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Reporter’s Notebook: House control could hinge on whether the old political rules still apply

Are we playing with the old playbook or a new playbook in the midterm elections this fall?
That’s unclear. It’s hard to determine simply because we’ve seen so much that’s «new» in politics lately.
Norms are cast aside. The American system quaked to its core in recent years. You’ve witnessed an American president win the election by prevailing in the Electoral College but losing the popular vote. To have that happen twice in 16 years (2000 and 2016) is astonishing, considering the fact that such an outcome only unfolded on three occasions before.
You then had a president impeached twice yet return to office a few years later. There was the Capitol riot as arguing continued about the 2020 election.
POLL: VOTERS WANT MAJOR CHANGE AMID ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DISCONTENT
If this is the old playbook, Democrats likely light up the scoreboard in November. The party of the president typically loses about 25 seats in a president’s first midterm. Midterm elections are frequently a referendum on the president. That’s why many Republicans are trying to keep President Donald Trump at arm’s length, considering that his polling numbers are anywhere from the mid-30s to 40% on a good day. Gas prices are high. Grocery prices are skyrocketing. The war in Iran lingers. There’s a trade war with one of America’s best allies.
On the old playbook, this portends a disaster for the GOP in this fall’s midterms.
But what if we’re using the new playbook?
President Trump — and sometimes Republicans aligned with him — have shown a remarkable resilience to defy political gravity and norms. Control of the House could come down to just a few seats. What if there are questions about election security and the validity of who won and lost? There’s redistricting. On paper, Republicans probably redrew about five to six seats nationwide in their favor.
If things are tight, we might not know which party wins the House on election night. Perhaps a few days down the road — if not later. That is, unless it’s a Democratic blowout.
And remember what we said a few moments ago about the president’s party losing so many seats in that first midterm? Yes, in a way, this is President Trump’s «first midterm.» But not really. He experienced a midterm in 2018. Not that things went in the GOP’s favor that year. There’s no contemporary data on how the party of a president might perform after he’s been out of office and rallied to victory a few years later.
Also, the sheer reduction by both parties of seats which are in play mitigates political «waves» which crash across the political shoreline in House midterm races. Think 1994 and 2010 for Republicans. 2018 for Democrats. Thus, even though many of the factors favor the Democrats, the possibility remains it could be tough for the party to flip the House.
In 2018, the Democrats’ carried an approval rating of 44%. For this time around, it’s 37%. That rivals polling related to the president. In 2018, voters had had enough of President Trump and wanted a change. But because of the polling parity this year, it’s not so obvious that voters are so turned off by President Trump that they automatically gravitate to the Democrats.
Here’s another factor: turnout.
POWER RANKINGS: WHAT’S IN AN ECONOMY?
President Trump has worked hard to tell voters that he’s «on the ballot» this fall. That cuts two ways. President Trump’s presence on the ballot has historically driven people to the polls. In 2016, 60.1% of registered voters showed up. In 2020, an eye-popping 66.4% of all voters cast ballots. And in 2024, 64.3% of those registered to vote did so.
But considering the president’s unpopularity, the cognizance of voters that he’s «on the ballot» could also deter them from turning out. At least those who previously supported him. And those impacts ricochet down to House races. The president’s track record at turning out independent voters in races that count wasn’t great down ballot even as he won the White House in 2024.
Consider that, in the 2018 midterms, 50.1% of registered voters materialized. Just 46.1% voted in the 2022 midterms. It was 36.1% in the 2014 midterms — 41% in the historic 2010 midterms where Republicans won a record 63 House seats.
This «Trump on the ballot» initiative might not resound with voters. Especially since the president conceded — en route to his midterm convention in Dallas — that gas prices wouldn’t decrease until after the election. He also said the U.S. is stuck with the war in Iran through the midterms.
So, how do we know what to anticipate in November?
It’s really hard to read if there’s not a clear wave coming. The best way to postulate control of the House is by going race to race. And that is a painstaking process.
For instance, will Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., have a district in which to run? Missouri Republicans tried to draw Cleaver out of his district earlier this year. Then a court ruled last week that the Show-Me State must use the old congressional districts, likely meaning that Cleaver was safe. Then another judge ruled that voters already cast ballots in primaries. So, the new maps were back, and Cleaver may be out.
All of this less than two months before the election.
MISSOURI HIGH COURT BLOCKS GOP-BACKED CONGRESSIONAL MAPS AHEAD OF MIDTERMS; TRUMP BLASTS ‘RIDICULOUS’ RULING
Is there a groundswell for Democrats in Iowa where the Senate seat and governor’s mansion are in jeopardy for Republicans? If that’s the case, Democrats might have a shot of claiming at least two if not three seats there: Republican Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn and maybe the seat that Rep. Ashley Hinson is vacating in her quest to become a senator.
How about Ohio? There are competitive gubernatorial and Senate contests. Does a Democratic surge boost Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Ohio? Do the accusations of spousal and child abuse bounce embattled Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio., in what is otherwise a relatively safe Republican seat?
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, clung to her seat by fewer than 1,000 votes two years ago. But that was when President Trump carried the Buckeye State by 11 points and Kaptur’s district. Redistricting actually turned Kaptur’s turf slightly more in her favor. But the 80-year-old Kaptur was in a car wreck in August, inhibiting her ability to campaign. Is that a factor?
How well do Democrats perform in Virginia? Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., faces former Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., who she vanquished in 2022. Could former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., who won in a 2008 upset in a differently-drawn district and promptly lost in 2010, unseat Rep. John McGuire, R-Va.?
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is retiring. Former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage is running for Golden’s seat. Does LePage benefit from Democratic chaos in the effort to unseat Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine? After all, President Trump won one of Maine’s three electoral votes in 2024, capturing that congressional district over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
We could bounce around the map, district to district, all day like this. But sans a wave, that’s what you must do to properly filet the House races.
Most conventional arrows point in the direction of Democrats winning the House this fall. Yet it probably shouldn’t be this close.
That’s why you have to go by the playbook.
The only question is if this is the old playbook or new playbook?
politics, donald trump, midterm elections, elections, voting, congress
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Bomberos mantienen bajo vigilancia a más de 10 colonias en la capital hondureña por lluvias

