A leading nonpartisan political handicapper predicts that the Democrats’ path to winning back the Senate majority in this year’s midterm elections is getting wider thanks to a rough political climate for the GOP, but that capturing control of the chamber remains a «tall order.»

The Cook Political Report on Monday shifted the ratings in four key Senate races in favor of the Democrats, but added that Republicans «remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber.»

Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47 but are battling stiff political headwinds, as the party in power in the nation’s capital traditionally loses seats in the midterms. The GOP faces a rough political climate fueled by economic concerns amid persistent inflation, as well as rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.

«Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a one to three seat Democratic pickup — still just out of reach of the four seats the party needs to reclaim the majority,» Cook Report Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor said in a release.

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The Cook Report shifted the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis in battleground North Carolina from toss-up to lean Democrat. Former two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in what will likely be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate showdowns in the nation this autumn.

In battleground Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for a second six-year term, the Cook Report also moved the race from toss-up to lean Democrat. Republicans view Ossoff as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat seeking re-election this year, but he has built a massive war chest while the GOP faces a three-way primary battle for its nomination.

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In red-leaning Ohio, where appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted will face off in November against former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Cook Report shifted their ranking from lean Republican to toss up, noting that «even recent GOP polling» has indicated the race is all knotted up.

The Cook Report also shifted Nebraska, a red state where GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts will face a general election challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn, from solid Republican to likely Republican.

President Donald Trump is facing low polling numbers in the wake of the Iran conflict and rising gas prices. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

«We concede that these ratings changes are coming as Trump is at a new polling low and still navigating a yet-to-be-resolved war in Iran. So it’s possible things could rebound for his party or that they could find a rallying cry to get his base out in November — a summer Supreme Court retirement certainly wouldn’t hurt,» Taylor noted.

And she pointed out that «Democrats are still contending with messy primary fights in Maine, Michian, Minnesota and Iowa, where Republicans are rooting for flawed or bruised nominees to emerge. And Republicans will have a significant institutional financial advantage.»

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National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair, Sen. Tim Scott, acknowledged in a Fox News Digital interview last month that «there’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult by the day, it seems like at times.»

But Scott added that he remains «incredibly optimistic» the GOP can not only hold but expand its current majority.

The rival Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), in an email to supporters titled «Democratic Odds of Taking the Senate Increase as Four Ratings Shift in Their Favor,» spotlighted the Cook Report’s ratings shift.

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Earlier this year, DSCC chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital she was «very optimistic that with the quality of candidates that we have, with the recruiting failures and the poor candidates the Republicans have, and this very harmful climate that President Trump is creating, we have all the makings of a blue wave.»

El cruce con el papa León

El posteo de Trump sobre el Papa León XIV. Foto: Truth Social

Las imágenes generadas por IA de Trump

The push to forcibly remove multiple scandal-ridden members of Congress is picking up steam with several potential expulsion votes on deck this week.

Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, are expected to face an immediate expulsion threat when the House returns from a two-week recess on Tuesday. 

Swalwell, who dropped out of California’s 2026 gubernatorial race Sunday, is facing multiple sexual assault and misconduct allegations, including at least one involving a former staffer. The Manhattan district attorney’s office has also opened a criminal investigation into an incident that allegedly occurred in New York City.

Swalwell has repeatedly characterized the allegations as «false,» though he acknowledged a lack of judgment on Sunday. He has pledged to vigorously defend himself.

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Gonzales, who has admitted to having an affair with a staff member who later died by setting herself on fire, dropped his re-election bid in March after House GOP leadership called on him to suspend his campaign. He is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., said over the weekend that she would introduce a resolution to expel Swalwell from the chamber if he does not resign. Meanwhile, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez, D-N.M., is vowing to draft a measure that would expel Gonzales.

The female lawmakers have said they support expelling both men from the House of Representatives. A growing share of lawmakers in both parties appear to share that view.

«That vote comes to the floor, I will be voting yes on both measures,» Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., said on NBC’s «Meet the Press» on Sunday. «These allegations are despicable, and they demean the integrity of Congress. These things are just completely unacceptable. And as far as I’m concerned, both gentlemen need to go home.»

«I think that this is very important that we believe women and that we show people across the Capitol and across the country that we will not accept this kind of behavior,» Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., also said.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna departed the U.S. Capitol following a series of House votes on March 5, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

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Expelling a member of Congress is an incredibly high bar, and it is currently unclear whether both expulsion resolutions can obtain the two-thirds majority required to pass. To be successful, a significant portion of lawmakers will have to vote in favor of removing a member of their own party.

Former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., who was removed from the House in 2023, is the most recent member to be expelled. President Donald Trump pardoned Santos in 2025 after he was convicted of wire fraud and identity theft and sentenced to more than seven years in prison.

Both House Republican and Democratic leadership have yet to comment on rank-and-file efforts to expel Swalwell and Gonzales.

Reps. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D-Fla., and Cory Mills, R-Fla., could also become potential targets of expulsion resolutions, though just a handful of members have thus far signaled they would support the removal of the lawmaker from their own party.

«They should resign IMMEDIATELY. If they don’t, we should expel all of them,» Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., wrote on social media Sunday, referring to Swalwell and Gonzales, too. 

Cherfilus-McCormick is facing more than five decades in prison after allegedly funneling more than $5 million in disaster relief money to fund her congressional campaign and personal lifestyle.

A House Ethics adjudicatory subcommittee in March found her guilty of more than two dozen violations as part of an investigation separate from the federal criminal indictment. The panel is expected to formally recommend its suggested punishment later this month, which could be as severe as expulsion. 

House Democratic leadership has indicated they will withhold judgment on Cherfilus-McCormick until the ethics panel announces its decision.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormic was indicted by a Miami grand jury for allegedly stealing $5M FEMA funds on Wed, Nov. 18, according to the Department of Justice. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images)

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Mills, a former Army combat veteran, has faced myriad controversies, including allegedly misrepresenting his military service, domestic violence and threatening to release sexually explicit photos of a former girlfriend, and abusing his committee assignments to benefit defense contracting firms he owns. He is also the target of a House Ethics Committee investigation.

Both lawmakers have denied any wrongdoing and are running for re-election.