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Trump squeezes Iran with maximum pressure — why it hasn’t forced a breakthrough
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After two months of conflict, neither a deadly bombing campaign nor a blockade on Iranian exports has forced Tehran to make the concessions the Trump administration is seeking.
The campaign has intensified in recent weeks, targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial networks while a naval blockade has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows. U.S. officials argue the combination of military pressure and economic isolation is intended to weaken Iran’s capabilities and force it back to the negotiating table on more favorable terms.
While the U.S. has killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top military and political figures, the regime itself remains intact. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was selected to succeed him, and leadership remains firmly hardline.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said the administration may have misjudged the type of negotiating partner it would face.
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«Trump was looking for an Iranian Delcy Rodriguez,» he told Fox News Digital. «More likely, he’s going to end up with an Iranian Kim Jong Un.»
The campaign has intensified in recent weeks, targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial networks while a naval blockade has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows. (CENTCOM)
He expressed doubt that any decisive victory was possible while the current Iranian regime remained in power.
«And we do not have the capacity to remove the regime.»
The standoff increasingly has become a test of whether U.S. pressure can be converted into political concessions — or whether it is instead being diluted through workarounds, institutional resilience and competing constraints.
So far, analysts say, Iran has proven more capable of absorbing and rerouting pressure than Washington has been able to translate it into durable gains.
On Monday, Iran floated a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for relief from the blockade, while deferring negotiations on more contentious issues.
But analysts caution that such proposals do not address the core dispute and may not even mean the same thing to both sides.
«What the Iranians mean by opening the straits, and what Trump means, may be two different sorts of things,» Miller said.
At the center of the standoff is Iran’s nuclear program, where the gap between the two sides remains wide. The Trump administration has pushed for Iran to eliminate its uranium enrichment capability entirely, while Iran insists that enrichment is a sovereign right and non-negotiable — leaving little room for compromise.
CENTCOM shared footage of strikes against airplanes amid Iran war (U.S. Central Command on X)
That divide continues to block a broader agreement, even as both sides explore more limited steps to reduce immediate tensions.
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«It’s almost unimaginable that this administration and the Iranian leadership are willing to make the kinds of concessions that would allow this administration to walk away with a win,» Miller said.
«Iranians are willing to give concessions, but Trump is looking for capitulation,» said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft think tank. «And you can’t get a country to capitulate unless you have defeated them.»
Instead of folding under pressure, Iran largely has responded by adapting.
Despite the blockade, Iran has continued to move at least some oil through workaround methods, including sanctioned vessels, smaller ports and alternative routing strategies, even as overall exports have come under strain.
Those efforts have expanded in recent weeks. Reports indicate Iran is exploring overland shipments, including potential rail exports to China, while vessels have increasingly rerouted through Iranian territorial waters or controlled shipping corridors to bypass restrictions.
«The United States successfully closes off one avenue for them, and slowly but surely they are finding workarounds,» Parsi said.
The financial impact of the campaign has been significant, even if uneven. Estimates vary, but some analysts put Iran’s potential losses from the blockade at roughly $400 million per day, largely driven by disrupted oil exports and reduced access to hard currency.
At the same time, Iran has not been fully cut off. The country has continued to generate billions in oil revenue in recent months, underscoring both the scale of the pressure and its limits.
While a sustained drop in oil revenue would strain the government’s official budget and force cuts to public spending, the country’s most powerful institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, operates through its own economic networks, including smuggling routes and cross-border trade.
That allows key parts of the regime to continue functioning even under heavy sanctions, meaning economic pain often falls unevenly — hitting civilians before it weakens the state’s coercive apparatus.
«Trump was looking for an Iranian Delcy Rodriguez. More likely, he’s going to end up with an Iranian Kim Jong Un.» (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/The Associated Press )
Even attempts to directly destabilize Iran’s leadership have not fundamentally altered that dynamic. U.S. and Israeli operations earlier in the conflict killed Khamenei along with dozens of senior military and political figures.
Yet the regime has remained intact, with power consolidating among remaining political and security elites aligned with hardline positions.
How long Iran can sustain that posture remains uncertain. Miller said a prolonged blockade could eventually force a breaking point — but only if Washington is willing to maintain it.
«If the administration is prepared for six months to keep up this blockade, I think they could probably break the Iranian economy,» Miller said.
But he cautioned that such timelines are difficult to predict and that even U.S. intelligence lacks a clear picture of when economic pressure might translate into political concessions.
That uncertainty raises a broader question about the sustainability of the strategy. While Iran’s leadership may be willing to absorb significant economic pain, the U.S. faces its own constraints, including potential strain on military resources and growing risks to global energy markets.
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«There are no midterms. There are no primaries. There are no sell-by dates for Iran,» Miller said. «And Trump has a sell-by date.»
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
For now, both sides appear to be waiting for the other to lose the political will to sustain the standoff, with global energy markets caught in the middle.
ali khamenei, nuclear proliferation, war with iran, iran, sanctions
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Swing-seat Republican sidelined by ‘serious’ illness misses 88 votes as majority hangs by thread
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An absent House lawmaker is expected to miss several more weeks of work after vanishing from Capitol Hill and the campaign trail due to an undisclosed illness.
Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J., has not voted in more than two months as House Republicans’ slim majority races to approve must-pass legislation ahead of the midterm elections.
His father, former Gov. Tom Kean Sr., R-N.J., says his son may not return to Washington until June or later as he recovers from a «serious» illness.
«You can’t say definitely, but their best guess is now he’ll be out in two or three weeks,» Kean Sr., told NJ.com in an interview last week, referring his son’s doctors. «Any time you’ve been through a serious illness, you can’t be 100% the day you get back. You’re gonna be able to do things, but gradually ramping up.»
Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., R-N.J., who is recovering from an undisclosed illness, last voted on March 5. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)
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«When he can start to go to Congress again, that’s something the doctor wants to reserve judgment on,» he added.
Kean Jr., 57, last voted on March 5 and has missed all 88 roll call votes in the lower chamber since then, according to GovTrack, a website that monitors congressional absences.
Representatives for the New Jersey Republican have contended for weeks that he will restart his congressional duties «soon,» but that timeline has remained vague.
A spokesperson for Kean Jr. did not immediately respond to a request for comment about when the two-term lawmaker plans to return to Washington.
Kean Sr. did not elaborate about where his son is receiving treatment for the undisclosed diagnosis, but confirmed he is under the care of multiple doctors.
He also declined to disclose the nature of his son’s illness, telling CNN, «That’s up to him.» The former two-term governor added that doctors expect Kean Jr. to make a full recovery.
Since March, Kean Jr.’s office has characterized the congressman’s diagnosis as a «personal health matter» and declined to share specifics.
A top aide for Kean Jr. told The New York Times last week, «There’s no cameras where Tom is.»
The public last heard from Kean Jr. in late April when he released a public statement, saying, «I will be back to the job I love very soon.»
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Kean Sr. also said that he expects his son to run for re-election despite his disappearance from the campaign trail.
«I think that’s the way he’s going, yeah,» he told the outlet.
Kean Jr.’s ongoing health issues come as national Democrats are aggressively targeting the swing seat Kean Jr. has represented since 2023. Four relatively well-funded challengers, including emergency room physician Tina Shah, are vying for the Democratic nomination ahead of a June 2 primary.
Kean Jr. is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.
Republicans in Washington have grown increasingly concerned about Kean Jr.’s prolonged absence, which has an outsize impact on GOP lawmakers’ fragile majority.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks at a press conference with House Republican leaders at the Republican National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C., on May 13, 2026. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu)
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The House is expected to vote on legislation this week funding President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda, where House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., will likely need near-full attendance from Republicans amid widespread opposition from Democrats.
Johnson told reporters last week that he is praying for Kean Jr’s swift recovery but is in the dark about the nature of the New Jersey Republican’s ailment.
«He said he was out on a medical issue, and he’ll be back as soon as possible,» the speaker said. «That’s the full extent of what I know about it. It’s a personal thing, and obviously I told him that we’re praying for him, and I need him to get back as soon as he can.»
politics, mike johnson, donald trump, new jersey, republicans, house of representatives politics
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Tragedia en las islas Maldivas: encontraron los cuerpos de los cuatro buzos italianos que estaban desaparecidos
Los cuerpos de los cuatro buzos italianos que estaban desaparecidos en una cueva submarina de las islas Maldivas fueron localizados por un equipo de profesionales finlandeses que se sumó al operativo de rescate. La tragedia ya había causado una fuerte conmoción en el país asiático luego de la muerte de un rescatista local durante las tareas de búsqueda.
El accidente ocurrió el jueves cuando cinco buzos murieron mientras exploraban cuevas marinas a unos 50 metros de profundidad en Alimathaa, uno de los sitios de buceo más populares del atolón maldivo. Las autoridades consideran que se trata del peor accidente de buceo individual registrado en la pequeña nación del Océano Índico.
El viernes había sido recuperado el cuerpo de uno de los integrantes del grupo dentro de Thinwana Kandu, conocida también como la “Cueva del Tiburón”, a unos 60 metros de profundidad. Durante el fin de semana continuó la búsqueda de las otras cuatro víctimas.
Sin embargo, el operativo quedó marcado por otra muerte. El sábado murió el sargento mayor Mohamed Mahudhee, un buzo de rescate de las Fuerzas de Defensa Nacional de Maldivas, que había sido hospitalizado en estado crítico.
Durante el domingo, tres especialistas finlandeses llegaron a la zona y su participación permitió avanzar finalmente en la localización de los cuerpos restantes. Los espeleobuzos Sami Paakkarinen, Jenni Westerlund y Patrik Grönqvist trabajaron junto a militares y otros funcionarios maldivos en medio de condiciones marítimas y climáticas adversas.