Los suelos saturados de agua aumentan la posibilidad de nuevos incidentes en la capital hondureña, donde los cuerpos de socorro mantienen vigilancia permanente en sectores que ya han presentado derrumbes, crecidas de quebradas y otros efectos asociados a las precipitaciones.
“Hemos mantenido más de 10 colonias en vigilancia desde que comenzaron las lluvias. Esto es porque ha habido algún tipo de derrumbe. Son colonias donde, por lo general, cuando llueve causa crecida en algunas quebradas”, explicó el Cuerpo de Bomberos.
Los cuerpos de socorro detallaron que el monitoreo se mantiene debido a que las lluvias han incrementado la vulnerabilidad de diferentes sectores del Distrito Central. La saturación del suelo reduce su capacidad para absorber nuevas cantidades de agua, lo que puede favorecer la aparición de deslizamientos.
Además de los sectores considerados de mayor riesgo, los bomberos reportan afectaciones o mantienen vigilancia en Villanueva, Los Pinos, Honduras, Hato de Enmedio, Kennedy, El Carrizal, La Ulloa y La Brasil.

La situación podría complicarse si las precipitaciones continúan durante este martes 6 de octubre, por lo que los equipos de emergencia permanecerán atentos a posibles desbordamientos, derrumbes y otras situaciones que puedan poner en peligro a los habitantes de las zonas vulnerables.
Uno de los principales riesgos está relacionado con las quebradas que atraviesan diferentes sectores de la capital. Cuando se registran lluvias intensas, el caudal puede aumentar rápidamente y generar inundaciones en zonas cercanas.
A este escenario se suma la presencia de basura en calles, tragantes y cunetas, un problema que, según los bomberos, puede agravar las inundaciones al impedir que el agua circule y sea evacuada adecuadamente.
Los desechos acumulados pueden bloquear los sistemas de drenaje y provocar que el agua se concentre en determinados puntos. Esto significa que incluso sectores que normalmente no presentan problemas podrían registrar acumulaciones de agua durante precipitaciones fuertes.

Ante la posibilidad de nuevos incidentes, las autoridades recomiendan a la población mantenerse pendiente de los avisos meteorológicos y de las instrucciones de los organismos de emergencia, especialmente quienes viven en zonas cercanas a quebradas, laderas o sectores donde ya se han registrado derrumbes.
Los cuerpos de socorro también pidieron no transitar por calles inundadas, debido a que la profundidad del agua puede ser difícil de determinar y existir riesgos que no sean visibles para los conductores o peatones.
Asimismo, solicitaron a los ciudadanos evitar lanzar basura a las calles, debido a que los residuos pueden terminar en los sistemas de drenaje y aumentar el riesgo de inundaciones.

