of the Abbottabad compound. Communications were carried by hand by two trusted couriers, the Kuwaiti brothers,» Mohammed said.
«Bin Laden stayed hidden for the rest of his life because the moment he surfaced was the moment he died. Mojtaba’s incentives point the same way. Mojtaba Khamenei won’t emerge,» he said.
«The Abbottabad lesson, which Tehran will have studied closely, is that the safest hiding place is not a cave in Tora Bora but a walled compound in a garrison town,» Mohammed added, recalling how U.S. forces targeted bin Laden in the cave complex before he escaped.
Bin Laden also lived roughly a mile from Pakistan’s top military academy, hiding in plain sight behind high concrete walls and barbed wire, Mohammed noted.
«The logical Iranian equivalents are hardened sites under or alongside IRGC facilities,» Mohammed added, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and possible locations where Khamenei could be.
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, one of Khamenei’s few recent communications was an X post declaring a «holy war,» framing the geopolitical clash as a mandatory religious obligation.
INSIDE IRAN’S RULING IDEOLOGY: HOW A ‘HOLY MISSION’ AND MESSIANIC DOCTRINE FUEL REGIME EXTREMISM

President Donald Trump said, «I got him before he got me» after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top leaders were killed in an Israeli strike in Tehran during the U.S.-Israeli military offensive called Operation Epic Fury. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images; Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
«This is a religious leader calling for sacred war against America and the Jews from an undisclosed location because his enemies have publicly vowed to kill him on sight,» Mohammed said, describing the narrative as «the bin Laden template, almost line for line.»
Mohammed also suggested Khamenei’s retreat into the shadows marks a watershed moment for Washington and the future of the Iranian regime.
His predecessor and father, Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed Feb. 28 in a targeted U.S.-Israeli airstrike in Tehran during Operation Epic Fury.
«This regime that for 47 years projected its power through a single visible Supreme Leader at the Friday prayer pulpit can no longer produce that figure on demand,» he said, calling it a «strategic milestone.»
«Predecessors killed by U.S. strikes and successors who cannot show their faces. Real power exercised by a security apparatus rather than by the nominal figurehead.»
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«Now one side is announcing operations on three continents through its president; the other is governed on paper by a man whose own population is uncertain where he is or what state he is in,» Mohammed said.
«The contrast is also about the optics of leadership during this war,» he added.
mojtaba khamenei, al qaeda terror, counter terrorism, war with iran, iran
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