Giorgia Sommacal murió junto a su madre en la expedición. (Foto: gentileza Il Giornale)
Las víctimas fueron identificadas como Monica Montefalcone, profesora asociada de ecología en la Universidad de Génova; su hija Giorgia Sommacal; el biólogo marino Federico Gualtieri; la investigadora Muriel Oddenino; y el instructor de buceo Gianluca Benedetti.
Según explicaron las autoridades, el cuerpo de Benedetti había sido encontrado cerca de la entrada de la cueva, mientras que los otros cuatro buzos se encontraban más adentro del sistema submarino.
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La tragedia abrió además una investigación para intentar determinar qué ocurrió durante la inmersión. El portavoz de la presidencia de Maldivas, Mohamed Hussain Shareef, indicó que la cueva es extremadamente profunda y afirmó que incluso buzos altamente preparados evitan acercarse a ese sector.
En paralelo, el operador turístico italiano Albatros Top Boat negó haber autorizado una inmersión de ese tipo. A través de su representante legal, Orietta Stella, la empresa sostuvo que desconocía que el grupo planeaba descender a más de 30 metros, profundidad que requiere permisos especiales de las autoridades marítimas maldivas.
Gianluca Benedetti era el capitán del yate y sy cuerpo fue encontrado el viernes. (Foto: gentileza Divernet).
También señaló que la excursión había sido organizada originalmente como una expedición científica para tomar muestras de coral a profundidades estándar y no para realizar espeleobuceo profundo.
Otro punto bajo análisis es el tipo de equipamiento utilizado. Según trascendió, los buzos eran experimentados, pero habrían utilizado equipos recreativos convencionales y no material técnico específico para exploración de cuevas profundas.
Las autoridades además investigan si el grupo ingresó a la cueva sin guía local, algo que exige la normativa de Maldivas, y si utilizaron el denominado “hilo de Ariadna”, una cuerda de seguridad obligatoria en ciertos sistemas submarinos para mantener la orientación y encontrar la salida.
Monica Montefalcone, que formó parte del grupo de cinco buzos italianos que murieron cerca de Alimathaa en el archipiélago de las Maldivas cuando exploraban una cueva submarina. (Foto: Greenpeace vía AP)
Mientras tanto, distintas hipótesis intentan explicar qué sucedió bajo el agua. La policía no descarta que el mal clima y la escasa visibilidad hayan provocado desorientación dentro de la cueva. Según publicó el diario italiano La Repubblica, el hecho de que ninguno de los cinco lograra salir podría indicar que el grupo se perdió en el interior del sistema submarino y quedó atrapado.
Otra posibilidad analizada es que alguno de los integrantes haya quedado atascado y que el resto intentara asistirlo hasta quedarse sin aire o entrar en pánico.
Expertos en buceo también mencionaron la posibilidad de una toxicidad por oxígeno causada por una mezcla inadecuada de gases en los tanques. Alfonso Bolognini, presidente de la Sociedad Italiana de Medicina Subacuática e Hiperbárica, explicó que a 50 metros de profundidad existen riesgos severos y que una crisis hiperóxica puede provocar problemas neurológicos y ataques de pánico. “Dentro de una cueva a 50 metros de profundidad, todo supone un problema para un buceador”, señaló.
Muriel Oddenino es otra de las científicas que murieron en Maldivas. (Foto: gentileza Divernet).
El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Italia, Antonio Tajani, aseguró que el gobierno hará todo lo posible para repatriar los cuerpos de las víctimas. Además, desde el ministerio informó que trabaja junto a Divers Alert Network, una organización especializada en buceo, para colaborar con las tareas de recuperación.
Entre las historias que surgieron tras la tragedia, una de las más conmovedoras fue la de Monica Montefalcone y su hija Giorgia. Carlo Sommacal, esposo de Monica y padre de Giorgia, contó que su mujer acostumbraba llevar una cámara GoPro durante las inmersiones y consideró que esas imágenes podrían ayudar a esclarecer lo ocurrido.
“Mi esposa era una de las mejores buceadoras del mundo”, aseguró. También sostuvo que ella jamás habría puesto en peligro a su hija ni al resto del grupo y deslizó que algo inesperado debió haber sucedido bajo el agua. El hombre reveló además que Giorgia tenía previsto graduarse de la universidad el próximo mes y que la familia estaba organizando una fiesta para celebrarlo.
Las otras víctimas también tenían una extensa trayectoria vinculada al buceo y la biología marina. Muriel Oddenino, de 31 años, era bióloga marina y autora de publicaciones científicas. Federico Gualtieri, también de 31, se había graduado recientemente en biología marina y ecología en la Universidad de Génova.
Benedetti, de 44 años, era instructor de buceo, capitán de barco y jefe de operaciones del yate Duke of York, utilizado por el grupo durante la expedición. Vivía en Maldivas desde 2017, después de dejar atrás una carrera en banca y finanzas para dedicarse de lleno al buceo.
Las autoridades continúan intentando reconstruir los últimos movimientos del grupo mientras avanzan las pericias para determinar qué provocó la tragedia submarina.
islas maldivas, tragedia, buzos, Italianos
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