Las autoridades instaron además a reportar de inmediato cualquier deslizamiento, desbordamiento de quebradas o acumulación peligrosa de agua, con el objetivo de que los equipos de emergencia puedan intervenir oportunamente.
Mientras continúen las lluvias, el Cuerpo de Bomberos mantendrá el monitoreo de las colonias identificadas como vulnerables, con especial atención en aquellos sectores donde las precipitaciones ya han provocado derrumbes o incrementos en el caudal de las quebradas.
Los bomberos mantienen especial atención en las viviendas ubicadas cerca de laderas, quebradas y sectores donde el agua suele acumularse, ya que un cambio en las condiciones del terreno puede generar emergencias de manera repentina.

Ante cualquier señal de movimiento de tierra, grietas en paredes o pisos, caída de árboles o aumento inusual del caudal de una quebrada, se recomienda a los habitantes alejarse del área y buscar un sitio seguro.
Los cuerpos de socorro también exhortaron a los conductores a extremar las precauciones durante los desplazamientos, especialmente en horas de mayor precipitación, cuando pueden formarse corrientes de agua en las calles y reducirse considerablemente la visibilidad.
corresponsal:Desde Tegucigalpa, Honduras
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US could play role in united Ireland push after Trump’s backing, Irish PM says

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NEW YORK — Nearly three decades after the Good Friday Agreement transformed Northern Ireland, Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin said the United States could potentially play a role in a future push for a united Ireland following President Donald Trump’s backing for reunification.
Martin, whose Fianna Fáil party supports Irish unity, said the landmark 1998 agreement – which largely ended 30 years of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland known as «the Troubles» – created a peaceful mechanism for deciding Northern Ireland’s constitutional future, but cautioned that the deep divide between Northern Ireland’s nationalist and unionist communities must first be bridged.
«I believe in unity and my party believes in unity, but we have to work on it,» Martin told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview. «We have to build reconciliation among the different traditions on the island of Ireland.»
«The U.S. were critical to the success of peace and conflict resolution in Ireland,» Martin added.
IRISH PM REJECTS ANTISEMITISM CONCERNS IN IRELAND AMID DRAMATIC VOTE OVER BOYCOTTING ISRAEL GAME
President Donald Trump listens to Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin during their meeting in the Oval Office on March 17, 2026. Martin told Fox News Digital last month that the United States could potentially play a role in a future push for a united Ireland. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
Martin spoke to Fox News Digital during the U.N. General Assembly in New York at what he described as a global «crossroad,» with war raging in Ukraine, conflict across the Middle East and negotiations underway over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the interview, he repeatedly returned to Ireland’s own experience of conflict and peace as a guide to how the country approaches crises abroad, while defending the country’s long-standing policy of military neutrality despite its growing support for Ukraine.
The constitutional question of Irish unity gained renewed attention during Trump’s recent visit to Ireland last month, when the president said he would «love» to see Ireland unified and predicted it would eventually happen.
Asked during the Fox News Digital whether Washington could play a role again if Ireland eventually moves toward reunification, Martin replied: «To a degree maybe, potentially, yeah.»
Martin spoke before the latest confrontation over Garvaghy Road erupted in Portadown, reviving one of Northern Ireland’s most bitter marching disputes and underscoring how potent nationalist-unionist divisions remain.
The Parades Commission last month approved a limited Orange Order march along the mainly nationalist Garvaghy Road for the first time in 28 years. Residents and supporters blocked the route, while police declined to force the parade through amid fears of serious disorder.
The Orange Order is a Protestant organization whose members generally support Northern Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom, while many residents of the mainly nationalist Garvaghy Road community, who are predominantly Catholic, favor a united Ireland.
The standoff has since spilled into the courts and Stormont, where parliament meets, as efforts to broker a compromise continue.
Under the Good Friday Agreement, a referendum can be called if it appears a majority in Northern Ireland would support reunification. But Martin said more work is needed to define what a united Ireland would look like and deepen engagement on both sides of the border.

A van burns following the death of IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands in Belfast, Northern Ireland, on May 6, 1981. The image captures unrest during the Troubles, the decades-long conflict that preceded the Good Friday Agreement. (UPI/Bettmann Archive/Getty Images)
IRISH PM SAYS IRELAND ‘NOT OVERRUN’ BY IMMIGRANTS, LEGAL MIGRATION TIED TO ECONOMIC SUCCESS
UKRAINE AND THE SEARCH FOR PEACE
For Martin, however, the lessons of Northern Ireland’s peace process extend far beyond the island.
«Because of our conflict in Northern Ireland, we feel we can make a contribution to that conflict resolution pathway,» Martin said.
He said Ireland’s experience ending decades of violence now shapes how it approaches Russia’s war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and Europe’s increasingly uncertain security environment.
«We don’t get a sense that Russia is really interested at this particular stage,» Martin said of efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Martin, who had met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the previous evening, nevertheless argued that continued channels between Washington and Moscow were important.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, and President Donald Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner, right, and Steve Witkoff, left, meet in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sept. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
Asked whether a realistic peace settlement would ultimately require Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia, Martin rejected the premise.
«Ukraine can’t cede territory that Russia hasn’t even conquered, despite four years of war,» Martin said.
But he said a ceasefire along existing battle lines could provide a starting point for negotiations.
«If we even could get a ceasefire on existing lines, and then negotiations to start,» Martin said, adding that Kyiv would need protections against renewed Russian aggression. «Ukraine needs security guarantees.»
Martin also pointed to Ukraine’s path toward European Union membership as potentially providing an additional layer of security and said the broader security architecture between Europe and Russia would ultimately have to be addressed in negotiations.
«From our perspective, no one has the right to go into another country and take its territory,» Martin said.

Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin addresses the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept. 24, 2026. Martin used his address to criticize Israel’s conduct in Gaza and Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank. (Angela Weiss/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
HOW NEUTRAL IS IRELAND?
Ireland’s extensive support for Kyiv, however, raises a more contentious question at home: how far can a militarily neutral country support one side in a war while maintaining that neutrality?
Ireland has committed more than $754 million in humanitarian assistance, military training and other non-lethal support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 while stopping short of providing lethal weapons.
Fox News Digital asked Martin whether that level of support undermined Ireland’s neutrality.
«No, because we don’t give lethal aid, we haven’t given military weaponry, but we have given non-lethal assistance in terms of training and so on like that, and also humanitarian aid to Ukraine,» Martin said.
Ireland has also taken in large numbers of Ukrainians fleeing the war. Martin said more than 120,000 had arrived at one point, with roughly 80,000 remaining in the country at the time of the interview.
«That’s not taking sides, that’s taking a humanitarian response to a war,» Martin said. «And many are contributing, many are working in the economy.»
Ireland’s neutrality has also faced scrutiny over the long-standing use of Shannon Airport by the U.S. military.
NATO’s top military commander, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, described Shannon in August as a «very important logistics hub» for the United States and said withdrawing American military access would probably damage U.S.-Irish relations.
The airport’s role has long drawn protests from Irish neutrality campaigners, who argue that allowing U.S. military personnel and aircraft to transit through a civilian airport undermines the country’s neutral status.
Despite differing approaches to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Martin described the U.S.-Ireland relationship in almost familial terms.
«There’s a very strong bond between Ireland and the United States,» Martin said.
He pointed to the long-standing tradition of Irish leaders visiting the White House on St. Patrick’s Day and the enormous Irish American diaspora, which he estimated at roughly 30 million people.
«It’s just family, there’s kinship ties,» Martin said.
MIDDLE EAST
Martin said Ireland’s peace-process experience also informs its approach to the Middle East, where Dublin has emerged as one of Israel’s strongest European critics.
He condemned Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack and defended Israel’s right to security while arguing that the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza had been «absolutely disproportionate.»
«We believe in a two-state solution,» Martin said. «We believe that Israel, of course, has a right to exist in security and its people need to be guaranteed of security. But likewise, Palestinians should have a right to live in their homeland in a peaceful way.»
Martin said Ireland’s strongly anti-Israel position was shaped partly by its own history and what he described as a «sense of right and justice and fairness.»
WATCH: Irish PM explains Ireland’s position on Israel, rejects antisemitism concerns amid controversial soccer match
TRUMP’S INVESTMENT PUSH HITS EUROPE AS IRISH PM EYES NEXT TARIFF BREAK
EUROPE’S SECURITY
Ireland currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, placing Martin at the center of negotiations as Europe confronts its biggest security challenges in decades.
«There’s a big realization in Europe that we have to do more to provide greater security to Europe, particularly because of the Russian-Ukrainian war,» Martin said.
He pointed particularly to Baltic and Nordic countries, whose governments have increased defense spending amid fears about Russia.
«Many have an existential fear of Russia,» Martin said.
Martin said Europe was also tightening its approach to immigration, echoing comments he made elsewhere in the interview that asylum applications had fallen across Ireland and that governments across the continent were responding to mounting political pressure.
For Martin, those challenges — from Ukraine and the Middle East to Ireland’s own unfinished constitutional future —ultimately return to the lessons he believes his country learned through decades of conflict and the peace process that followed.
«The world needs to try and turn a page toward a more peaceful sort of coexistence,» Martin said.
WATCH: Irish PM explains how Ireland is responding to Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda
world, politics, ireland, ukraine, donald trump, europe, russia
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Unearthed social media posts contradict El-Sayed’s ‘capitalist’ narrative

Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, recently embraced the «capitalist» label and pushed back against being called socialist, but unearthed social media posts contradict that narrative.
Recently unearthed social media posts show the Detroit Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) chapter applauding his views on climate advocacy, going so far as to call him a «comrade» in its efforts.
«Welcome to the team comrade,» the group’s Detroit chapter wrote in a post in 2019 alongside a picture of El-Sayed, then a recent candidate for Michigan governor.
Shortly after El-Sayed endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in his presidential bid, the account again praised his support.
MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE ENDORSED BY AOC AND BERNIE SANDERS INSISTS HE’S NOT A SOCIALIST
«Thank you to our friend and ally Abdul El-Sayed for endorsing Bernie Sanders. Our movement is unstoppable,» the group wrote.
Although the DSA has not officially endorsed El-Sayed in his Senate bid or affirmed his platform, the DSA’s local support for him may raise questions of increased overlap between his platform and the DSA’s official stances.
In an interview with The New York Times, El-Sayed described his views on capitalism.
«Capitalism is about leveraging the laws of supply and demand to efficiently allocate capital expenditure to maximize value. When capitalism works, it’s because you have free entry and exit into markets,» El-Sayed said.
«So if you believe in capitalism, you have to believe in government regulation to protect markets. In fact, right now, we have exactly the opposite. You don’t have to be a socialist to believe that you should be taxing billionaires their wealth,» he continued. «In fact, if you are a capitalist, you should believe in that. So, I’m a capitalist who just knows about capitalism. I have a bad habit of reading; I’m so sorry.»
Among other stances, El-Sayed has championed policies like Medicare for All, increasing taxes on the country’s top earners and implementing more stringent penalties on businesses that, in his view, abuse natural resources like water supply and air quality.
In his 2018 campaign for governor, El-Sayed espoused many of the same views, garnering support from the DSA — especially for his platform on climate.
At one point, El-Sayed joined in calls to seize plants owned by General Motors after the company announced it would cut about 14,000 jobs from sites across the country.
GREEN NEW DODGE: EL-SAYED RUNS FROM POLICY AS NEWLY SURFACED DELETED POSTS SHOW YEARS OF SUPPORT
«Today, Abdul El-Sayed signed onto our bold demand to seize abandoned [General Motors] plants and convert them into green, public use. This is the courage and vision we need from our leaders to make the Green New Deal a reality. Thank you, Dr. El-Sayed! Onward!» The group wrote.
El-Sayed was among 140 co-signers for the plan, including figures like Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., and Natasha Fernández-Silber, the co-chair of the Detroit DSA.
«These facilities are not just the ‘property’ of a corporation. They belong to the workers who have contributed their labor, and the taxpayers who have provided enormous tax breaks, public subsidies and bailouts to GM,» the resolution read.
Between 2017 and 2020, the Michigan Democrat spoke at six events held by Democratic Socialists of America chapters, including a 2019 fundraiser where he served as the keynote speaker. Additionally, DSA officials told Politico in July that they were mobilizing resources to help El-Sayed win his Democratic primary election.
«I’m not technically or practically DSA,» El-Sayed told the Wall Street Journal in July.
Socialist organizers, however, have called him «a longtime friend of Detroit DSA.»
«Our annual fundraiser is going to be [fire] this year. Chaired by the one and only Rashida Tlaib, with guest speaker Abdul El-Sayed,» another post reads.
«Our annual Douglas-Debs Dinner is THIS SATURDAY! The one and only Rashida Tlaib will give the keynote, with special guest speaker Abdul El-Sayed. Don’t miss out. Get your tickets today!» another stated.
For its own part, the national platform for the DSA goes well beyond the proposals that El-Sayed has made a part of his Senate bid.
JONATHAN TURLEY: ABDUL EL-SAYED’S WEALTH-TAX FANTASY COULD WRECK THE MICHIGAN ECONOMY
Among other positions, the group has championed abolishing the U.S. Senate, establishing public ownership of the country’s largest corporations and defunding the Department of Defense — stances that El-Sayed has not voiced support for.
El-Sayed’s campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment on whether El-Sayed believes the past support from the Detroit DSA undermines his claims about what he believes about capitalism.
Having cleared the Democratic primary, El-Sayed will face off against Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers on Nov. 3.
Fox News’ Robert Schmad contributed to this report
politics, abdul el sayed, rise of socialism, bernie sanders, rashida tlaib
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